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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO647, ALCKMIN'S CAMPAIGN COORDINATOR CLAIMS LULA'S POLL NUMBERS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO647 | 2006-06-07 18:49 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO1348
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0647/01 1581849
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 071849Z JUN 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5227
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6329
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2969
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7161
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2612
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2289
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 1393
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0327
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2840
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1006
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2016
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0328
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1007
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1745
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2466
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SAO PAULO 000647

    SIPDIS

    STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
    STATE PASS EXIMBANK
    STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
    DEPT OF TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWARD
    USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/SHUPKA
    DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
    NSC FOR CRONIN
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
    AID/W FOR LAC/AA

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ETRD ECPS BR
    SUBJECT: ALCKMIN'S CAMPAIGN COORDINATOR CLAIMS LULA'S POLL NUMBERS
    MASK STRENGTH OF PSDB/PFL POLITICAL MACHINE

    REF: (A) SAO PAULO 623; (B) BRASILIA 1015 AND PREVIOUS;

         (C) RECIFE 65;     (D) SAO PAULO 316

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) Despite a series of recent opinion polls that show
    President Lula maintaining a lead of more than twenty points, with a
    chance to be re-elected in the first round, Geraldo Alckmin's
    campaign coordinator told Charg that the PSDB is methodically
    building grassroots political networks throughout the country that
    will help Alckmin overtake Lula once the campaign begins in earnest
    in August.  Joao Carlos Meirelles dismissed reports of divisions in
    the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), claiming the party is
    fully united behind Alckmin.  He also said the PSDB has negotiated
    strong alliances with the Liberal Front Party (PFL) and the smaller
    center-left Popular Socialist Party (PPS), which should help the Sao
    Paulo-based PSDB in other parts of the country where Alckmin is not
    well known.  He claimed that Lula's impressive poll numbers do not
    reflect the ability of local political bosses to get out the vote
    for Alckmin on election day.  Meirelles, who is responsible for
    developing Alckmin's government program, indicated that if elected,
    Alckmin would be open to discussing "a new kind of relationship"
    with the United States to include cooperation on regional and global
    issues. When queried by Charge, he said an Alckmin government would
    be willing to revisit the digital TV standard issue, assuming there
    were legal grounds to do so.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Charg d'Affaires (CDA), accompanied by Consul General
    (CG) and Poloff, met June 2 with Joao Carlos de Souza Meirelles (ref
    D), unofficial coordinator of opposition PSDB presidential candidate
    Geraldo Alckmin's campaign.  Meirelles managed Alckmin's successful
    2002 campaign for re-election as Governor of Sao Paulo state and
    served both Alckmin and his predecessor, the late Mario Covas, as
    State Secretary for Science, Technology, and Economic Development.
    Although PSDB Senator Sergio Guerra from the northeastern state of
    Pernambuco is Alckmin's national campaign manager, Meirelles is in
    charge of coordinating day-to-day operations and is also responsible
    for developing the government program.

    ¶3.  (U) Several polls published in late May (see ref B) and early
    June show Lula's lead growing.  An "Ibope" poll released June 1
    shows Lula with 48 percent and Alckmin with 19 percent in a
    first-round vote, a spread of 29 points.  If only valid votes are
    counted, Lula would exceed the 50 percent required to win in the
    first round.  If the polls are any indication, he appears to have
    emerged relatively unscathed from the corruption scandals that have
    dominated the political agenda for the past year, though his
    Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT) has been badly
    damaged.  Alckmin, in the meantime, has run a low-key, lackluster
    campaign that has gone almost unnoticed by the voters.  Yet, when
    asked about the electoral situation, Meirelles disavowed any deep
    concern.

