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### Viewing cable 07LISBON1812, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PORTUGAL JULY 19-20

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07LISBON1812 | 2007-07-11 18:30 | 2010-12-15 21:30 | SECRET | Embassy Lisbon

`

    VZCZCXRO9656
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHLI #1812/01 1921830
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 111830Z JUL 07
    FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6037
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LISBON 001812

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    FOR THE SECRETARY FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ADRIENNE O'NEAL

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
    TAGS: PREL PO
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO PORTUGAL JULY 19-20

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Adrienne O'Neal for reasons 1.4 (B) an
    d (D).

    ¶1. (SBU) Madam Secretary:

    Your visit -- at the beginning of Portugal's EU presidency --
    is particularly timely and provides an excellent opportunity
    to try to shape from the outset the Portuguese government's
    priorities in a direction consistent with U.S. interests.

    Portugal - Steadfast Ally
    ------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Portugal, a founding member of NATO, is a steadfast
    ally who has consistently stood by our side over the years
    despite various changes in government. The President and
    Prime Minister -- from opposing political parties -- each
    regularly stress that trans-Atlantic relations are a pillar
    of Portuguese foreign policy and that NATO is the primary
    guarantor of European security.

    ¶3. (SBU) Portugal has provided virtually free access to
    Portuguese air and seaports for military support operations
    in Iraq and Afghanistan, with over three thousand flights a
    year transiting Lajes Air Base in the Azores. Despite severe
    budgetary constraints, it is engaged internationally on
    numerous fronts with military personnel in Iraq, Afghanistan
    (where it lost one soldier), East Timor, Kosovo, Bosnia, and
    Lebanon, and it is a member of the Proliferation Security
    Initiative, the Container Security Initiative, and the Global
    Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism.

    EU presidency priorities
    -----------------------------

    ¶4. (C) While agreement on a treaty for EU reform vice a
    Constitution was achieved during the German presidency,
    detailed negotiation and signature of the treaty will fall to
    the Portuguese presidency. This internal EU task will not
    derail Portugal,s external policy goals, but it will absorb
    scarce resources and high-level attention within the
    Portuguese government, ensuring that we will need to motivate
    Portugal on key issues.

    ¶5. (U) Foreign Minister Amado has noted that the EU,s
    biggest foreign policy concern is along its southern and
    southeastern borders, which are threatened by radical Islam
    and poverty. He has proposed strengthening the EU,s ties to
    Washington, Moscow, and Mediterranean countries to help
    contain radical Islam in that region; this strategy includes
    supporting Turkish accession to the EU, involving the EU more
    closely in the Middle East Peace Process, and strengthening
    the EU,s economic and cultural ties to the region through
    the Barcelona Process.

    ¶6. (C) The Portuguese are expected to take a facilitative
    approach, in stark contrast with the aggressive leadership of
    Germany,s presidency. They will seek broad consensus on
    most issues, dedicating their individual efforts to the few
    issues they care about: a strategic partnership with Africa
    and the Middle East processes noted above. Beyond those
    issues, the Portuguese governmental structure is occupied
    with a series of summits with Brazil, India, China, Russia,
    Ukraine, and Africa.

    ¶7. (C) The just completed EU-Brazil Summit was successful in
    establishing a long-term relationship with a significant
    partner and energizing the debate in Europe on biofuels.
    Portuguese interlocutors candidly told us that they did not
    expect much and that the summit was only the first step
    toward an EU-Brazil strategic partnership, but that they were
    delighted with the outcome. We believe this may raise
    Portuguese ambitions for the other summits.

    Suggested areas of focus
    ------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Kosovo: The Portuguese support the Ahtisaari proposal
    but have no alternative to having the Russians on board.
    They have seized on the idea of delaying the introduction of
    a UN Resolution while further talks continue and have no
    plans on how to react if the Kosovars declare independence
    unilaterally. A/S Fried,s July 9 appeal to the Kosovars not
    to do so pleased the Portuguese, but they need to understand
    that leaving Kosovo in limbo is not an option and that the
    Kosovars' patience -- even with US pressure -- is finite.

    ¶9. (C) Russia: Prime Minister Socrates visited Moscow
    recently and was criticized in many quarters for his failure
    to address aggressive behavior against allies Poland and
    Estonia, human rights issues, or Moscow,s penchant for

    LISBON 00001812 002 OF 003

    rhetoric and gamesmanship on energy and security. Indeed,
    Socrates, advisors suggested to us following the trip that
    we needed to tone down our own rhetoric in order to make
    various negotiations more fruitful.

    ¶10. (C) Middle East: The Portuguese believe they have little
    historical baggage in the region and thus can advance
    progress on key issues. They have stressed many times and at
    the highest levels that the Road Map is the way forward, but
    that it needs to be reinvigorated. Foreign Minister Amado
    backed away from the recent Mediterranean FMs, letter to
    Quartet Representative Tony Blair -- which he signed --
    stating that &the Road Map has failed,8 and a senior
    advisor was dismissive of the letter,s text, saying neither
    the EU nor the Portuguese position has changed. Amado has
    traveled extensively to the Middle East and was one of the
    first to call for a special session of EU Foreign Ministers
    at the onset of last summer,s hostilities in Lebanon.
    Portugal was prepared to commit forces to any potential
    peacekeeping force, even before the structure and sponsorship
    of such a force had been established. Portugal eventually
    sent a company of Army engineers to help with reconstruction.
    Amado told us that he sees Iran as the greatest threat since
    WWII, and his ministry has been supportive of tough measures
    in light of Iran's refusal to halt nuclear enrichment.

