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### Viewing cable 06TELAVIV2879, MOSSAD CHIEF DAGAN ON LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06TELAVIV2879 | 2006-07-24 15:21 | 2011-03-15 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tel Aviv
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    null
    Carol X Weakley  07/27/2006 01:03:02 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Carol X Weakley

    Cable
    Text:

    C O N F I D E N T I A L        TEL AVIV 02879

    SIPDIS
    CXTelA:
        ACTION: POL
        INFO:   IPSC PD AID ADM IMO RES ECON RSO CONS DCM DAO
                AMB

    DISSEMINATION: POL
    CHARGE: PROG

    APPROVED: AMB:JONES
    DRAFTED: CONS:BAHURST
    CLEARED: POL:NOLSEN

    VZCZCTVI903
    OO RUEHC RUEHXK RUEAIIA
    DE RUEHTV #2879/01 2051521
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 241521Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5144
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002879

    SIPDIS

    CODEL

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2016
    TAGS: PREL PINR PTER KPAL KWBG IS LE
    SUBJECT: MOSSAD CHIEF DAGAN ON LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN

    Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons: 1.4 (b and d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Mossad Director Meir Dagan briefed CODEL
    Hoekstra on the Israeli campaign against Hizballah and the
    greater long term threat posed by Iran. Dagan stated that
    the initial aims of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon were
    focused on eliminating strategic weapons held by Hizballah
    and symbolically striking the organization,s heart. The
    current phase is to hit local units in South Lebanon that are
    responsible for the firing of Katyusha rockets into Northern
    Israel. Dagan said that the GOI is sensitive to the impact
    on civilians, and that only Hizballah-controlled areas are
    being targeted. Dagan also discussed Iran and its nuclear
    program. He described it as the number one threat to
    regional stability and laid out a strategy with which to
    confront Iran. END SUMMARY

    --------------------------
    CURRENT STATE OF CONFLICT
    --------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Dagan stated that the primary objective during the
    first phase of the conflict was to eliminate the threat posed
    by Hizballah,s long and medium range missiles, which he
    asserted are supplied by Iran and Syria. He went on to say
    that these weapons have a range of at least 225km and are
    primarily stored around Beirut, and if they were to be
    deployed south of Sidon, all major Israeli cities except
    Eilat would be in range. The initial campaign focused on
    known storage sites and cutting North-South transportation
    links, including all major roads and bridges, as well as
    routes between Lebanon and Syria. Dagan estimated that
    35-40% of Hizballah,s long-range capability has been
    destroyed. Dagan also emphasized that the use of these
    missiles by Hizballah must be directly authorized by Tehran.

    ¶3. (C) Dagan continued by pointing out that another early
    objective in the conflict was to target Hizballah command and
    control centers to strike a symbolic blow at the
    organization,s heart. He stated that Hizballah leadership,
    including Hasan Nassrallah, are legitimate targets, but that,
    it is extremely difficult to locate individuals hiding among
    supporters within the civilian population. The current phase
    of the conflict has expanded to targeting local units in
    southern Lebanon responsible for firing the short and
    longer-range Katyusha rockets into northern Israel.

    ¶4. (C) Dagan stated that there is sensitivity within the GOI
    for the impact of the campaign on civilians in Lebanon. He
    made it a point to stress several times that only areas where
    Hizballah is active are being struck. Contrary to what is on
    the news, he claimed, that northern Lebanon is peaceful and
    non-Shia areas of Beirut are not targets. In response to
    questions from the CODEL, Dagan said the strike on the
    airport was justified and that runways are easily repaired,
    however, in his opinion the strategic value of the strike on
    the fuel depot may not have been worth the propaganda cost.

    ¶5. (C) Dagan expressed concern over the battle for public
    opinion. In response to a question, he said it was a goal of
    the incursions to be able to publicly show how Hizballah has
    embedded itself in the civilian population and is using
    private homes to store weapons and rocket launch sites. He
    went on to say that Al-Jazeera is shaping the propaganda war
    and pursing an anti-Israeli and anti-American agenda. Dagan
    said that Lebanon will need a tremendous amount of support to
    rebuild and that it is critical that Iran and Syria not be
    allowed to contribute lest they increase their own and
    Hizballah,s influence.

