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### Viewing cable 06PANAMA502, PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PANAMA502 | 2006-03-21 14:52 | 2011-05-31 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0005
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #0502/01 0801452
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 211452Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7626
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2208
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0969
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0606
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0844
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J5/J2/POLAD//

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000502

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM
    SUBJECT: PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING
    FOR 2009 ELECTIONS BEGINS -- PART I: THE FRONT RUNNERS

    Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION LUIS ARREAGA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
     AND (D).

    ¶1.  (U) This is part one in a three-part series.

    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶2.  (C) With over three years to go before the May 2009
    presidential elections, the ruling Democratic Revolutionary
    Party (PRD) is already full of ferment and rumors as
    potential candidates joust for position.  The U.S.-educated
    current front runners are cousins -- Vice President/Foreign
    Minister Samuel Lewis and Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos
    Navarro.  Given his ambition, political skills, and deep
    pockets -- and despite his long list of negatives -- former
    President Ernesto Perez Balladares (PB) should not be
    underestimated in his bid for the largely ceremonial PRD
    presidency, which many assume he will use as a stepping stone
    for higher office (See Part II).  Former anti-U.S. firebrands
    Balbina Herrera (now Housing Minister) and Hector Aleman
    (Minister of Government and Justice) are likely competitors
    for the single vice presidential slot in 2009, although most
    observers give Herrera the upper hand (See Part III).  With
    the Panamanian opposition parties in complete disarray, the
    PRD -- Panama,s biggest and best organized party -- appears
    well placed to gain back-to-back presidential terms.  But in
    Panama, as elsewhere, it ain't over till it's over.  End
    summary.

    Vice President/Foreign Minister Lewis
    -------------------------------------
    ¶3.  (SBU) On March 14 VP/Foreign Minister Samuel Lewis went
    out of his way with reporters to deny rumors that he is about
    to step down to launch his 2009 presidential campaign.  This
    time the rumors may not be true, but Lewis will have to
    contemplate leaving his posts to pursue Panama's presidency,
    which he covets.  President Torrijos allegedly chose Lewis as
    his first VP running mate due to the financial power he could
    bring to the campaign contributions and his international
    connections in Washington and abroad.  (Comment: No sonner
    did the rumor about Lewis's resignation hit than MOGJ Hector
    Aleman's name floated up as Lewis's purported replacement,
    improbably, given that Aleman does not speak English.  End
    Comment.)  Other observers claim that Lewis would like Panama
    to open relations with China, at the expense of Taiwan, with
    which Panama has maintained a diplomatic relationship for
    many years.

    Wanted: Wealthy Candidate With Good Connections
    --------------------------------------------- --
    ¶4.  (SBU) A wealthy 48-year-old international businessman
    with a distinguished pedigree of Panamanian forebears, Lewis
    is a former Canal board member and strongly supports free
    markets and Canal expansion.  Lewis would be an appealing
    presidential candidate for local businessmen who see him as
    an ally.  Many GOP insiders claim that Lewis is President
    Torrijos,s choice for presidential candidate.  A Lewis
    presidency would continue the "technocratic" trend begun by
    Torrijos.  A Georgetown University graduate, Lewis is
    pro-American, pro-free market and has been a close contact
    and friend of the U.S. Government.

    The Outsider
    ------------
    ¶5.  (C) Lewis has plenty of political experience but he lacks
    a broad-based constituency.  Also, whatever political clout
    he may have within the PRD he mostly owes to Torrijos.  Many
    PRDistas see him as an outsider.  In fact, according to
    highly placed PRD sources, Lewis has not yet joined the PRD.
    Lewis was most recently (until February 2003) vice president
    of the Solidarity Party founded by his uncle, Samuel Lewis
    Galindo.  (Note: Lewis worked on his uncle's presidential
    campaign and that of his relative Alberto Vallarino in 1999.
    Interestingly, banker Vallarino's name pops up most often
    among opposition presidential possibilities for 2009.  End
    note.)  Lewis probably would win strong support from PRD
    heavyweights such as presidential advisor Jorge Eduardo
    Ritter and foreign ministry advisor Adolfo Ahumada.  Also,
    the PRD,s youngest board member, Samuel Buitrago, has

    signaled his willingness to attract youth support for Lewis.

