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### Viewing cable 07MANAGUA495, NICARAGUA: CAFTA Update

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MANAGUA495 | 2007-02-26 12:53 | 2011-06-21 08:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Managua

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #0495/01 0571253
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 261253Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9213
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 0839

` `

    UNCLAS MANAGUA 000495

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    STATE PASS TO WHA/CEN, WHA/ESPC, EB/TPP, EB/CBA
    CENT AM POSTS ALSO FOR FCS
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/MSIEGELMAN and for
    3134/ITA/USFCS/OIO/WH/MKESHISHIAN,BARTHUR

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD EAGR EINV ECIN ECON BEXP NU
    SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: CAFTA Update

    REF: Managua 01990

    ¶1. (U) Summary: Nicaraguan exports to the United
    States during the first year of CAFTA performed
    extremely well.  Total exports to the United States
    increased 29.2%, growing from $1.18 billion in 2005 to
    $1.53 billion in 2006.  The Nicaraguan government
    separates free trade zone exports and general exports,
    which explains why its statistics are quite different
    from those we report.  Top Nicaraguan exports to the
    United States fell into three product categories: knit
    apparel, woven apparel, and automobile wiring
    harnesses Q all manufactured primarily in free trade
    zones.  Other Nicaraguan exports to the United States
    showing the strongest performance on the year included
    coffee, sugar, vegetables, tobacco products, and gold.
    Reflecting changing patterns of trade, both the number
    of products exported and number of Nicaraguan
    companies engaged in export to the United States
    increased.

    ¶2. (U) Nicaragua imported almost 21% more from the
    United States in 2006 than it did in 2005.  Leading
    imports include machinery, cereals, electrical
    machinery, vehicles, optical equipment, fats and oils,
    and plastic products.  Most of these imports are going
    into production of some kind.  According to the
    Ministry of Trade, Industry and Development (MIFIC),
    imports of capital goods accounted for 22% of total
    imports from the United States in 2006, intermediate
    goods almost 29%, and petroleum products 13%.

    ¶3. (U) At least $235 million in new investments have
    been Qhighly influencedQ by NicaraguaQs membership in
    CAFTA.  Investments on another $233 million in this
    same category are currently under consideration.
    These Qhighly influencedQ investments are
    predominantly in textiles and apparel industries. End
    Summary.

    Exports to the United States
    ----------------------------

    ¶4. (U) Nicaraguan exports to the United States during
    the first year of CAFTA performed extremely well.
    Total exports to the United States increased 29.2%,
    growing from $1.18 billion in 2005 to $1.53 billion in
    ¶2006.  Since CAFTA entered into force on April 1,
    2006, exports to the United States grew 28.5% compared
    to the same period in 2005.  Top exports to the United
    States fell into three broad product categories: knit
    apparel, woven apparel, and automobile wiring
    harnesses Q all manufactured primarily in free trade
    zones.  These three categories accounted for
    approximately $1 billion in trade with the United
    States, up 20% from 2005.

    ¶5. (U) Other exports to the United States showing
    strong performances in 2006 were as follows:

    --  coffee and spices, up 82% to $67 million, largely
        because of high coffee prices;

    --  sugar, up 62% to $26 million, largely because of a
        second tariff rate quota afforded to Nicaragua
        under CAFTA;

    --  vegetables, up 55% to $11 million, largely
        because of the export of new products to the
        United States under CAFTA;

    --  tobacco products, up 18% to $26 million, largely a
        reflection of growing U.S. consumer demand for
        Nicaraguan cigars; and

    --  gold and precious stones registered an increase of
        12% to $ $23 million, largely a reflection of high
        gold prices in 2006.

