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### Viewing cable 08DUBLIN50, IRISH VIEWS ON PROGRESS OF NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08DUBLIN50 | 2008-01-28 11:27 | 2011-07-22 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Dublin

`

    VZCZCXRO2580
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHDL #0050/01 0281127
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 281127Z JAN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8862
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
    RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2452
    RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0663
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000050

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
    TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
    SUBJECT: IRISH VIEWS ON PROGRESS OF NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE
    PROCESS

    REF: BELFAST 8

    DUBLIN 00000050  001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: DCM Robert J. Faucher; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary: During her visit to Ireland January 16,
    EUR/WE Office Director Kathy Allegrone met with Department of
    Foreign Affairs Anglo-Irish Division Director General Pat
    Hennessy, and Department of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister)
    International Affairs Advisor Martin Fraser, to discuss the
    Irish view of the current state of the Northern Ireland peace
    process.  Both officials expressed gratification that the
    process has proceeded so well in such a short time, but
    identified a number of problems.  Lack of capability in the
    Northern Ireland civil service, they said, could adversely
    affect economic development and community reconciliation, as
    well as the planned investment conference in May 2008.  They
    identified this summer's marching season as a potential
    flashpoint for trouble.  Neither official appeared unduely
    worried that the peace process will founder over the issue of
    the devolution of policing and justice, though they thought
    the May 2008 timetable for devolution is likely to slip.  We
    are confident that we will get a quick heads-up from the
    Irish if they think the peace process is beginning to falter
    seriously.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (C) The Taoiseach's International Advisor, Martin Fraser,
    pointed to the civil service of the Northern Ireland Assembly
    (NIA) as in need of reform.  Not only is it too big, he said,
    it is also generally unresponsive to the sort of innovative
    change needed as the North develops its economy and
    reconciles its communities.  He noted, in particular, that
    key officials in the bureaucracy appear reluctant to deal
    with Government of Ireland officials or support North-South
    cooperation -- a hangover, he said, from the days of
    sectarian violence when the Government of Ireland was
    perceived by many unionists in the North to be siding with
    republican militants.

    ¶3.  (C) Of immediate concern, Fraser noted, is the
    USG-sponsored investment conference, planned for May 2008.
    Fraser indicated that the Irish Government would feel more
    confident in the success of the conference if organizers in
    the NIA Ministry of Enterprise, Trade, and Investment were
    more forthcoming in communicating with their counterparts in
    the South.  Fraser mused that the communication difficulties
    could be caused by the Minister of Enterprise, Trade, and
    Investment Nigel Dodds, a staunch unionist.

    ¶4.  (C) Fraser also said he thought the Northern Ireland
    civil service -- and, indeed, the politicians -- were very
    inexperienced at playing on the international stage.  He
    commented that they seemed to take access to senior officials
    in the UK, EU and U.S. for granted and didn't take good
    advantage of such access, not realizing that the window of
    opportunity for such contacts is closing.  He concluded that
    the Assembly needs all the help it can get.

    ¶5.  On a positive note, Fraser said there have been many
    useful contacts between Northern Ireland politicians and the
    Irish Government.  Fraser mentioned that when NIA members go
    overseas, they seek out assistance from the Irish Embassy
    rather than their own NIA liaison offices.  He commented that
    when Nigel Dodds was in Washington recently, he sought out a
    photo opportunity with Irish Ambassador Michael Collins in
    the Irish Embassy -- a place Dodds would have regarded as
    "enemy territory" not so long ago.  Pat Hennessy noted that
    NIA First Minister Ian Paisley asked the Irish Embassy in
    Brussels to coordinate his recent visit there.

    ¶6.  (C) Fraser stated that the Government of Ireland is still
    working within the framework of the Good Friday Agreement,
    which includes the devolution of policing and justice from
    Westminister to the Northern Ireland Assembly.  Fraser said
    the Irish Government understands the fundamental conflict
    between the unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which
    is reluctant to devolve policing and justice in May 2008, and
    the republican Sinn Fein party, which agreed in Janaury 2007
    to endorse policing in the North based, in part, on an
    understanding that policing and justice would be devolved in
    May 2008.  Both sides, he said, have legitimate concerns
    about meeting the expectations of their rank-and-file
    supporters.

    ¶7.  (C) However, Fraser said, contacts the Irish Government
    has had with Sinn Fein so far indicate that Sinn Fein is not
    yet overly worried about the May 2008 deadline.  In coming
    weeks, Fraser pointed out, the political process will
    proceed, including the outcome of the NIA Committee on
    Devolution of Policing and Justice, led by DUP member Jeffrey

    DUBLIN 00000050  002.2 OF 002

    Donaldson.  Fraser said that the negotiating process could
    well produce the desired result.  He wryly commented, "We
    will know when Sinn Fein is really worried."  (Note: Sinn
    Fein President Gerry Adams met recently with both the Consul
    General in Belfast (reftel) and Ambassador Foley in Dublin to
    express his concern about not meeting the May 2008 deadline.
    End Note.)  The bottom line, in Fraser's opinion, is that
    devolution of policing and justice will occur this year, but
    probably not in May.

    ¶8.  (C) In spite of two trouble-free seasons, both Fraser and
    Hennessy identified this summer's marching season, which will
    be underway in May when devolution is scheduled to occur, as
    a potential flashpoint for trouble.

    ¶9.  (C) Hennessy's views largely coincided with that of
    Fraser, including some unease about the capabilities of the
    NIA politicians, the NIA civil service, and the progress of
    planning for the May 2008 investment conference.  Hennessy
    felt that the recent meeting of Ian Paisley and Martin
    McGuinness with President Bush made a significant
    contribution to cementing the peace, noting that since that
    visit, Paisley seemed more comfortable in his role.

    ¶10.  (C) Commenting on the issue of policing and justice in
    the North, Hennessy acknowledged the difficulty of achieving
    devolution, but noted some positive signs.  He commented that
    Paisley has not said anything recently that would make it
    more difficult to proceed with devolution negotiations, that
    each side has been careful to deal with other contentious
    issues in ways that do not scotch the negotiations over
    devolution, that both sides understand the significance of
    policing and justice and their responsibilities under the
    Good Friday Agreement and St. Andrew's Agreement, and that
    the ongoing work of the NIA Committee on the Devolution of
    Policing and Justice demonstrates that the DUP wants to be
    ready to implement devolution when the political time is
    ripe.  Hennessy agreed with Fraser that devolution will
    occur, though not necessarily in May, saying, "It's an
    article of faith that the DUP will break the May 2008
    deadline."

    ¶11.  (C) Hennessy said it will be very important that outside
    forces -- the U.S., the British Government, and the Irish
    Government -- continue to robustly remind the DUP of their
    obligation to accept the devolution of policing and justice.
    The DUP will need such pressure to persuade its rank-and-file
    that it has no choice, Hennessy declared, and will expect
    such pressure to be forthcoming.  In the end, Hennessy
    stated, the Government of Ireland will accede to whatever
    timeframe for devolution Sinn Fein and the DUP agree between
    themselves.

    ¶12.  (C) Comment:  The Irish Government does not appear to be
    unduely worried at this point that the peace process will
    founder over the issue of the devolution of policing and
    justice, though the timetable for such devolution is in
    question.  We are confident that we will get a quick heads-up
    from the Irish if they think the process is beginning to
    falter seriously.

    FOLEY

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