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Viewing cable 02HARARE2310, FARM WORKERS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
02HARARE2310 2002-10-21 11:35 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Harare
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

211135Z Oct 02
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002310 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KHANDAGLE, BORNS, AND MARX 
DCHA/FFP FOR LANDIS, BRAUSE, SKORIC, AND PETERSON 
AFR/SA FOR POE, FORT AND MARJORIE COPSON 
AFR/SD FOR ISRALOW AND WHELAN 
STATE FOR AF/S DELISI AND RAYNOR 
STATE/INR FOR LESLIE CURTIN AND WILLIAM WOOD 
NAIROBI FOR DCHA/OFDA/ARO FOR RILEY AND MYER, 
REDSO/ESA/FFP FOR SENYKOFF 
NSC FOR DWORKIN 
PRETORIA FOR DCHA/FFP DISKIN, DCHA/OFDA BRYAN, AND 
USDA/FAS HELM 
ROME FOR LAVELLE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: FARM WORKERS 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES 
INHIBITING CROP PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, AND EQUITABLE 
DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING, COMBINED WITH LOWER THAN 
AVERAGE RAINFALL, HAVE RAISED THE SPECTER OF FAMINE IN 
ZIMBABWE.  UP TO 1.5 MILLION EX-COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS 
AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE CURRENTLY OR COULD SOON BE IN 
VULNERABLE, AND FACE POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING 
CIRCUMSTANCES DUE TO FARM EXPROPRIATIONS IN ZIMBABWE 
WHICH HAVE FREQUENTLY BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY VIOLENT 
INVASIONS. MANY EX-FARM WORKERS' VULNERABLE SITUATIONS 
ARE EXACERBATED BY THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED 
WITH FARM EXPROPRIATIONS, AND MINIMAL HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE IS BEING PROVIDED TO EX-FARM WORKERS BECAUSE 
OF A LACK OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS IN 
COMMERCIAL FARM AREAS AND POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED 
IN WORKING WITH EX-FARM WORKERS. WHILE COPING MECHANISMS 
AND SEVERANCE PACKAGES MAY SUSTAIN EX-FARM WORKERS IN 
MASHONALAND AND MANICALAND FOR ANOTHER FEW MONTHS, THE 
INABILITY TO OBTAIN SUFFICIENT FOOD IN MANY AFFECTED 
AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE PEOPLE TO MOVE. THERE IS 
DOCUMENTED AND ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT INCREASING 
NUMBERS OF EX-FARM WORKERS ARE ON THE MOVE. WHILE MOST 
EX-FARM WORKERS WILL PROBABLY RELOCATE TO URBAN AREAS IN 
ZIMBABWE, THERE MAY BE INCREASING NUMBERS OF DISPLACED 
LEAVING FOR NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES.  OFDA/RA BELIEVES 
THAT THE MIGRATION TO CITIES AND TOWNS WILL INTENSIFY 
SOON, WITH VERY NOTICEABLE INCREASES BY JANUARY.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------- 
GENERAL IDP SITUATION 
--------------------- 
 
2. A TEAM COMPOSED OF A USAID/DCHA/OFDA EMERGENCY 
DISASTER RESPONSE COORDINATOR AND INFORMATION OFFICER 
TRAVELED TO ZIMBABWE FROM OCTOBER 6-9 TO MEET WITH 
USAID/ZIMBABWE AND THE USAID/DCHA/OFDA HUMANITARIAN 
RESPONSE ADVISOR (HRA) IN HARARE. THE TEAM TRAVELED TO 
ZIMBABWE TO DISCUSS THE INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSON 
(IDP) SITUATION, NOTING AN ONGOING ASSESSMENT BY THE 
ZIMBABWE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT TRUST (ZCDT) THAT 
SUGGESTS THAT AS MANY AS 1.5 MILLION EX-COMMERCIAL FARM 
WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE CURRENTLY OR COULD SOON 
BE IN VULNERABLE, AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING 
CIRCUMSTANCES FOLLOWING FARM EXPROPRIATIONS (NOTE: THE 
TERM EX-FARM WORKERS HEREINAFTER REFERS TO BOTH ACTUAL 
EX-FARM WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES.  END NOTE).  THESE 
EX-FARM WORKERS ARE LOCATED PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN 
ZIMBABWE IN THE PROVINCES OF MASHONALAND EAST, CENTRAL, 
AND WEST, AND MANICALAND.  ON SEPTEMBER 19, THE ZCDT 
RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A SURVEY IDENTIFYING 750,000 
VULNERABLE EX-FARM WORKERS, MANY OF WHOM HAVE BEGUN TO 
MOVE ALONG ROADWAYS AND TO THE MARGINS OF CITIES.  ZCDT 
REPORTS THAT MANY OF THOSE REMAINING ON THE FARMS ARE 
DOING SO WITHOUT ACCESS TO SAFE WATER AND SANITATION. 
NEWS SOURCES HAVE ALSO REPORTED DEATHS FROM DIARRHEA AND 
CHOLERA AMONG EX-FARM WORKER POPULATIONS. 
 
