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### Viewing cable 07DUBLIN876, IRELAND FACING NEW IMMIGRATION AND INTEGRATION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07DUBLIN876 | 2007-11-30 12:24 | 2011-07-22 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Dublin

`

    VZCZCXRO3589
    RR RUEHBL
    DE RUEHDL #0876/01 3341224
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 301224Z NOV 07
    FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8750
    INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2435
    RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0643
    RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 000876

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE - PEASE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: SMIG PGOV PREL KHLS EI
    SUBJECT: IRELAND FACING NEW IMMIGRATION AND INTEGRATION
    CHALLENGES

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (U) The surge in immigration to Ireland during the past
    decade has presented the Republic with economic opportunities
    as well as social challenges.  Foreign nationals now
    constitute upwards of 15 percent of Ireland's inhabitants,
    compared to 10 percent in the U.S.  Ireland has used the
    immigration of predominantly young, highly-educated workers
    to fuel its "Celtic Tiger" economic boom and most economists
    predict future economic growth will depend on continued
    inward migration.  Despite past success, government officials
    are facing new challenges that are forcing them to update
    immigration and integration policies amid strained public
    services, new immigrant-concentrated neighborhoods, and
    slowing economic conditions.  Critical of the faltering
    British and French models of multiculturalism and
    assimilation, Irish officials are keen to forge a third way
    which, if successful, could provide Europe with a new model
    for integration.  Ireland's ability to manage its
    ethnically-diverse population will be of key interest in
    Europe where in some countries immigration debates have take
    on an increasingly anxious tone and anti-immigrant political
    platforms seem to be gaining popularity.  End summary.

    YOUNG, SKILLED EASTERN EUROPEANS DOMINATE GROWING IMMIGRANT
    RANKS ...
    --------------------------------------------- ---------------

    ¶2. (U) Ireland took in an estimated 87,000 immigrants between
    April 2005 and April 2006, according to Ireland's Central
    Statistics Office (CSO), representing the highest figure
    recorded since the CSO began tracking migration to Ireland in
    ¶1987.  Nearly half--43 percent--came from the Central and
    Eastern European states that joined the EU in 2004, including
    24 percent from Poland alone.  (Note: Ireland was one of the
    few EU countries that opened its borders to workers from the
    new EU member states in 2004.  End note.)  Eighteen percent
    of immigrants came from the UK, 12 percent from the rest of
    the EU, and 27 percent from the rest of the world.  According
    to Ireland's 2006 census, 420,000 foreign nationals currently
    live in Ireland, or 10 percent of the total population.
    However, Conor Lenihan, Minister of State for Immigration and
    Integration, has stated publicly that he believes the census
    "seriously underestimated" the number of foreign nationals
    and the non-Irish population could be between 13 and 15
    percent of the population.

    ¶3. (U) Ireland's immigrant pool is generally young and well
    educated.  More than half, or 54 percent, of foreign
    nationals are between the ages of 25 and 44, and slightly
    more than 30 percent have third-level degrees.  Research
    conducted by the Dublin-based Economic and Social Research
    Institute (ESRI) found that while the most recent immigrants
    from the Central and Eastern EU states have a lower level of
    educational attainment compared to immigrants who came to
    Ireland in the late 1990s, their educational level is still
    generally higher than that of the native Irish population.

    ... BUT ECONOMIC BENEFITS FOR NEWEST ARRIVALS DECLINE
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶4. (U) Numerous studies have shown that immigration has made
    Ireland richer by creating a virtuous cycle whereby increased
    economic prosperity combined with an open immigration policy
    has attracted foreign workers who in turn helped fuel the
    Celtic Tiger economic boom.  Since the mid-1990s the
    predominantly well-educated immigrant pool increased
    competition in the high-skill labor market which suppressed
    wage growth and increased Ireland's competitiveness.
    Immigration continues to be the key force behind Ireland's
    labor market with 72 percent of the annual increase in
    employment accounted for by non-Irish nationals, according to
    the CSO.  However, the shift to predominantly non-English
    speaking immigrants since 2000 has resulted in most of the
    recent immigrants taking jobs that are not commensurate with
    their education level and subsequently earning substantially
    less than similarly-qualified Irish workers.  Minister
    Lenihan told the IEA that at least 10 percent of immigrants
    are overqualified for the jobs they currently hold.