    ----------------------------------
    Syria, Iran and Lebanese Politics
    ----------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) Dagan said that the primary supporters of Hizballah
    are not Lebanese, but rather are the governments of Syria and
    Iran who are pursuing their own agendas. Syria desires to
    control every aspect of Lebanese society and needs an armed
    body to exert its influence. This has allowed Syria until
    recently to control political appointments such as that of
    President Emile Lahud and reap economic benefits such as
    construction contracts that provided the largest source of
    foreign currency for the Assad government. According to
    Dagan, Iran is using Hizballah to project its power into the
    Shia community for two reasons: (1) To spread the regime,s
    ideology and have a Shia-dominated state (as is their goal in
    Iraq) and (2) To create leverage over Israel by funneling
    money through Hizballah to the Palestinian Territories to
    derail the peace process and prevent Israel from interfering
    with Tehran,s nuclear program.

    ¶7. (C) Dagan said he is optimistic about the political future
    of Lebanon if Hizballah can be neutralized. He said that
    factors working in Lebanon,s favor are having the Christian
    community unified around Cardinal Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir,
    the Druze community around Walid Jumblatt, the Sunnis with
    Prime Minister Siniora and MP Sa'ad Haririand the Shia being
    split with an important segment firmly against Hizballah.
    When asked about Michel Aoun making a common cause pact with
    Hizballah, Dagan said that Aoun wants to be president and it
    is like making a pact with the devil to further his political
    ambition. Dagan emphasized that Hizballah can not/not be
    allowed to emerge from the conflict being seen as a winner by
    any measure.

    ¶8. (C) Dagan assured the CODEL that Israel has no intention
    of occupying Southern Lebanon. The objective of the conflict
    is simple: (1) Free the captured soldiers and (2) See the
    implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1559.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    Iran,s Nuclear Program and Regional Stability
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶9. (C) Dagan discussed Iran at length and stated that Tehran
    will not stop in its attempt to develop a nuclear weapon.
    For Israel it is a question of survival, with the threatening
    comments made by Khameini and Ahmedinejad reflecting the
    regime,s core philosophy towards Israel. Iran has already
    developed the Shihab-3 missile with a range of 1,500 km,
    putting every Israeli city in reach. Dagan said that Iran,s
    plan to eventually utilize 54,000 centrifuges for uranium
    enrichment could only be for military purposes. The arms
    race that Tehran is starting will have regional implications,
    he said, especially among Sunni-Arab States, such as Egypt
    and Saudi Arabia, that are already concerned about Iran's
    projection of power.

    ¶10. (C) Dagan said that the criticism of Hizballah by Egypt,
    Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are a reflection of
    the uneasiness caused by Iran. Dagan went on to explain that
    Iran is engaged in trying to increase its influence among
    Shias in Bahrain, organizing a Hizballah party in Kuwait and
    funding armed groups in Yemen, besides the well-known
    activities amongst the Shia in Iraq.

    ¶11. (C) Dagan said it is wrong to ask when will Iran have the
    bomb, but rather when can we stop Iran from acquiring the
    bomb, and he said now is the right time. He laid out a
    strategy for dealing with Iran that included:

    ¶1. Mount political pressure by bringing Iran to the UN
    Security Council and asking for sanctions that would be
    painful for the regime.

    ¶2. Prevent technology and knowledge transfer to Iran.

    ¶3. Encourage indigenous opposition groups that favor
    democracy within Iran.

    ¶12. (C) While not counting on internal disruptions derailing
    the regime, Dagan did point to some positives including
    wide-spread dissatisfaction among large ethnic communities
    including the Azeris, Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs. As Persians
    make up less than 50% of the population in Iran, Dagan said
    that internal frictions between ethnic communities could
    become a destabilizing factor within the country. Dagan said
    that these ethnic groups could form the basis for a domestic
    opposition and then Tehran could get a taste of its own
    medicine. To be successful, however, the opposition needs to
    be organized, and have a unified, inspirational leadership.
    Both of these aspects are missing. Dagan also said that the
    regime is not stupid, and if it senses internal disorder it
    will allocate resources to take care of the problem. Despite
    this, Dagan said, he believes that if this strategy is
    followed, then Tehran will be forced to carefully weigh where
    to invest its resources.

    ¶13. (U) Besids the House Intellegence Committe Chairman Peter
    Hoekstra, the CODEL consisted of Representatives Jane Harman,
    Rick Renzi and Darrell Issa, all members of the House
    Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. The CODEL did
    not have an opportunity to clear this message before
    departing post.

    ********************************************* ********************
    Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

    You can also access this site through the State Department's
    Classified SIPRNET website.
    ********************************************* ********************
    JONES

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