3. SOME EX-FARM WORKERS ARE RECEIVING MEAGER `FORCED 
RETRENCHMENT' SEVERANCE PACKAGES FROM EXPELLED FARMERS, 
AS REQUIRED BY ZIMBABWEAN LAW.  HOWEVER, MANY HAVE NOT 
RECEIVED ANY SEVERANCE PAY.  ON SEPTEMBER 20, OFDA/HRA 
INTERVIEWED TWO YOUNG EX-FARM WORKERS IN EPWORTH, AN 
AREA IN SOUTHEAST METROPOLITAN HARARE.  EACH WAS GIVEN 
2400 ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (Z2,400 = $US2.50) IN SEVERANCE 
AND WAS SUBSISTING ON A DAILY BREAD LOAF THAT COST THEM 
Z100.   (NOTE: AT THE CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE, ONE DOLLAR 
U.S. EQUALS Z950.  END NOTE.)  WHILE SEVERANCE PACKAGES 
VARY ACCORDING TO THE LENGTH OF SERVICE, THEY LIKELY 
WON'T LAST MUCH LONGER WITH THE RISING INFLATION IN 
ZIMBABWE. 
 
4. MANY EX-FARM WORKERS' VULNERABLE SITUATIONS ARE 
EXACERBATED BY THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH 
FARM EXPROPRIATIONS.  REPORTS INDICATE ABUSE OF EX-FARM 
WORKERS AND DENIAL OF FOOD FOR POLITICAL REASONS.  A 
REPUTABLE HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION STUDY INDICATES THAT 
APPROXIMATELY THREE OUT OF FOUR EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE 
BEEN PHYSICALLY ABUSED.  THE GENERAL AGRICULTURAL AND 
PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ) CITES THAT 
AS MANY AS 60% OF EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE PARENTAGE 
ORIGINATING IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES AND THUS ARE 
TECHNICALLY CONSIDERED STATELESS, DESPITE HAVING VOTED 
AND LIVED IN ZIMBABWE FOR DECADES, IF NOT GENERATIONS. 
AS A RESULT, MANY OF THOSE WHO LEAVE COMMERCIAL FARMING 
AREAS MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO BLEND INTO THE URBAN 
POPULATION IN ORDER TO ESCAPE PERSECUTION. THIS 
COMPLICATES THE IDENTIFICATION OF IDPS FOR PROVISION OF 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE. 
 
----------------------- 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
----------------------- 
 
5. AT PRESENT, ONLY MINIMAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IS 
BEING PROVIDED TO THE EX-FARM WORKERS FOR SEVERAL 
REASONS.  AS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF ZIMBABWE HAVE 
TRADITIONALLY BEEN MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT, IN LARGE PART 
BECAUSE OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS, INTERNATIONAL NGOS HAVE 
TENDED TO FOCUS ON THE LESS DEVELOPED AREAS OF THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.  HAVING 
ALREADY ESTABLISHED AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
ASSISTANCE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, THE 
INTERNATIONAL NGOS ARE FOCUSING THEIR HUMANITARIAN 
ASSISTANCE ACTIVITIES IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. ANOTHER 
REASON IS THAT MOST NEWLY ARRIVED NGOS ARE IN THE 
PROCESS OF REGISTERING AND ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES, 
BRINGING IN STAFF, AND DEVELOPING LOGISTICAL 
CAPABILITIES.  THE GOZ'S BUREAUCRATIC AND LENGTHY 
REGISTRATION PROCESS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED A NUMBER 
OF NGOS FROM COMMENCING HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE.  IT IS 
NOT YET CLEAR HOW MANY OF THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED NGOS, IF 
ANY, WILL TARGET THE NORTHERN AREAS AND/OR THE EX-FARM 
WORKERS. FINALLY, BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH INTERNATIONAL 
AND LOCAL NGOS CONDUCTED BY OFDA/EDRO AND HRA ON OCTOBER 
8, THESE ORGANIZATIONS ARE RELUCTANT TO WORK IN NORTHERN 
AREAS BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL TENSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH 
ASSISTING EX-FARM WORKERS.   AT LEAST THREE MAJOR 
INTERNATIONAL NGOS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DENIED PERMISSION 
TO UNDERTAKE FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE, SEVERELY 
RESTRICTING THE AVAILABILITY OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING 
PARTNERS IN VULNERABLE AREAS. 
 