    ¶11. (C) Afghanistan: Portuguese Special Forces and other
    troops serve without caveat and are engaged in heavy
    fighting. The current company is scheduled to depart in
    February 2008 and replacements have not yet been designated
    or funded. The Portuguese stress that they are with us in
    Afghanistan for the duration of NATO operations, so
    congratulations for their current contributions are in order
    as well as encouragement to continue. Portugal has
    contributed $2 million in assistance; however, they are
    financially over-stretched and have not done more because of
    that.

    ¶12. (C) Iraq: Portugal contributed gendarme trainers for the
    NTM-I police training mission. Portugal recently downsized
    its diplomatic presence in Baghdad because of cost (its
    operations were four times as expensive as any other
    embassy), but let us know far in advance and wanted to
    coordinate what they said publicly as they were sensitive to
    the political ramifications.

    ¶13. (C) Africa: Portugal has a special relationship with
    Africa, particularly with its former colonies. It intends to
    host an EU-Africa Summit, although it has deferred diplomatic
    conflict over the Zimbabwe question, even though the UK, the
    Netherlands, and others may not attend at the head of
    government level should Mugabe attend. Although the
    Portuguese have led the development of an action plan between
    the EU and African Union, the negative ramifications of
    Mugabe's presence in Lisbon could overshadow any
    accomplishments.

    Particular Bilateral Points
    -------------------------------

    ¶14. (SBU) Portugal,s interest in Africa for the EU
    presidency is a good opportunity to underscore the progress
    in US-Portugal cooperation to strengthen security and
    stability in Africa. When Foreign Minister Amado was still
    Defense Minister, he strongly encouraged trilateral
    cooperation between the US, Portugal, and individual African
    countries on security issues in Africa. Since that time, we
    have conducted joint demining training in Guinea-Bissau and
    begun developing an HIV prevention program among African
    armed forces. We hope to include the Portuguese in
    peacekeeping training in Mozambique and Angola under the
    African Contingency Operations training and Assistance
    (ACOTA) program and a joint State-Defense team from
    Washington hopes to visit Lisbon this fall to discuss further
    opportunities.

    ¶15. (S/NF) Amado agreed to allow the repatriation of
    prisoners through Lajes Air Base on a case-by-case basis
    under limited circumstances. This was a difficult decision,
    given the sustained criticism by Portuguese media and leftist
    elements of his own party of the government,s handling of
    the CIA rendition flights controversy. Amado,s agreement
    has never been made public. The Attorney General,s Office
    was forced to review a dossier of news clippings and
    unsubstantiated allegations regarding CIA rendition
    operations through Portugal provided by a member of the
    European Parliament. The AG,s report should be released in
    the very near future. Although we cannot predict its
    conclusions, government insiders and legal scholars have told
    us there was no useful or prosecutable information in the
    dossier.

    LISBON 00001812 003 OF 003

    Prime Minister Socrates
    -----------------------

    ¶16. (C) Socrates is a telegenic and charismatic leader, who
    worked hard to improve his English in advance of the EU
    presidency. He relies on advice from a small circle of
    advisors. He is a very moderate Socialist who has been
    successful at co-opting or marginalizing the leftists in his
    party. He also aggressively pursued his domestic agenda
    before assuming the EU presidency, achieving difficult labor
    and social security reforms and reducing Portugal,s budget
    deficit to near EU-mandated levels.

    Foreign Minister Amado
    ----------------------

    ¶17. (C) You met with Amado last October in Washington and
    have spoken with him in person and on the telephone several
    times since. He has been a great friend of the US, both in
    his previous capacity as Minister of Defense and now as
    Foreign Minister. He is even-tempered, thoughtful, and
    low-key, and regularly seeks opportunities to coordinate
    policy with the US. He places great importance on presenting
    a united public front, whether within the EU, NATO or with
    the US. If there are differences, he prefers to discuss them
    discreetly behind closed doors.

    President Cavaco Silva
    ----------------------

    ¶18. (C) Cavaco Silva is the most popular politician in
    Portugal, even though his center-right party badly trails
    Socrates, Socialist Party in polls. Although the Portuguese
    presidency does not wield the executive power of the US
    presidency, the position is not ceremonial. Cavaco Silva is
    commander in chief of the armed forces and must approve all
    military deployments and chairs the Council of State, which
    handles all constitutional issues. Cavaco Silva considers
    former President George H.W. Bush a personal friend, with
    whom he developed a close relationship during his years as
    Prime Minister from 1985-95. The elder President Bush
    attended Cavaco Silva,s presidential inauguration in March
    ¶2006. Cavaco Silva was displeased that he did not get an
    Oval Office meeting with President George W. Bush during his
    recent visit to Washington to open a Smithsonian exhibition
    of Portuguese art, and he declined the former President
    Bush,s offer to visit Kennebunkport.

    Hoffman

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