    ¶5. (U) While lack of English language skills is the key
    reason for the skills mismatch, non-recognition of
    qualifications is another factor.  ESRI research shows that
    recent immigrants are less likely than previous migrants to
    be working in managerial, professional, or associate
    professional occupations.  Foreign nationals compose nearly

    DUBLIN 00000876  002 OF 004

    30 percent of all hotel and restaurant employees, 14 percent
    of workers in other production facilities, and 13 percent of
    construction workers, according to the Irish Government's
    most recent statistics.  The disparity between skills and
    employment has reduced the net benefit of immigration to the
    Irish economy and increased earnings inequality by driving
    down low-skill wage levels.

    ASYLUM SEEKERS DECLINING AMID TIGHTER POLICIES
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶6. (U) In contrast to the growing number of migrant workers,
    applications for asylum in Ireland fell in 2006 for the fifth
    straight year, according to the UN Commissioner for Refugees.
     Ireland received just over 4,300 applications, or less than
    2 percent of all those seeking asylum in industrialized
    countries.  Asylum migrants make up only 4 percent of
    Ireland's immigrant pool.

    ¶7. (U) At a public address at the Dublin-based Institute of
    European Affairs (IEA) in November, Minister Lenihan credited
    the decline to tighter government policies implemented after
    a surge in asylum seekers to Ireland in 1999 and 2000 when
    the Republic received 8,000 applicants annually.  Ireland
    accepts only 10 percent of asylum applicants and, according
    to Minister Lenihan, the government's policy is successful in
    countering the fraud that permeates asylum applications.

    ¶8. (U) Recent government actions to further close loopholes
    indicate that the number of asylum seekers may continue to
    decline.  Since 2000 most political refugees in Ireland have
    come from Nigeria and Romania.  However, the Irish Government
    in January announced it would no longer permit citizens from
    other EU states to apply for refugee status.  The move was
    intended to prevent Romanian immigrants, whose intent is to
    find a job rather than escape persecution, from settling in
    Ireland and using the social services available to asylum
    seekers.

    IMMIGRATION IS KEY TO FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶9. (U) Jim Power, a leading Irish economist, told econoffs in
    November that all future economic growth in Ireland requires
    inward migration, as Ireland currently is fully employed.
    This view is supported by the latest OECD report which
    concluded that despite Ireland's population surge, there is
    still room to increase the labor supply.  Ireland's National
    Training and Employment Authority estimates that the Republic
    will need 500,000 more migrant workers during the next
    decade.  Minister Lenihan stated at the IEA in November that
    Ireland must look on its immigrants as a "huge opportunity,"
    and work to move the current underemployed migrants to
    appropriately skilled areas in order to increase Ireland's
    productivity.

    ¶10. (U) There is still much debate in Ireland concerning the
    impact of a slowing economy on immigrant employment,
    according to Power, who noted it is still too early to tell
    if they will be re-employed, unemployed, or leave.  Some
    Irish press reports have suggested that an economic downturn
    will produce increased competition for jobs, fueling tensions
    between native and immigrant populations.   However, the
    recent slowdown in Ireland's construction industry indicates
    that the EU labor market may be flexible enough to mitigate
    pressures if an economic slowdown is not EU-wide.  Irish
    government officials report that layoffs this year in
    Ireland's construction sector were not accompanied by a
    commensurate upturn in unemployment, suggesting that many of
    the immigrant workers in that sector from EU member states
    simply returned home to take advantage of Central Europe's
    burgeoning economies or emigrated elsewhere in the EU.
    (Comment:  However, emigration elsewhere in the EU is not an
    easy option for immigrants from non-EU nations, such as
    Nigeria, China, or the Philippines.  In the event of an
    economic recession and an increase in unemployment, such
    visible immigrants could the targets of social frustration.
    End comment.)