6. IN SOME COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS, LOCAL NGOS 
REPRESENT THE ONLY PROVIDER OF ASSISTANCE TO EX-FARM 
WORKERS.  A LOCAL NGO CONSORTIUM, FOOD SECURITY NETWORK 
(FOSENET), HAS BEEN FORMED TO MONITOR FOOD DELIVERY 
PROBLEMS NATIONWIDE AND EX-FARM WORKERS ARE A SUBSET OF 
THEIR CONCERN.  THEIR OBJECTIVES ARE TO FIELD LOCAL 
CONCERNS AND ISSUES, AND PASS THEM ON TO THE UN 
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (UNDP), THE UN WORLD FOOD PROGRAM, 
DONORS AND THE INTERNATIONAL NGOS.  FOSENET IS 
CONSIDERING EXPANDING ITS SCOPE OF WORK TO INCLUDE 
RELIEF ELEMENTS AS WELL. 
 
7. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF QUALIFIED IMPLEMENTING 
PARTNERS IN SOME SEVERELY AFFECTED AREAS, THERE IS NOT 
YET AN EFFECTIVE IDP IDENTIFICATION FRAMEWORK IN PLACE. 
USAID SUPPORTED THE CREATION OF THE UNDP/RELIEF AND 
RECOVERY UNIT (UNDP/RRU) AS THE LEAD COORDINATING UNIT 
FOR THE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE, WITH RESPONSIBILITY FOR 
MONITORING THE IDP SITUATION.  HOWEVER, THE RRU'S IDP 
SPECIALIST POSITION, ESSENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE MONITORING 
OF THE IDP SITUATION, HAS YET TO BE FILLED.  IN THE 
ABSENCE OF AN IDP MONITORING UNIT, UNDP/RRU RECENTLY 
SIGNED A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE MINISTRY 
OF LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE TO CONDUCT A JOINT 
ASSESSMENT OF THE NUMBER OF DISPLACED EX-FARM WORKERS. 
WHILE THIS MAY BE A STEP FORWARD, AN INDEPENDENT, NON- 
GOVERNMENTAL IDP MONITORING PROGRAM REMAINS VITAL TO THE 
EFFECTIVE PROVISION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE. 
---------------------- 
POTENTIAL DISPLACEMENT 
---------------------- 
 
8. OFDA/RA ESTIMATES THAT TWO-THIRDS OF THE EX-FARM 
WORKERS WERE WORKING ON FARMS IN MASHONALAND, IN A 150 
KILOMETER RADIUS AROUND HARARE.  THIS IS THE PRIME 
AGRICULTURAL LAND WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXPROPRIATED 
COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE LOCATED.  AS THE HUMANITARIAN 
SITUATION IN THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE, MOST 
EX-FARM WORKERS ARE LEFT WITH THE CHOICE TO STAY WHERE 
THEY ARE AND HOPE THAT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE FINDS 
THEM, OR TO MOVE IN SEARCH OF FOOD. 
 
9. AT PRESENT, IT APPEARS THAT MOST PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING 
TO STAY WHERE THEY ARE.  HOWEVER, THERE IS DOCUMENTED 
AND ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT SMALL, BUT INCREASING 
NUMBERS ARE ON THE MOVE.  SOME OF THE EX-FARM WORKERS, 
PROBABLY IN THE LOW THOUSANDS, ARE LEAVING ZIMBABWE IF 
THEY HAVE PASSPORTS AND MONEY.  NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES 
ARE NOT OPENLY EMBRACING THEM.  OFDA/HRA IS HEARING 
DISTURBING STORIES THAT THE GOZ MAY BE TRUCKING SOME 
FARM WORKERS TO AREAS NEAR BORDERS, BUT THESE HAVE YET 
TO BE CONFIRMED.  HOWEVER, IF LEFT TO THEIR OWN DEVICES, 
AND IF THEY CAN FIND TRANSPORTATION, OFDA/HRA BELIEVES 
THOSE ON THE MOVE WILL HEAD TOWARD HARARE AND OTHER 
MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS.  SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE OF INFORMAL 
SETTLEMENT GROWTH IN THE EPWORTH, HATCLIFFE EAST, 
DZIVARASEKWA, PORTA CAMP, AND OTHER AREAS AROUND HARARE 
HAS BEEN REPORTED BY NGOS AND WITNESSED BY OFDA/RA. 
 
10. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS TO BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL 
CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS.  FOOD MAY BE AVAILABLE IN 
SHOPS, AND COSTS CAN BE LOWER IN THE CITIES BECAUSE 
PRICE GOUGING IS MORE CONTROLLED.  IN ADDITION, THE 
COMMUNAL FAMILY STRUCTURE IN RURAL AREAS IS ALREADY 
STRETCHED TO CAPACITY AND CANNOT SUPPORT ADDITIONAL 
FAMILY MEMBERS.  FINALLY, AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, 
THE URBAN AREAS ARE NOT AS TIGHTLY CONTROLLED 
POLITICALLY, ALLOWING EX-FARM WORKERS TO ESCAPE NOTICE. 
AS MANY AS HALF OF THE EX-FARM WORKERS MAY DRIFT TOWARD 
HARARE AND MOST OF THE REST TO NEIGHBORING SMALL CENTERS 
SUCH AS CHINHOYI, BINDURA, CHITUNGWIZA, AND MARONDERA. 
THIS PATTERN OF RURAL TO URBAN DISPLACEMENT WAS ALSO 
RECORDED DURING THE 1992 FOOD SECURITY CRISIS, 
SUGGESTING SIMILAR MOVEMENT AS THE FOOD SECURITY 
SITUATION DETERIORATES. 
 
11. SOME HUMANITARIAN WORKERS IN ZIMBABWE BELIEVE THAT 
IDPS MAY INCREASINGLY SEEK TO ESCAPE FOOD INSECURITY BY 
LEAVING THE COUNTRY. THEY NOTE THAT EX-FARM WORKERS 
OFTEN HAVE FAMILY ORIGINS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES AND 
SO MAY HAVE SOMEPLACE TO RETURN TO.  IN ADDITION, THE 
RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE AND EXCELLENT TRANSPORT NETWORK IN 
ZIMBABWE MAKE MOVING LONG DISTANCES BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT 
POSSIBLE.  WHILE NOT ALL IDPS WILL HAVE MONEY FOR 
TRANSPORT, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER MAY CHOOSE TO TRY TO 
ESCAPE THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE.  THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH 
AFRICA HAS PLANS FOR THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF EX-FARM 
WORKERS AND OTHER VULNERABLE GROUPS.  THE INTERNATIONAL 
FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/RED CRESCENT SOCIETIES 
(IFRC) IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE IN WORKING 
WITH RED CROSS SOCIETIES IN COUNTRIES NEIGHBORING 
ZIMBABWE TO PLAN FOR POSSIBLE ARRIVALS.  AS WITH 
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT IN ZIMBABWE, IT MAY BE VERY 
DIFFICULT TO TRACK NUMBERS OF EX-FARM WORKERS LEAVING 
ZIMBABWE, AS THEY WILL BE MOVING WITHOUT OFFICIAL 
DOCUMENTATION AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ESCAPE NOTICE. 
 
---------------------------------- 
EX-FARM WORKERS REMAINING IN PLACE 
---------------------------------- 
 
12. THOSE EX-FARM WORKERS WHO HAVE CHOSEN TO REMAIN IN 
PLACE, OR HAVE NOT YET STARTED TO MOVE, HAVE DONE SO FOR 
SEVERAL REASONS.  OVERALL HEALTH HAS NOT YET BECOME AN 
ISSUE FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION AND MANY CAN WITHSTAND 
ANOTHER FEW MONTHS OF WEIGHT LOSS.   ALSO, MANY ARE 
STILL ABLE TO LIVE OFF THEIR SEVERANCE PACKAGE.  ANOTHER 
BENEFIT OF REMAINING IN PLACE IS THE RESIDUAL MAIZE CROP 
FROM THE COMMERCIAL FARMS.  SOME EX-FARM WORKERS HAVE 
BEEN ABLE TO STASH SMALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAIZE FOR 
CONSUMPTION LATER.   THESE FACTORS, DEPENDING ON THE 
CIRCUMSTANCES, COULD HOLD PEOPLE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER 
TWO TO THREE MONTHS. 
 
