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### Viewing cable 07MANAGUA810, POLITICAL PUNDITS PLACE ORTEGA GOVERNMENT ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MANAGUA810 | 2007-03-29 18:04 | 2011-06-21 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

`

    VZCZCXRO9284
    PP RUEHLMC
    DE RUEHMU #0810/01 0881804
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 291804Z MAR 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9637
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1035
    RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
    RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000810

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    WHA/CEN, DRL

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
    TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
    SUBJECT: POLITICAL PUNDITS PLACE ORTEGA GOVERNMENT ON
    YELLOW ALERT (C-AL7-00063)

    REF: MANAGUA 0242

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli.  Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Six of Nicaragua's leading political
    analysts concur that the Ortega administration has already
    reached "yellow alert" status and that President Ortega's
    primordial objective is to consolidate power.  Over breakfast
    at the Ambassador's residence, they lauded our government's
    approach towards Ortega, and believe it may prevent him from
    falling exclusively under Venezuelan President Chavez' orbit
    of influence.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Over breakfast hosted by the Ambassador on March
    28, six of Nicaragua's leading political analysts, whose
    political inclinations span Nicaragua's political spectrum,
    discussed their respective assessments of the Ortega
    administration thus far.  Guests included
    Conservative-leaning Gabriel Alvarez, a constitutional
    expert; Sergio Garcia Quintero, a Liberal-dissident jurist;
    Luis Humberto Guzman, former National Assembly president and
    Christian Democrat; Cairo Manuel Lopez, a constitutional
    expert, president of NGO Pro Justicia, and a Social
    Christian; Alejandro Martinez Cuenca, an economist, director
    of economic think-tank FIDEG, and a member of the FSLN; and,
    Carlos Tunnerman, a Sandinista dissident involved in the NGO
    Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN), former Minister of Education
    during the 1980s Sandinista regime, and one-time ambassador
    to the United States during the same period.

    U.S. Policy on the Mark, Aid Should Target the Poor
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶3.  (C) Initiating the conversation, Martinez Cuenca
    (Reftel), thanked the Ambassador for the invitation and our
    policy vis-a-vis the Ortega government.  He termed our
    approach the best means to prevent President Ortega from
    using the pretext of a "hostile U.S. government" as
    justification to fall exclusively within Venezuela's orbit of
    influence.  He offered that our lack of public reaction to
    Ortega's occasional anti-U.S. rhetoric is helpful, and
    encouraged us to ramp up the promotion of our assistance
    programs so people are more aware of our support.  Martinez
    Cuenca, who commented that the USAID insert in the March 26
    editions of the two dailies La Prensa and El Nuevo Diario was
    an effective step towards this end, also suggested we
    dedicate more of our assistance to help the needy.

    ¶4.  (C) Garcia Quintero, who advises the Japanese on their
    assistance programs, underscored the importance of "donor
    branding" so that the people recognize the origin of the
    donations and can effectively monitor project implementation.
     Tunnerman referred to Secretary Leavitt's medical training
    initiative as a valuable project because it targets the rural
    poor.  Lopez suggested we increase our exchange programs and
    other public diplomacy activities, while Guzman underscored
    the importance of our military assistance and
    counternarcotics support.

    Yellow Alert
    - - - - - -

    ¶5.  (C) Martinez Cuenca's view that Ortega administration
    actions have triggered a "yellow alert" drew vigorous nods of
    approval from his colleagues.  Tunnerman ventured that the
    Ortega government's actions are bordering on "orange."
    Alvarez added that in some respects Nicaragua had reached the
    "yellow alert" stage before the November 2006 national
    elections, as voting results were manipulated to alter the
    composition of the National Assembly to favor Ortega and
    fellow political pact mate Arnoldo Aleman.  He criticized
    Nicaraguans and the international community for not having
    insisted that the Ortega-Aleman-controlled Supreme Electoral
    Commission (CSE) issue the final election results -- polling
    center by polling center -- which could have helped detect
    the fraud.

    It's all about Power, the Battle between Democracy and
    Authoritarianism
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) The analysts were unanimous in their view that
    President Ortega is an astute, wily, street-smart,
    caudillo-style politician who adeptly manipulates popular
    sentiment and pits both his supporters and enemies against
    one another to maintain the upper hand.  Tunnerman remarked
    that this time around, a more "pragmatic" Ortega has shed his
    socially-minded ideology and is now driven purely by his
    desire to consolidate power in the hands of his inner circle
    - namely himself, wife Rosario, and their offspring.  The
    1980s Sandinista government was run by a junta, not Ortega
    alone, reminded Tunnerman.  Rosario was relegated to a minor
    role, but now she commands daily operations, explained
    Tunnerman.

