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### Viewing cable 08BOGOTA905, COLOMBIA CONFLICT UPDATE FOR SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BOGOTA905 | 2008-03-06 23:29 | 2011-04-29 00:00 | SECRET | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.semana.com/wikileaks/Seccion/168.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0040
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #0905/01 0662329
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    R 062329Z MAR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1817
    INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0062
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 5987
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 1356
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6639
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4324
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP ADMIN/CHAIRS//

` `

    id: 144651
    date: 3/6/2008 23:29
    refid: 08BOGOTA905
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: SECRET
    destination: 07BOGOTA3096|07BOGOTA5002|07BOGOTA7453|07BOGOTA7625|07BOGOTA8091
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0040
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #0905/01 0662329
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    R 062329Z MAR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1817
    INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0062
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 5987
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 1356
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6639
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4324
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP ADMIN/CHAIRS//

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    S E C R E T BOGOTA 000905

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/06/2018
    TAGS: PREL PTER MARR PGOV CO
    SUBJECT: COLOMBIA CONFLICT UPDATE FOR SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER
    2007

    REF: A. 07 BOGOTA 3096
         ¶B. 07 BOGOTA 5002
         ¶C. 07 BOGOTA 7625
         ¶D. 07 BOGOTA 7453
         ¶E. 07 BOGOTA 8091

    Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer
    Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (S)  The military killed two key FARC commanders in the
    September-December period, prompting desertions from the
    16th and 37th fronts.  The FARC continued to move forces from
    the eastern Macarena in Meta to parts of Tolima -Valle zone,
    leading some analysts to speculate that it is withdrawing
    some elite units to the central mountains to escape heavy
    military pressure.  An increase in FARC terrorist attacks
    suggested a possible escalation in terrorism to offset its
    declining military capabilities.  The ELN cooperated with the
    FARC and other illegal armed groups, as each front struggled
    to fund and safeguard itself through local alliances. Still,
    the FARC and ELN continued to fight each other in Arauca. END
    SUMMARY.

    --------------------------------------------- -------
    DECAPITATION, THEN DISINTEGRATION OF KEY FARC FRONTS
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶2. (S) Colombian military takedowns of FARC front commanders
    aka "Negro Acacio" and "Martin Caballero" (Refs D, E) led to
    the collapse of the 16th and 37th Fronts.  Acacio's death on
    September 1 triggered mass desertions of his forces, gutting
    the 16th front in Vichada.  Acacio's successor was covertly
    negotiating his surrender with the Army.  One source
    estimated drug revenues of the FARC's core Eastern Bloc
    shrank from $800,000 per month under Acacio to $200,000 after
    his death.  FARC leaders told remaining 16th front fighters
    to break into small units and retreat to remote areas to
    evade GOC forces.  The 37th front in Bolivar received similar
    orders. After sustained military and police operations
    against its fighters and militias led to Caballero's death on
    October 24, the front shift south to alleviate the military
    pressure.

    ¶3. (S)  Colombian successes against FARC front commanders and
    the resulting desertions yielded new tactical intelligence,
    generating a steady stream of new strike targets.  At the
    current pace, desertions will set a record in 2008.
    Significantly, recent desertions include FARC veterans of 10
    or more years.  Some are demoralized by food and supply
    shortages; others alienated by abusive leaders or
    disillusioned by the loss of a revolutionary ethos.  GOC
    targeting of FARC mid-level commanders and rank-and file with
    rewards programs is also paying off.  In the FARC's
    heartland, the military is locating and destroying
    substantial arms and supply caches, thanks to tips from tired
    and hungry deserters seeking GOC payouts.  The snowball
    effect of leadership takedowns, desertions, and fresh
    tactical intelligence is likely to unravel more fronts in
    ¶2008.

    --------------------------------
    FARC FORCES' SHIFT TO THE CENTER
    --------------------------------

    ¶4. (S)  The FARC continued to concentrate forces in a zone
    extending from Meta in the east, across the central ranges of
    Tolima / Huila, to Cali and Buenaventura in the west.
    Seventy percent of its fighters were located in this
    east-west oval, with the outer ends struggling to fulfill
    leaders' logistics needs.  Some analysts speculated that 1300
    elite fighters of the Eastern Bloc located in the western end
    of La Macarena (Meta) are moving west into the central
    mountains to escape military pressure. The steep terrain in
    Tolima provides the FARC with a natural fortress.  Such a
    retreat would signal its inability to maintain its presence
    in the key Macarena region due to sustained  military
    pressure from Joint Task Force Omega.  To the west of Tolima

    are strategic corridors through Florida and Pradeira (Valle)
    -- where the FARC seeks a demilitarized zone (despeje) -- and
    to Cali and Buenaventura.  FARC terrorist actions centered on
    these cities and nearby Neiva (Huila).  The Eastern Bloc also
    lost its financial prominence, with drug income now centered
    in the west.

    ------------------------------------
    FARC POLITICAL vs. MILITARY TENSIONS
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5. (S)  The Secretariat maintained overall command, but the
    growing military pressure disrupted its internal
    communications as well as command and control over individual
    fronts.  Some analysts speculated that the FARC's military
    wing led by aka Mono Jojoy might be losing ground to more
    "political" leaders such as aka Alfonso Cano as the FARC
    continues to cede territory to the GOC, suffer supply and
    cash flows shortages, and lose experienced commanders.  Cano
    and other "political" leaders stress the need to complement
    military action with political activities, including the
    creation of Marxist cells ('Bolivarian militias') to
    infiltrate local government institutions, cultivation of ties
    to Venezuelan President Chavez, and diplomatic outreach to
    other European and Latin countries.

    ---------------------------------
    FARC TERRORIST ATTACKS MAY SPIKE?
    ---------------------------------

    ¶6. (S)  Recent attacks suggest the FARC may return to
    high-profile terrorism to offset its declining conventional
    capacity.  On December 30, the Teofilo Forero Mobile Column
    (TFMC) responsible for past headline terrorist acts fired a
    rocket (unsuccessfully) at a Colombian Hercules C-130
    aircraft carrying 50 soldiers on the runway in Neiva (Huila),
    only days after it made a fourth attempt to assassinate the
    city's outgoing mayor.  Earlier in December, police foiled a
    TFMC plot to kidnap President Uribe's sons.  Some military
    analysts speculated the FARC might resort to new attacks
    against military, government, and infrastructure targets to
    reassert its relevance.  While the prevailing assumption had
    been that the FARC would hunker down to 2010 to wait out
    President Uribe's term, the possibility that its
    disintegration had reached an unsustainable rate could prompt
    an escalation.  A successful hit against a GOC aircraft, in
    particular, could radically change the war's dynamic in the
    FARC's favor.

    ------------------------------------------
    ELN: GANGING UP WITH FARC, CRIMINAL GROUPS
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C)  The ELN increasingly cooperated with the FARC and
    other illegal armed groups, as individual ELN fronts
    struggled to fund and safeguard themselves through local
    alliances.  ELN and FARC jointly attacked an Army base in
    Bolivar with bombs and grenades.  In Catatumbo, the FARC
    remained on the sidelines, preferring to leave combat against
    the military to the ELN.  In contrast, the FARC and ELN
    continued to clash, with ELN frequently winning due to
    simultaneous military pressure against the FARC.  In Narino,
    the ELN worked with new criminal groups such as the Rastrojos
    and the Organization Nueva Generacion (ONG) to compete with
    the FARC for control of drug traffic.  These alliances were
    transaction-driven, and varied from locality to locality.

    Brownfield

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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