    Statistical Discrepancies
    -------------------------

    ¶6. (U) We must note that for national income and
    accounting purposes, the Government of Nicaragua draws
    a clear distinction between free trade zone exports
    and general exports, tracking the two as if they were
    separate statistics.  Additionally, there are other
    discrepancies with the way Nicaragua collects data on
    exports.  As the following paragraph demonstrates,
    U.S. officials should be careful to state that our
    trade figures are based on U.S. Customs data, and
    include free trade zone exports to the United States.

    ¶7. (U) The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Development
    (MIFIC) reports trade statistics on the impact of
    CAFTA that are quite different from those of the
    United States International Trade Commission (USITC).
    For example, since CAFTA entered into force on April
    1, 2006, MIFIC reports that exports to the United
    States rose 10.1%, to $239 million, while imports from
    the United States rose 28.5%, to $498 million.  For
    MIFIC, these flows translate into a bilateral trade
    deficit with the United States of $259 million, 52%
    more than in 2005.  The report notes that major
    Nicaraguan exports to the United States include
    coffee, seafood, beef, sugar, tobacco products, gold,
    and vegetables.  The difference between MIFIC and
    USITC statistics is mostly, but not completely,
    explained by MIFICQs exclusion of free trade zone
    imports and exports.

    A Look at CAFTA Quotas
    ----------------------

    ¶8. (U) CAFTA established a series of tariff quotas for
    Nicaragua for some strategic agricultural products,
    including beef, sugar, peanuts, peanut oil, cheeses,
    dairy products, ice-cream, milk and cream.  Indeed,
    these products are among NicaraguaQs leading exports
    to the United States.  Nicaragua fully utilized its
    cheese and sugar quotas under CAFTA in 2006, but
    underutilized its quotas on peanut butter, ice-cream,
    milk and cream.  Nicaragua did not utilize its CAFTA
    beef quota because it had not first exhausted its
    quota provided by the United States under the World
    Trade Organization.

    ¶9. (U) While Nicaraguan peanut production has rapidly
    grown in recent years, local producers managed to fill
    only 14.9% of their quota under CAFTA.  Nicaraguan
    officials have told us that this is because U.S.
    producers of peanuts are very competitive in their
    home market.  The Government of Nicaragua believes
    that its producers can compete with U.S. producers in
    third country markets, particularly Mexico, but that
    U.S. credit guarantees give U.S. peanut exporters an
    unfair advantage.  For this reason, Nicaragua joined
    Canada, Argentina, Australia and others in a recent
    request for WTO consultations on the application of
    U.S. agricultural subsidies.

    Changing Trade Patterns
    -----------------------

    ¶10. (U) One of the most important CAFTA developments
    may at first seem insignificant because the export
    quantities are so small.  MIFIC reports that since
    CAFTA entered into force, Nicaragua exported 274
    products to the United States for the first time,
    including cotton underwear and nightgowns, chili
    peppers, billiard accessories, razor blades,
    ornamental fish, papaya, and plantains.  Some of these
    products, or groups of products, promise to become
    significant export categories for Nicaragua in the
    future and, thus, greatly diversify Nicaraguan exports
    to the United States and the rest of the World.

    ¶11. (U) A look at which companies are exporting also
    reflects changing trade patterns.  MIFIC reported that
    372 Nicaraguan companies exported during April-
    December of 2006, the nine-month period after which
    CAFTA took effect.  While 10 leading companies
    accounted for slightly more than 46% of total exports
    to the United States, 235 companies exported less than
    $100,000.  The number of companies exporting more than
    $100,000 grew 15%, to 126.  The total number of
    companies exporting to the United States grew by 4%
    over that of 2005, while the average exported by each
    company grew by 6%.  In short, more companies are
    exporting more product, and more types of products, to
    the United States than before CAFTA.  Again, while
    these movements are small, they point to changing
    trade patterns for Nicaragua.