    -----------------------------------
    "WE HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO CAMPAIGN"
    -----------------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) At the moment, he explained, Alckmin is not really

    SAO PAULO 00000647  002 OF 004

    campaigning and in fact cannot by law offcially campaign before July
    ¶5.  The PSDB will hold its national convention June 11.  (NOTE:  Per
    the electoral calendar, all political parties must hold their
    national and state conventions between June 10 and June 30.  END
    NOTE.)  That convention will formally approve Alckmin as the
    presidential candidate.  The PFL convention June 14 will confirm
    Jose Jorge of Pernambuco (see ref C) as the Vice-Presidential
    candidate on Alckmin's ticket, sealing the alliance concluded and
    announced May 31.  The small, center-left Popular Socialist Party
    (PPS), at its June 16 convention, will also announce its formal
    alliance with the PSDB and PFL.

    ¶5.  (SBU) The PT, meanwhile, has sealed its alliance with the
    Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), but has been unable to reach
    agreement with the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) due to a dispute
    over who would be the coalition's candidate for Governor of
    Pernambuco, the PSB national president Eduardo Campos or PT former
    Health Minister Humberto Costa.  According to Meirelles, the PSB is
    negotiating an alliance with Vice President Alencar's party the
    Brazilian Republic Party (PRB), which is closely affiliated with the
    evangelical Universal Church of the Kingdom of God.  If the PSB
    declines to enter into an alliance with the PT, Lula will be unable
    to choose PSB Minister of National Integration (and two-time
    presidential candidate) Ciro Gomes as his running mate.  Gomes will
    instead run for Federal Deputy in the hopes that his popularity will
    boost the PSB's vote total.

    ¶6.  (SBU) Meanwhile, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB)
    - "a big federation of parties" - will decide June 11 whether or not
    to run its own candidate for President.  Meirelles was confident the
    PMDB will decide not to run a candidate, and will also decide not to
    enter into an alliance with the PT at the national level or provide
    Lula's running mate.  Such an alliance would tie the party's hands
    in its many state races because of the "verticalization" rule (see
    ref A for an insider's view of the PSDB's deliberations).

    ¶7.  (SBU) The PSDB-PFL-PPS coalition, Meirelles continued, is
    developing strategies in each of the states.  There are seventeen
    parties represented in Congress.  All but the largest four will
    struggle to achieve the five percent threshold in balloting for
    Federal Deputy that they need under the "Barrier Clause,"
    implemented for the first time in this year's elections, to retain
    their privileges and thus their viability.  This situation gives the
    PSDB negotiating space with some of the smaller parties.  In
    Pernambuco and the Federal District, Meirelles said, they will
    support the PMDB candidates for Governor in return for PMDB support.
     The coalition-building activities will continue through the end of
    June.  The campaign formally begins July 5, but it won't really heat
    up until August 15, when the free television and radio advertising
    begins.  The real campaign takes place in those last six weeks
    between August 15 and October 1.

    ----------------------------------
    "WE'RE USED TO COMING FROM BEHIND"
    ----------------------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) According to Meirelles, around September 7, Brazilian
    Independence Day, voters begin to search for their voter
    registration cards and to think about who they're going to vote for.
     Until then, the polls are essentially name-recognition exercises.
    Lula has run for President four times before, and twice the campaign
    went to the second round.  Thus, this is Lula's seventh national

    SAO PAULO 00000647  003 OF 004

    campaign, and his name is universally known, especially since "he's
    been campaigning for the past three and a half years."  Alckmin is
    well known in Sao Paulo and other parts of the populous southeast
    and south, but not elsewhere.  Accordingly, it's not surprising he's
    so far behind in the polls.  Nor, Meirelles pointed out, is it all
    that unusual.  PSDB candidates are used to coming from behind.  In
    1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso started out with around 8-10 percent
    support in the polls and ended up winning in the first round of the
    presidential election.  In the 2002 Sao Paulo gubernatorial
    election, Paulo Maluf was leading the pack with 43 percent of the
    vote, and the next three other candidates had 40 percent combined;
    however, in the end, Alckmin and PT President Jose Genoino went to
    the second round, and Alckmin prevailed.