    ¶11. (U) Irish officials suggest, instead, a key problem in
    the coming years will be retaining skilled workers.  Minister
    Lenihan reported that Ireland has already seen a number of
    the nurses recruited from the Philippines five years ago
    "poached" by Canada.  CSO data shows just 30 percent of
    Central European workers who immigrated since 2004 remain in
    Ireland.

    DUBLIN 00000876  003 OF 004

    A SHORT HISTORY OF SUCCESSFUL INTEGRATION
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶12. (U) Foreign workers have largely been absorbed into Irish
    society with limited friction during the last decade. A 2006
    report from ESRI found that the incidence of racism in
    Ireland was lower than in other European countries and
    surveys of Irish public opinion indicate that, although there
    are some mixed feelings on immigration, there has been
    relatively little evidence of a negative attitude.  The
    success of integration to date is probably due to a
    combination of historical, ethnic and economic factors unique
    to Ireland.  Irish was the most common ethnicity of
    immigrants from 1995 to 2000, as many emigrants returned home
    to profit from the early days of Ireland's economic boom.
    Ireland's current immigrant pool still is predominantly
    European, educated, and Predominantly (50 percent) Catholic.
    Moreover, Irish emigrants' own experience with racism may
    have tempered local attitudes toward new arrivals.  A strong
    economy, consistently low unemployment, and high per capita
    wealth have also probably mitigated a backlash against new
    non-Irish workers.  Moreover, government policies allowing
    noncitizens to vote in local elections and join the police
    force has helped reduce the marginalization of immigrants.

    ¶13.  (U) In response to the rapidly emerging issue of
    immigration, the Ministry of Immigration and Integration (led
    by  Minister of State Conor Lenihan) was newly created by
    Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern following the May
    2007 election.  During a meeting with the Ambassador on
    October 9, Lenihan said that he expects to take about a year
    to clearly define the role of the new Ministry and get up
    fully up and running.  (Comment:  The Taoiseach is said to
    have more than a passing interest in immigration policy.
    Reportedly, 52 percent of his North Dublin constituency is
    comprised of immigrants.  End comment.)

    GROWING NUMBERS AND CHANGING ETHNICITY ADD CHALLENGES
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶14. (U) The growing proportion of immigrants relative to the
    native population and the changing and more diverse ethnic
    background of newcomers, however, will likely make
    integration more difficult in the future.  CSO data shows
    that in 2001 returning Irish still composed 44 percent of
    immigrants, but by 2006 they composed only 23 percent.  While
    the largest portion of non-Irish immigrants has come from the
    new EU member states, prior to 2004 ethnic Chinese comprised
    the largest non-Irish group of immigrants and remain a
    sizable number today (with estimates of up to 90,000).
    Moreover, there is evidence "ghettos" are emerging in and
    around Dublin dominated by immigrants.  Irish press reports
    indicate that in some urban districts the number of
    immigrants has risen 120 percent in the last year and in some
    primary schools in Dublin 50 percent of the students are from
    non-Irish backgrounds.

    ¶15. (U) Minister Lenihan has called the emergence of
    immigrant-concentrated neighborhoods Ireland's biggest
    integration problem and characterized them as a by-product of
    the lack of affordable housing.  He said in November that he
    believed both Britain's multicultural and France's
    assimilation models of integration had failed, producing
    parallel societies, and Ireland's objective now is to learn
    from, and not repeat, their experiences.  He noted the first
    steps of his integration plan are to provide immigrants with
    English language skills and implement a better housing policy.