    Imports from the United States
    ------------------------------

    ¶12. (U) Using USITC statistics, Nicaragua imported
    almost 21% more from the United States in 2006 than it
    did in 2005, growing to $755 million from $625
    million.  Since CAFTA entered into force, Nicaraguan
    imports from the United States increased almost 17%
    when compared to same period in 2005.  Leading imports
    from the United States include machinery, cereals,
    electrical machinery, vehicles, optical equipment,
    fats and oils, and plastic products.  Most of these
    imports are going into production of some kind.  MIFIC
    trade statistics for 2006 show that imports of capital
    goods accounted for 22% of total imports from the
    United States in 2006, intermediate goods almost 29%,
    and petroleum products 13%.  Consumer goods accounted
    for 35% of total imports from the United States in
    ¶2006.  Reflecting the depth of the U.S. economy,
    imports are more evenly distributed over a wider range
    of products than are Nicaraguan exports to the United
    States.

    Investment
    ----------

    ¶13. (U) ProNicaragua, the governmentQs investment
    promotion agency, reports that at least $235 million
    in new and active investments were Qhighly influenced
    by NicaraguaQs membership in CAFTA.  The largest of
    these is U.S.-based ITG Cone DenimQs new $100 million
    textile plant currently under construction in Ciudad
    Sandino.  Half of the fifteen enterprises involved are
    already operating -- all but one are manufacturers of
    textiles or apparel.  Together, these companies will
    directly employ more than 13,000 Nicaraguans.  Another
    sixteen enterprises, mostly in textiles and apparel,
    are considering investing another $233 million as a
    result of NicaraguaQs membership in CAFTA.  If these
    new investments materialize, they would directly
    employ another 9500 Nicaraguans.  NicaraguaQs
    membership in CAFTA has also inspired a number of
    companies to re-invest in existing operations and the
    expansion production.

    Conclusion
    ----------

    ¶14. (SBU) Though still early days, Nicaragua is
    clearly benefiting from CAFTA.  Exports are up and
    more companies are trading a growing variety of goods.
    Once companies begin to export, they become more
    confident in their abilities to do business in new
    markets and with new products.  Anecdotal evidence
    suggests that a growing number of small- and medium-
    sized businesses are borrowing to invest in the
    manufacture of components and other items for export.

    ¶15. (SBU) USITC trade statistics reveal that no
    country has benefited more from CAFTA at this early
    juncture than Nicaragua.  This partially reflects the
    fact that Nicaragua started from a lower base than its
    Central American neighbors, with fewer industries
    enjoying effective tariff protection.  It partially
    reflects the fact that NicaraguaQs clothing and
    apparel industry was not well integrated into regional
    supply chains that experienced disruption when fellow
    countries implemented CAFTA on different dates.  It
    also may reflect certain competitive advantages for
    Nicaragua.  For example, the country has plenty of
    arable land and water for agriculture.  Nicaragua
    offers textile and apparel manufacturers the lowest
    labor wages in Central America.  Nicaragua has the
    only Trade Preference Level (TPL) among CAFTA
    countries, allowing it to import low cost third
    country fabric for the manufacture and export of
    apparel to the United States.  Nicaragua also has the
    lowest crime rate in Central America.  Despite the
    lack of infrastructure and irregularities in the legal
    system, these factors make the country a relatively
    attractive place to invest, particularly in
    agriculture and light manufacturing.

    ¶16. (SBU) Equally significant is that the
    administration of former President Enrique Bolanos
    worked hard to improve customs, tax collections, and
    reduce red tape for investors.  Bolanos stabilized
    inflation, reduced foreign debt, grew foreign exchange
    reserves, and stabilized foreign exchange rates.  In
    addition, his administration successfully marketed the
    country to investors, providing tax and investment
    incentives when necessary.  On January 10, Bolanos
    handed power over to newly elected President Daniel
    Ortega, and left the job of promoting Nicaragua to a
    new administration with a very different approach to
    government.  The jury is out as to how hard OrtegaQs
    administration will work to fulfill the promise of
    private sector-led growth and development that
    membership in CAFTA holds for Nicaragua.

    BRENNAN

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