    ¶9.  (SBU) Once the real campaign begins, Meirelles predicted, Lula
    will be revealed as the candidate of the "new populism," which lacks
    answers for problems of education, health care, energy, and
    infrastructure.  His poll numbers of 40-45 percent represent his
    ceiling; he can only fall.  Even the most optimistic of PT members
    admit the party will be lucky to elect 60 candidates to the Chamber
    of Deputies; Meirelles noted it has good gubernatorial candidates in
    only a few states.  The party lacks the network needed to conduct a
    strong national campaign.  The PSDB, on the other hand, won three
    consecutive statewide elections in Sao Paulo, the most populous
    state.  Alckmin, after six years as Lieutenant Governor and five as
    Governor, left office with a 69 percent approval rating.  His 18-20
    percent showing in the polls can only grow.

    ¶10.  (SBU) CG inquired into the PSDB's unity.  There are persistent
    rumors that supporters of former Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra, who had
    sought the nomination, don't have their hearts in Alckmin's
    campaign.  Many observers have also posited that Minas Gerais
    Governor (and party leader) Aecio Neves would actually prefer to see
    Lula win this year, since Alckmin's defeat would pave the way for
    Neves, whose presidential ambitions are well known, to run in 2010.
    Meirelles insisted that the PSDB is totally united behind Alckmin.
    The party's politicians, including Neves and Serra, know that if he
    loses, they lose, and that the most important thing is to return the
    PSDB to power.

    ------------------------------
    BILATERAL RELATIONS AND ISSUES
    ------------------------------

    ¶11.  (SBU) CDA recalled that when the Deputy Secretary visited
    Brazil last October, he noted that the U.S. and Brazil have good,
    cooperative relations, but have lost opportunities to develop a
    stronger, deeper strategic relationship.  We would like to pursue
    such a relationship with the next government, CDA said, including by
    reviving FTAA negotiations.  By not negotiating free trade with the
    U.S., Brazil was missing out on an opportunity to export ethanol
    duty-free into the United States, and other countries were beginning
    to fill the vacuum.  We would like to work more closely with Brazil
    on sugar cane and ethanol.  The USG is forming an inter-agency group
    on ethanol.  Meirelles said if Alckmin were elected, his
    administration would be absolutely open to discussing a new kind of
    relationship, not only in bilateral terms but also with respect to
    cooperation in South America and elsewhere in the world.

    ¶12.  (SBU) Charg expressed disappointment with the deeply flawed
    process the GoB had used to choose its digital TV standard.
    Meirelles indicated that this was a sensitive issue because major

    SAO PAULO 00000647  004 OF 004

    media groups favored adoption of the Japanese standard, and no
    politician wanted to oppose them.  An Alckmin administration would
    be open to discussing the issue with the USG, but it was not clear
    what flexibility the GoB would have, and would not be known until
    President Lula's decision were formalized and announced.

    ¶13.  (U) Meirelles indicated he spends several days a week in
    Brasilia and would be pleased to meet with Charg and emboffs later
    in the campaign to touch base.

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶14.  (SBU)  To date, Alckmin's campaign has been almost invisible,
    while Lula has taken full advantage of the benefits of incumbency,
    appearing constantly on television and taking full credit when good
    economic news emerges.  In that sense, Meirelles is correct that
    Lula's lead in the polls is only to be expected at this stage.  His
    analysis of the alliances and coalitions shaping up also makes
    sense.  But the PSDB announced Alckmin as its candidate in mid-March
    amidst great expectations that he would give Lula a serious run for
    the money, and his failure thus far to resonate with the voters has
    many people scratching their heads.  Perhaps Meirelles is right, and
    things will change in August with the saturation radio and TV
    advertising.  But much will depend on whether, between now and then,
    Geraldo Alckmin, trained and licensed as an anesthesiologist, can
    learn how not to put people to sleep.  END COMMENT.

    ¶15. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia.

    MCMULLEN

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