    WELFARE AND SOCIAL SERVICES UNDER PRESSURE
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶16. (U) Ireland's infrastructure and social services have
    come under severe pressure due to the extraordinary growth in
    population and economic activity during the past decade.  The
    total population in Ireland increased 16 percent from 1997 to
    2006--the second highest rate of increase in the EU after
    Cyprus.  However, studies show that while immigration is
    straining Ireland's already stressed services, it is not the
    sole source of the problem.  A report by ESRI last year found
    that immigrant workers were only half as likely to avail of
    social welfare services as native Irish workers, with the
    demographic composition of immigrants tempering the amount of
    services required.  According to the CSO, just 10 percent of
    immigrants entering Ireland are school age children under the
    age of 15 and just one percent are 65 or older.

    DUBLIN 00000876  004 OF 004

    ¶17. (U) The Government has undertaken measures to mitigate
    the impact of immigration on services.  Prior to the
    accession of the EU states in 2004, Ireland introduced
    restrictions to prevent "welfare tourism," requiring
    immigrants to be habitually resident to receive most forms of
    social assistance.  (Comment: Anecdotal evidence indicates
    that, because of cheap airfares, some foreign born welfare
    recipients live in other European countries and fly into
    Ireland each month to collect their welfare checks.  End
    comment.)

    GOVERNMENT POLICIES IMPROVING, BUT MORE CHANGES NEEDED
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶18. (U) Irish officials are rapidly moving to update
    legislation to keep pace with immigration.  An EU-wide study
    on integration issued by Brussels this year criticized the
    Republic's policies as having evolved in a "piecemeal and
    economically-driven" fashion and placed Ireland the bottom of
    its league table for the provision of long-term residence
    rights to migrant workers.  Currently, migrant workers'
    security to live in Ireland is based entirely on employment
    (putting them, critics say, at the mercy of their employers).
     A proposed immigration bill that is before the Parliament,
    if passed, will be Ireland's first consolidated piece of
    legislation on immigration and give permanent residency to
    migrants.

    ¶19.  (U) The Government this year also replaced a complex
    work permits regime with a simpler one centered around a
    "green card." Unlike the U.S. green card, it is simply a
    two-year renewable work permit that covers all occupations
    that offer an annual salary of 60,000 euros (USD 88,500) or
    more and some "strategically important" occupations in the
    30,000 euros (USD 44,250) to 59,000 euros (USD 87,000)
    bracket where shortages exist, such as health care,
    construction, and financial services.

    ¶20. (U) Ireland's "green card" is designed to be responsive
    to filling high-skill shortages as they emerge; however, Jim
    Power told econoffs that he believes it does not go far
    enough and a Canadian or Australian-style points system is
    needed.  Shortcomings of the program include prohibitive
    application fees, bureaucratic delays, and no clear path to
    citizenship.  Irish press reports say that it is difficult
    for even highly-qualified foreign students to remain in
    Ireland to work and, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers
    report published earlier this year, companies in Ireland
    report experiencing the most difficulty in the EU recruiting
    foreigners to senior management and professional positions.

    ¶21. (U) Minister Lenihan said in November that he advocates a
    European-led approach to immigration. He suggested that
    without a common approach there will continue to be unnatural
    flows of migrants within the EU due to EU countries'
    disparate policies, social provisions, and economic
    performance.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶22. (SBU) Ireland's immigration experience is unique as it
    has occurred against a backdrop of unprecedented economic
    prosperity.  However, the Republic's enviable position could
    be altered if the Government does not adequately control the
    flow, settlement, and integration of migrants, and improve
    public services.  Already there are worrying signs that
    Ireland has been slow in developing appropriate policies to
    address long-term challenges.  Problems arising from unequal
    access to education and housing in parts of fast-growing
    northwest Dublin could worsen if not stemmed, contributing to
    the emergence of tensions between immigrants and natives seen
    elsewhere in Europe and leading to an "unvirtuous cycle,"
    whereby Ireland ceases to attract the highly skilled
    immigrants needed to sustain its economic prosperity.
    However, if Ireland succeeds in integrating its increasingly
    ethnically-diverse immigrant population while reaping the
    economic benefits of a growing labor pool, the Republic's
    policies could serve as a prototype for other EU countries
    struggling to attract workers while maintaining social
    cohesion.

    FOLEY

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