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### Viewing cable 07PHNOMPENH904, RUDDERLESS FUNCINPEC NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07PHNOMPENH904 | 2007-07-03 10:24 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Phnom Penh

`

    VZCZCXRO2051
    PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
    DE RUEHPF #0904/01 1841024
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 031024Z JUL 07
    FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8666
    INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 000904

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2017
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
    SUBJECT: RUDDERLESS FUNCINPEC NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT

    Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Jennifer Spande for reason 1.4 (b).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary.  FUNCINPEC's leaders appear to have no
    guiding vision for their party and are disjointedly
    discussing party independence, reunification with the Norodom
    Ranariddh Party (NRP), and a continued coalition with the
    ruling CPP.  At a June 28 lunch with the Ambassador and DCM,
    FUNCINPEC President Keo Puth Rasmey, Prince Sisowath
    Sirirath, and Minister of Education Kol Pheng found it easier
    to revel in the party's glory days and lampoon Prince Norodom
    Ranariddh than to put forward any definite strategy for the
    party's growth.  Instead, the leaders gave the impression of
    marking their time, that they are willing to cooperate with
    anyone, a strategy that is likely to ensure their survival
    for the moment but will continue to erode what little
    influence they may still have.  End Summary.

    FUNCINPEC's Survival:  Exceeding their Low Expectations
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶2.  (SBU) FUNCINPEC had fared better since Ranariddh's
    departure than Rasmey had expected, the FUNCINPEC President
    said, admitting that at one point he feared the party would
    not survive.  He claimed that Ranariddh has been the real
    loser from the split, attracting fewer than half of the
    FUNCINPEC base.  (Comment:  This claim comes despite the NRP
    outperforming FUNCINPEC in the April 1, 2007 commune council
    election, and represents a significant lowering of
    aspirations from Rasmey's pre-election posture.  End
    Comment.)  Moreover, Rasmey rebutted speculation that
    Ranariddh's continued absence from Cambodia had hurt the
    NRP's performance in the election, instead asserting that it
    may have actually helped by generating sympathy for the
    embattled leader who faces an 18-month prison term at home.
    In the 2008 national elections, whenRanariddh has either
    returned from self-imposed exile or his absence is old news,
    the NRP will lose those sympathy votes and FUNCINPEC is
    likely to fare even better, Rasmey suggested.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Rasmey said he was proud of FUNCINPEC's policy
    achievements over the years, but admitted that the party had
    failed to translate these accomplishments into voter support.
     He noted that being in a coalition with the ruling CPP has
    put them in a difficult position, as FUNCINPEC can neither
    effectively claim credit for government successes (which the
    CPP publicizes as their own) nor criticize their partner
    party's shortcomings.  To address this dilemma, FUNCINPEC
    will strive to differentiate itself from the CPP without
    actually publicly opposing the party.  FUNCINPEC's 2008
    political platform will be based on the notion of
    "progressive monarchy", Rasmey said, explaining that this
    would mean support for democracy and human rights as well as
    maintaining the monarchy.  The party will concentrate its
    political efforts in 15 of Cambodia's most populous provinces.

    Rapprochement with Ranariddh Possible
    --------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) Rasmey and his FUNCINPEC colleagues appeared to
    have mixed feelings about Ranariddh, delighting in
    disparaging his self-importance and recounting unflattering
    stories about the prince while simultaneously admiring his
    charisma and emotional appeal to voters.  The FUNCINPEC
    leaders expressed confidence that their party could survive
    without Ranariddh and claimed unconvincingly that they, not
    the NRP, had momentum among royalist supporters.  Rasmey also
    said that lower-profile royals like Prince Thomico and
    Ranariddh advisors Ok Socheat and Noranarith Anandyath had
    indicated their willingness to re-join FUNCINPEC.  (Note:
    Prince Thomico publicly announced his move to FUNCINPEC on
    July 2.  End Note.)