13. SOME EX-FARM WORKERS MAY LEAVE THEIR FARMS, BUT 
INSTEAD OF MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE CITIES, THEY WILL 
TAKE REFUGE AT OTHER FARMS WHERE THE PRESSURE TO MOVE IS 
NOT SO INTENSE.  OFDA/HRA ALSO SUSPECTS THAT MANY WILL 
BEGIN TO GO TO CHURCH-BASED MISSIONS WITH HOSPITALS THAT 
ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRYSIDE.  HOWEVER, THESE 
MAY JUST BE WAY STATIONS ON THE MIGRATION ROUTE TO 
CITIES AND TOWNS. 
 
----------- 
CONCLUSIONS 
----------- 
 
14. WHILE COPING MECHANISMS AND SEVERANCE PACKAGES MAY 
SUSTAIN VULNERABLE EX-FARM WORKERS FOR ANOTHER FEW 
MONTHS, THE LACK OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT OR OTHER 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL 
EVENTUALLY FORCE PEOPLE TO MOVE.  OFDA/HRA BELIEVES THAT 
THE MIGRATION TO CITIES AND TOWNS WILL INTENSIFY VERY 
SOON, WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASES BY JANUARY.  IN HARARE, 
THAT MIGHT TRANSLATE INTO 100,000 TO 150,000 ADDITIONAL 
EX-FARM WORKERS SQUATTING IN TEMPORARY SETTLEMENTS.  BY 
MARCH, THESE NUMBERS COULD REACH 400,000 TO 500,000. 
THE SAME DYNAMIC WILL LIKELY APPLY TO THE SMALLER 
SURROUNDING REGIONAL TOWNS.  THE 1992 FOOD SECURITY 
CRISIS PROVIDES A BLUEPRINT OF POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN A 
SIMILAR SITUATION.  HOWEVER, THE ADDED COMPLEXITIES OF A 
POLITICAL SITUATION LIMITING IDENTIFICATION AND 
TARGETING OF IDPS COULD SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE EFFECTS 
OF THE CURRENT CRISIS BEYOND THAT OF 1992. 
 
--------------- 
RECOMMENDATIONS 
--------------- 
 
15. A STRENGTHENED UN HUMANITARIAN IDP MONITORING UNIT 
IS ESSENTIAL TO THE EFFECTIVE UNDERSTANDING AND TRACKING 
OF THE IDP SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.  TO THE EXTENT 
POSSIBLE, THE USG SHOULD WORK TO IMPROVE THIS CAPACITY. 
IN PARTICULAR, INFORMATION GENERATION REGARDING THE 
NUMBERS OF DISPLACED EX-FARM WORKERS AND THE LOCATIONS 
OF IDP CAMPS AND INFORMAL SETTLEMENT AREAS IN AND AROUND 
URBAN AREAS IS A HIGH PRIORITY FOR GUIDING HUMANITARIAN 
RESPONSE. 
 
16. INTERNATIONAL AND LOCAL NGOS SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO 
DEVELOP PROGRAMS TO RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF DISPLACED EX- 
FARM WORKERS IN COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS OF ZIMBABWE. 
PROGRAMS SHOULD MEET IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY NEEDS, SUCH AS 
SUPPLEMENTAL AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING, AS DESCRIBED IN 
ONGOING SITUATION ASSESSMENTS.  SUCH PROGRAMS SHOULD BE 
DEVELOPED URGENTLY TO DEAL WITH THESE IMMEDIATE NEEDS, 
BUT ALSO TO PUT ASSISTANCE MECHANISMS IN PLACE BEFORE 
LARGE-SCALE MOVEMENTS START TO OCCUR. 
 
17. THE GROWTH OF INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN AND AROUND 
URBAN AREAS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED, AS LACK OF 
ACCESS TO CLEAN WATER, FOOD, ADEQUATE SHELTER, AND BASIC 
HEALTH CARE MAY LEAD TO EPIDEMIC DISEASE OUTBREAK AND 
DRIVE CONTINUED POPULATION MOVEMENT.  WHERE APPROPRIATE, 
EMERGENCY PROGRAMS RESPONDING TO NEEDS IN INFORMAL 
SETTLEMENT AREAS SHOULD BE INITIATED.  SULLIVAN