    ¶7.  (C) Tunnerman added that while the Sandinistas of the
    1980s were committed to a "social project," this time around
    Ortega possesses no clear government plan and is driven
    exclusively by his unquenchable thirst for power, akin to the
    Somoza regime.  He postulated that President Ortega will use
    whatever means at his disposal to legalize and legitimize his
    actions to convince observers that he remains within a
    democratic framework.  Thus it is understandable that today's
    Ortega will court foreign and domestic capital -- even
    sweet-talk potential U.S. investors -- while completely
    discarding the rule of law.  Lopez remarked that wealthy
    Sandinistas who support the new government will also do their
    utmost to protect their business interests and seek new
    foreign business partners. Alvarez conjectured that what is
    at stake is no longer a matter of left versus right; rather,
    the struggle is between authoritarianism and democracy.

    Economic Decline Could Become Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
    - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶8.  (C) The analysts shared the Ambassador's concern that
    Nicaragua's economy shows signs of deterioration, and a
    downturn could become a self-fulfilling prophecy that
    President Ortega would exploit to impose a more
    authoritarian, market-hostile, economic model.  Martinez
    Cuenca enumerated a decline in housing starts, a slowdown in
    investment, private sector reluctance to restock inventories,
    the country's unresolved energy crisis, and a looming drought
    that could cause serious water and power shortages as areas
    of special concern.  If these trends continue, they could
    ultimately spark an economic crisis -- in a soon as 60 days
    -- that Ortega would use to "justify" the imposition of a
    more authoritarian economic model, he warned.

    Limits on Ortega Will Kick in as the Euphoria Wanes
    - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - -  - - - - - -

    ¶9.  (C) Lopez predicted that as Sandinista euphoria over
    their victory abates, the FSLN's internal struggles for party
    control will escalate.  It will also become increasingly
    evident to the public that most of Ortega's cabinet ministers
    are mediocre and ill-prepared to resolve Nicaragua's
    problems.  And, while Venezuela can provide oil and other
    material goods to Nicaragua, it cannot offer the technical
    expertise of more developed countries that Nicaragua so
    desperately needs.  Guzman observed that Ortega's powers in
    some ways are more limited this time around, as he no longer
    enjoys the "social hegemony" of the 1980s and international
    limitations, including the IMF will check him.

    Social Apathy, Divided Opposition Advantage Ortega
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶10.  (C) The analysts agreed that widespread social apathy
    combined with the political opposition's lack of direction
    advantage Ortega and his race to consolidate power.  Garcia
    Quintero dwelled on what he termed the "indefinable
    idiosyncrasies" of Nicaragua's social dynamics that can
    propel mercurial Nicaraguans from "the sublime and heroic to
    the ridiculous" in no time.  He believes that most
    Nicaraguans resist displaying their "confrontational heroism"
    of the 1980s and prefer now to let someone else make the
    first move.

    ¶11.  (C) Despite the pervasive consternation, the analysts
    evinced various shades of optimism.  Tunnerman was hopeful
    that groups like Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) can help
    contain Ortega and defend the country's embattled democracy.
    He reported that students from the Polytechnic University
    recently asked the MpN to help arrange a rally on 29 March in
    protest of the Ortega government's poor performance thus far.
     (The MpN recently issued Ortega a failing report card for
    his government's poor performance during the first 60 days).
    While all guests agreed that civil society can play a pivotal
    role in curbing Ortega's excesses, Garcia Quintero argued
    that political opposition parties, not civil society, should
    lead the charge.  Lopez countered that in an ideal scenario,
    political parties should set the course; however, given their
    lack of focus and disingenuousness, they are not yet up to
    the task.

    100 Days the "Drop-Dead" Mark
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶12.  (C) Martinez Cuenca shared with the group his message to
    the Ortega administration that he will reserve judgment on
    its performance until it passes the 100-day mark.  He invited
    his colleagues to join him in sharing their assessment with
    the public at that point.

    Comment
    - - - -

    ¶13.  (C) Daniel Ortega's motives have not really changed --
    his blind ambition for power is by no means a recently
    acquired trait.  Rather, he altered his tactics, adopting a
    conciliatory demeanor during the election campaign and
    pre-inauguration periods after his confrontational approach
    failed -- and specializing in double discourse since January
    ¶10.  We will encourage these and other political pundits to
    put together a forum to mark the Ortega administration's
    first 100 days and to publish their assessments.
    TRIVELLI

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