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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON284, NEW ZEALAND ELECTION DATE 2005: NOT NOW, I'M

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON284 | 2005-04-06 04:04 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000284

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EAP/ANP
    NSC FOR JONES, CHA

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
    SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND ELECTION DATE 2005: NOT NOW, I'M
    WATCHING THE RUGBY

    REF: WELLINGTON 70

    Classified By: ACTING DCM KATHERINE HADDA, FOR REASONS 1.4(B,D)

     ¶1.  (U) Summary: New Zealand's Labour Government is nearing
    the end of its three-year term and speculation is rife among
    the media and policymakers over the yet-to-be-determined
    election date. Many pundits believe Labour will call
    elections early, both in order to throw off the opposition's
    ability to mount an effective campaign and to guard against
    possible negative voter reaction if there is an economic
    downturn or other unforeseen controversy.  Prime Minister
    Clark has indicated that the Party will go "full term," but
    even this could include any date between the Government's
    three-year anniversary in late July and September 24, the
    last Saturday before the September 27 cut-off date mandated
    under NZ's election law (reftel). Factors such as the winter
    rugby schedule, the release of the budget and the Cabinet's
    international political commitments will help determine the
    date. Regardless of the specifics, both Labour and the
    opposition are trying to use the public's increasing focus on
    election timing to highlight their parties' agendas. End
    summary.

    Regulations
    -----------

    ¶2. (U) Under NZ's electoral system, the Prime Minister
    decides on which date an election will be held.  The
    Governor-General then dissolves Parliament by proclamation,
    and issues a second proclamation summoning Parliament to meet
    again several weeks after the election, although they are not
    bound to actually meet on that date.  On what is known as
    Writ Day the Governor-General tells the Chief Electoral
    Officer to hold a general election, and polling is scheduled
    to occur on a Saturday, 20-27 days after nomination day.
    The day on which individual constituency candidate and party
    list nominations close is declared Nomination Day.  In 2002,
    PM Clark announced the election on June 11, writ day was June
    25, July 2 was nomination day and the election was held on
    July 27, 2002.

    Why Wait? Timing Is Everything
    ------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Incumbent politicians have historically been penalized
    for calling an early or snap election, and indications are
    that PM Clark wishes to go "full-term," or between July and
    September.  Ultimately, the decision on timing is Clark's
    alone, and according to members of her staff she has not yet
    chosen a date. Cabinet Ministers Marian Hobbs and Chris
    Carter independently expressed to us their doubts over an
    early election, questioning how Labour could justify the
    decision to voters in the absence of any outside influence.
    They seem to believe such justification is needed in order to
    avoid voter perception that the Government is manipulating
    the process by holding elections when Labour's star is at its
    highest.  Labour currently maintains a comfortable ten point
    polling lead over the Opposition National Party, and our
    contacts argue that there are no indications that their
    party's fortunes will change within the next six months.  In
    addition, the Government's budget will be released on May
    19th and its advertising campaign regarding its milestone
    "Working For Families" social welfare package is scheduled to
    peak in August.  A late (Antipodean) winter election would
    assure Labour that publicity surrounding these financial
    packages impacts the maximum number of voters.

    ¶4. (C) The PM's Chief Press Spokesman, Mike Munro, also
    downplayed to us the likelihood of an early election.  "It
    will be some time between July and September, so what's the
    fuss all about?" he said.  Munro added that he did not really
    blame the media for hyping the issue, as the election is
    their biggest story of the year.

    ¶5. (U)  Some have seen Labour's  March release of its list of
    party candidates as a sign of an early election, but Labour
    delegates at the Party Congress insisted to us that the
    timing was designed to prevent candidates from focusing on
    their own possible list ranking instead of campaigning for
    the overall party vote.  (Note: The higher the candidate's
    name is on the list, the more likely her or she is to gain a
    seat in Parliament. (reftel))  A number of political parties
    in New Zealand have yet to finalize their Party Lists for the
    upcoming election.  National expects to complete its list in
    June, as do the Greens.

    ¶6.  (C) National Party leader Don Brash has publicly cited
    the early election buzz as proof that the Government is
    panicky over a worsening economic situation. (Brash, National
    Foreign Affairs Spokesman Lockwood Smith, and Welfare
    Spokesman Judith Collins have in the past all told us that it
    will be much harder for National to gain votes if the economy
    is doing well.  It's not surprising, therefore, that they
    will use any chance they can to highlight any weakness in the
    system.)  Brash has also used the media's interest in the
    election date to emphasize his party's readiness, publicizing
    National's strong party membership numbers, and point out
    that candidates have been selected in all 62 general
    electorates.  On Party policy, Brash noted that National is
    waiting to "see the shape of the Labour Government's Budget
    on May 19," but indicated that most policy development has
    been completed though not yet revealed.

    Can't Vote Now- The Footy's On
    ------------------------------

    ¶6. (U) While often referred to jokingly by policymakers, with
    NZ elections held on Saturdays the winter rugby season is a
    major determinant in scheduling an election.  The British
    Lions rugby team will be playing heavily attended matches in
    NZ each weekend in June and early July.  These games are not
    only a distraction from any political campaigning, but
    involve the movement of thousands of voters from their voting
    districts.  August is similarly "full of footy" with
    Tri-Nations matches with Australia and South Africa serving
    as a source of great nationalism, and distracting from
    election year campaigning.

    ¶7.  (C) Beyond football, PM Clark's foreign commitments may
    disrupt the September options.  A United Nations Head of
    State or Government meeting in New York September 13 ) 16 is
    a powerful draw for Clark, especially as she has in the past
    expressed a desire to follow her NZ career with a
    high-profile UN position.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶7. (C) While speculation is seen by some as a sport to while
    away the hours, Labour is approaching this election with
    great gravity, as noted in this part weekend's Labour Party
    Congress in Wellington.  Complacency was derided by the PM,
    along with its "twin sister ) arrogance."  No Labour party
    has won a third term since the First Labour Government
    (1935-1949,) and economic indicators are increasingly
    pointing to a slowdown at the end of 2005.  Finance Minister
    Michael Cullen, in talks at the Party Congress, repeatedly
    emphasized the impact an economic slowdown would have on
    Labour's ability to implement social policy.  Labour is not
    taking anything for granted, and is weighing a number of
    factors in choosing a date that will optimize its polling
    advantage without allowing the Opposition time to mount a
    sustained attack.  Whatever the date, media focus on this
    issue is a bellwether for increased voter awareness of
    election issues.
    Burnett

`