    Panama City Mayor Navarro
    -------------------------
    ¶6.  (U) Lewis's most likely opponent for the 2009
    presidential nomination is Panama City's highly popular,
    photogenic mayor, Juan Carlos Navarro (45).  Navarro was
    re-elected in May 2004 by a broad margin to serve a second
    five-year term.  Harvard and Dartmouth educated, Navarro is
    pro-American and pro-free markets.  Navarro once was
    considered Torrijos,s most likely rival for the PRD,s 2004
    presidential nomination but after internal party conflicts,
    Navarro decided to pursue re-election as mayor instead.  This
    time around, Navarro is not being discreet about his 2009
    presidential ambitions and is carefully but vigorously
    campaigning for the nomination.

    Who Will Torrijos Back?
    -----------------------
    ¶7.  (SBU) Navarro,s first move was to get himself elected as
    head of the National Mayors, Association.  The Association
    holds frequent meetings all over the country, giving Navarro
    wide political exposure outside Panama City.  Navarro does
    not waste any opportunity to appear before the media and
    constantly appears on TV/radio talk shows and live interviews
    to discuss his mayoral projects.  That exposure gives him a
    leg up over Lewis, but the all important issue is who
    Torrijos will back, and most observers give the edge to
    Lewis.  Still, the PRD is Panama's only party which uses a
    democratic primary process to choose its leaders and
    nominees, so support from Torrijos, while important, might
    not be enough.

    Open Warfare with PB
    --------------------
    ¶8.  (SBU) Navarro's comments on a March 15 talk show --
    attributing rising energy prices to PB's mid-1990s
    privatizations -- sparked a stinging exchange of accusations
    and counter accusations with Perez Balladares, who basically
    said that Navarro didn't know what he was talking about,
    while reminding the media of a fawning letter that Navarro
    once wrote to former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega.  In
    return, Navarro lashed out at what he called PB's "egoism and
    uncontrolable arrogance, his excessive fortune and his barely
    concealed and unhealthy obsession to regain the presidency."
    Navarro also did not fail to remind his audience that PB had
    lost his U.S. visa -- "to the shame of all Panamanians."

    ¶9.  (SBU) Despite some reluctance Navarro publicly defended
    Torrijos,s unpopular fiscal and social security reforms to
    gain Torrijos,s blessing for a potential 2009 presidential
    run.  Navarro,s political strategist, Ivan Gonzalez, told
    Emboff that &Torrijos is not supporting us yet, but he is
    not against us either, so we need to be careful.8  Not only
    is Navarro looking over his shoulder at first cousin Samuel
    Lewis, he also is concerned about the potential candidacy
    former President Perez Balladares.  There is a story that a
    year or so ago, Navarro walked into PB's office just to tell
    him that he planned to run for president.

    ¶10.  (SBU) Navarro is an environmental pioneer in Panama.  He
    founded the National Association for Nature Conservation
    (ANCON) in 1985, and served as its Executive Director.
    Panama,s foremost environmental advocacy group, under
    Navarro ANCON succeeded in preserving a large tract of Darien
    province as a wilderness area and wildlife santuary.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶11.  (C) It is far too soon to place bets, but either Lewis
    or Navarro are well-placed to become the PRD,s presidential
    candidate.  In addition to their party connections, they meet
    several of the &traditional8 presidential requirements --
    they both are upper class, white, good looking, influential,
    and locally and internationally well-connected Panamanians.
    Former President Perez Balladares (See part II) would be a
    hard sell for the party -- he lost a 1998 referendum to allow
    him to run for a second term, he is not well-liked and his
    U.S. visa was revoked.

    EATON

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