Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 04BRASILIA1512, ECONOMIC GROWTH RETURNS; PROBLEMS REMAIN

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #04BRASILIA1512.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
04BRASILIA1512 2004-06-18 19:05 2011-07-11 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Brasilia
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

181905Z Jun 04
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001512 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA - O'REILLY 
NSC FOR DEMPSEY, CRUZ 
TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND SSEGAL 
STATE PLS PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBATAILLE 
USDA FOR U/S PENN, FAS/FAA/TERPSTRA 
USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/DMCDOUGALL/ADRISCOLL 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSON/WBASTIAN 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL EINV BR
SUBJECT:  ECONOMIC GROWTH RETURNS; PROBLEMS REMAIN 
 
REFS: A) Brasilia 463   B) Brasilia 1275 
 
This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified, please protect 
accordingly. 
 
1.   (SBU) Summary:  Latest official figures show the 
Brazilian economy grew a solid 1.6% in the first quarter of 
2004, the second consecutive quarter of growth at an annual 
rate of over 6%.  This still-preliminary growth data has 
been recently reinforced by, among other positive data 
points, news that industrial production in the first four 
months of 2004 climbed 6.1% above the first four months of 
2003.  Pundits have responded with alacrity to these hints 
of the real economy's recovery from Brazil's 2002/2003 
financial storm, with a cover story in newsweekly `Veja' 
proclaiming Finance Minister Palocci now Lula's most popular 
minister and the man who "wins them all."  Ideally, this 
favorable turn of fortunes should give the GoB much-needed 
political room to pursue its broader economic-reform agenda. 
The June 17 Senate defeat of Lula's minimum-wage bill, 
however, illustrates how coalition and perhaps government 
infighting are keeping the GoB on the policy defensive 
against the background of the looming October municipal 
elections.  The prospect of long-term sustained economic 
growth seems little closer.  End summary. 
 
2.   (U) GoB end-May figures show the Brazilian economy grew 
1.6% in the first quarter of 2004, as compared to the fourth 
quarter of 2003.  The numbers are consistent with a trend of 
strong growth (over 6% annualized) beginning in the fourth 
quarter of 2003.  Agriculture continued as the leading 
growth sector on the supply side, registering a 3.3% 
increase, while industry grew 1.7% and services rose by a 
much more measured 0.4%.  On the demand side, the continued 
export boom and the third consecutive quarterly increase in 
investment combined to lead growth.  Private consumption, 
while up 0.3%, increased far less than the 1.5% of the 
previous quarter.  Overall growth is the strongest since 
2000, but, unlike then, Brazil in 2004 is racking up record 
exports and a current-account surplus. 
 
 
                        Brazilian GDP 
            Percent Growth - Seasonally Adjusted 
 
 
                 Annual/1       Quarterly Growth/2 
               2002   2003    2Q03   3Q03    4Q03   1Q04 
 
Total GDP      1.9    -0.2    -0.9    0.5     1.5    1.6 
 
Supply Side 
 - Agriculture 5.5     5.0     1.0   -4.6     5.6    3.3 
 - Industry    2.6    -1.0    -3.7    3.0     1.8    1.7 
 - Services    1.6    -0.1    -0.1    0.2     0.8    0.4 
 
Demand Side 
 - Consumption 
   (Private)  -0.4    -3.3    -1.2    0.5     1.5    0.3 
 - Govt.       1.4     0.6     0.3    0.0     0.2    0.8 
 - Investment -4.2    -6.6    -7.1    3.2     4.0    2.3 
 - Exports     7.9    14.2     6.2    0.8     5.7    5.6 
 - Imports   -12.3    -1.9    -1.9    0.7     8.2    4.0 
     /1 Percent Change on Previous Year 
     /2 Percent Change on Previous Quarter 
     Source: Statistics and Geographic Institute (IBGE) 
 
3.   (U) A host of other recent data points seem to 
underline the trend of economic recovery.  April retail 
sales were up 9.9% over April 2003.  Industrial production 
was up 6.1% in the first four months of 2004 compared to the 
same period of 2003.  Complete industrial production data 
for May is not yet available, but production of paper 
packaging materials, a barometer for broader industrial 
activity, was up 15.7% in May 2004 over May 2003.  Vehicle 
production rose 7.6% in the same period.  A Getulio Vargas 
Foundation (FGV) survey of manufacturing enterprises found 
capacity utilization in several sectors (textiles, 
detergents, paper, rubber, metals) at 90% or greater; an 
increasing number of business reported investment plans to 
increase capacity.  Consistent with that survey, the value 
of financing requests with BNDES, the national development 
bank, almost tripled in Jan-May 2004 compared to Jan-May 
2003. 
 
4.   (U) The dark linings behind this silver cloud are the 
weak growth of private consumption in the first quarter, 
plus the slow rate of growth of investment.  Exacerbating 
these factors, the Central Bank's monetary policy committee 
voted June 16 to keep interest rates unchanged at 16%, in 
the wake of recent inflation data and increasing 
inflationary expectations in the market.  There is growing 
belief that interest rates are unlikely to be cut further in 
the near future.  Also, some doubts have been raised about 
the accuracy of the quarterly growth statistics, as they are 
based on a new industrial production index that some 
commentators allege was not fully calibrated before being 
pressed into use. 
 
5.   (U) The latest growth data nevertheless has given the 
GOB some welcome relief from the almost constant criticism 
of the recent past.  In particular, Palocci's apparent trip 
from the public-opinion doghouse to the cover of leading 
national weekly news magazine Veja, under the headline 
"Palocci Wins Them All," has been striking.  Suddenly, PT 
leader Genoino is declaring that Palocci will be used as a 
prime asset on the campaign trail to stump for PT party 
candidates in October's municipal elections.  Demands for a 
major overhaul of economic policy, which were becoming ever 
more widespread within Lula's own coalition base, have for 
now faded. 
 
6. (SBU) Ideally, these apparent buds of economic recovery 
should create a positive atmosphere for the Lula 
administration to work with the Congress on its broader 
structural and microeconomic reform agenda -- a necessity 
for sustained and strengthened growth.  But in real life, 
the GoB remains as much as ever on the policy defensive, 
hobbled by persistent lack of party discipline, both within 
and without the PT, and by the ramshackle nature of Lula's 
political coalition and the GoB's scandal-diminished 
political stature (ref B).  Most recently, on June 17 Lula's 
bill to increase the minimum wage to no more than Reals 260 
was voted down in the Senate, despite the administration's 
having pulled out all the stops to gain passage (septel). 
And elsewhere on the fiscal front: the Supreme Court may 
soon rule against the constitutionality of taxing 
pensioners, a crucial piece of last year's public-sector 
pension reform. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (SBU) With the exception of export growth, there is no 
clear sign yet that the recovery of the last two quarters is 
much more than a still modest, natural bounce-back after the 
extreme recessionary fallout from the 2002 financial crisis. 
Without its continued export and agricultural success, 
Brazil's overall economy would still be struggling by any 
standard.  Spreading and sustaining growth in the longer 
term depends on microeconomic and structural reform measures 
to increase efficiency and bring investment.  The realities 
of coalition politics in this municipal election year, 
however, look set to delay most of this agenda.  Many 
independent analysts look for growth to attenuate as the 
cyclical recovery plays out. 
 
HRINAK