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Viewing cable 03ANKARA6269, POWERFUL RALLY ON CONFLUENCE OF POSITIVE NEWS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
03ANKARA6269 2003-10-06 15:45 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Ankara
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

061545Z Oct 03
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
STATE FOR E, EB/IFD, AND EUR/SE 
TREASURY FOR OASIA - MMILLS AND JLEICHTER 
NSC FOR BRYZA AND MCKIBBEN 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN PREL TU
SUBJECT: POWERFUL RALLY ON CONFLUENCE OF POSITIVE NEWS 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 6001 
     B. ANKARA 6122 
     C. ANKARA 6209 
     D. ANKARA 6231 
     E. ANKARA 6241 
 
 
 1. (Sbu) Turkish markets rocketed forward on October 6 in 
reaction to several bits of positive news over the weekend. 
The High Election Council's decision not to invalidate last 
year's election, better-than-expected inflation numbers,  GOT 
movement toward a parliamentary resolution on troops for 
Iraq, and premature press reports of progress on the IMF's 
Sixth Review combined to send markets forward.  The stock 
market rose 10.62 percent, interest rates fell over two 
hundred basis points to 32.82 percent, and the lira hit TL 
1,367,643 per dollar. The stock market level and interest 
rates attained are records for 2003.  End Summary. 
 
 
NEW RALLY STARTED FRIDAY: 
------------------------ 
 
 
2. (Sbu) Turkish markets' rally paused last week, as 
profit-taking and worries about a possible High Election 
Council invalidation of the November 2002 election results 
(ref B) caused stock prices to ease and the benchmark 
treasury bill to stay over 34 percent Monday through 
Thursday. Adding to market worries last week were signs of 
increasing politicization of the U.S. credit, including 
critical comments by military leaders (ref C).  On Thursday, 
the lira closed above TL 1.4 million to the dollar.  On 
Friday, October 3, however, the markets returned to their 
earlier bullishness, encouraged by continued strong export 
data and indications of U.S.-Turkish cooperation on the 
PKK-Kadek issue.  On Friday, the IMKB 100 stock market index 
closed up 2.3 percent, the lira was at 1,395,742 per dollar 
and the benchmark treasury bill at 34.97.        . 
 
 
CONFLUENCE OF POSITIVE NEWS OVER THE WEEKEND: 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (Sbu) Just as the markets closed Friday, the Central Bank 
announced better-than-expected inflation numbers for 
September.  The Consumer Price Index was up 1.9 percent, and 
the Wholesale Price Index increased only 0.1 percent. The 
good inflation numbers are to a large extent attributable to 
the strong lira. However, these numbers reinforce earlier 
indications and private comments to Emboffs from key GOT 
officials that the full-year CPI numbers will hit the IMF 
program's 20 percent target and that full-year WPI numbers 
could beat the target. 
 
 
4. (Sbu) On Saturday, the High Election Council removed a big 
worry by ruling that it would not invalidate the results of 
the November 2002 elections.  Press reports over the weekend 
and Monday morning also suggested that the GOT was moving to 
ask Parliament for authorization to contribute Turkish troops 
to the Iraq stabilization force.  Since any such troop 
contribution would help U.S.-Turkish relations, this was an 
additional positive for markets. At the end of the day, the 
GOT announced it was submitting a motion on trooops to 
parliament this evening. 
 
 
6. (Sbu) One local newspaper prematurely reported in its 
Monday morning edition that the GOT was near agreement with 
the IMF mission currently in town to work on the Sixth 
Review.  Whether or not markets put much stock in this 
report, several newspapers reported that the 2004 budget was 
sufficiently prepared to be presented to the GOT's High 
Planning Council, and that the budget included ambitious and 
IMF-blessed macroeconomic targets: a 6.5 percent primary 
surplus, 5 percent GDP growth and 12 percent inflation on a 
CPI basis. 
 
 
MARKETS JUMP ON MONDAY: 
---------------------- 
 
 
7. (Sbu) With all this good news, and nothing negative to 
slow down the bulls, the markets surged forward at the 
opening.  By the close, the TL was at 1,367,643, the IMKB 100 
was up 10.62 percent to 15,719 and the benchmark treasury 
bill had fallen over 200 basis points from 34.97 percent at 
the closing Friday to 32.82 percent.  In addition to being 
records for the year in the stock and Treasury bond markets, 
the benchmark interest rate was at its lowest level since 
pre-crisis August 2000.  In fact, in 2000 the benchmark was 
only a six-month maturity, making the current twelve-month 
benchmark interest rate's relatively low level that much more 
impressive. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EDELMAN