    ¶5.  (SBU) "Sometimes one plus one equals three or four,"
    Rasmey observed, indicating that if the NRP and FUNCINPEC
    were to re-join forces, they might attract a new group of
    supporters disenchanted with other parties.  Rasmey gave
    contradictory messages about how eager the party was to
    reunite with Ranariddh, at one point claiming that he was "in
    no rush to talk to Ranariddh" but would be open to discussing
    reunification if Ranariddh approached them first.

    ¶6.  (SBU) However, Rasmey later allowed that he had traveled
    to Kuala Lumpur to meet with the prince after the April 1
    elections, a trip for which he had secured the Prime
    Minister's blessing in advance.  Ultimately, Rasmey and
    Ranariddh failed to meet because they could not establish in
    advance the circumstances under which Ranariddh might return
    to the party.  Ranariddh insisted that FUNCINPEC must agree
    to three conditions:  convincing the government to drop its
    arrest warrant against him so that he could return to
    Cambodia, the reunited FUNCINPEC operating without internal

    PHNOM PENH 00000904  002 OF 002

    divisions, and reinstating Ranariddh as party leader.  Rasmey
    stated he had no problem with the first two conditions, but
    that the last condition was hard to accept as FUNCINPEC was
    not comfortable with Ranariddh in any role more visible or
    powerful than the "historical president" position they had
    offered him several months ago.  (Comment:  It seemed to us
    that their insistence that Ranariddh return to the symbolic
    but powerless post of "historical president" all but
    guarantees he will not return to the fold.  However, the
    FUNCINPEC representatives insisted Ranariddh had not
    discounted this possibility.  End Comment.)

    ¶7.  (SBU) In a separate conversation with Poloff on July 3,
    Ky Lum Ang, FUNCINPEC Deputy Undersecretary for Political
    Affairs, said that the deal with Prince Thomico and Ok
    Socheat had been approved but that FUNCINPEC's Steering
    Committee was still reviewing what exact positions to offer
    the two NRP defectors.  She held out no hope that Thomico
    would be able to act as a bridge to Ranariddh and likened
    FUNCINPEC to a dysfunctional family after the parents had
    divorced.  Her personal assessment was that FUNCINPEC was now
    "falling" and that all of its accomplishments over the years
    will have been for nought unless a reunion with Ranariddh can
    be fashioned.  That, she said, depended on the proud
    Ranariddh coming back to the table in negotiations she
    labeled as "ongoing."

    FUNCINPEC Open to Coalition with CPP
    ------------------------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) When asked to comment on speculation that FUNCINPEC
    exists because the Prime Minister allows it to exist, Rasmey
    seemed to suggest that he realized his party could not
    function without some sort of tacit blessing from the PM.
    Rasmey confided that he was open to continuing FUNCINPEC's
    coalition with the CPP after the next election, noting that a
    reunited FUNCINPEC could be an effective coalition partner
    for the CPP.  Rasmey had in fact already discussed the
    possibility of a new coalition with Hun Sen, he said, and the
    Prime Minister reportedly said he would be willing to partner
    again with FUNCINPEC as long as the party did not exacerbate
    divisions within the CPP.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶9.  (SBU) FUNCINPEC's leaders articulate no clear sense of
    how to guide their party and seem to hope that FUNCINPEC's
    former glory and their willingness to form alliances with
    anyone will ensure their survival.  The party seems least
    interested in joining a grand coalition of opposition forces.
     FUNCINPEC's purported platform of "progressive monarchy"
    fails to distinguish it from any of the other opposition
    parties, who all support greater political freedoms and
    maintaining the monarchy.  Moreover, in Cambodia's
    personality-driven politics, FUNCINPEC's bland leaders have
    nothing to offer voters.  Given the party's lack of
    ideological backbone and apparent willingness to partner with
    anyone who asks, the party is likely to survive for a while
    longer, fading slowly, but never gaining any real influence
    or power.  End Comment.
    MUSSOMELI

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