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### Viewing cable 05HALIFAX258, ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE 2005 FEDERAL ELECTION: NO SEISMIC

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05HALIFAX258 | 2005-11-30 18:06 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Halifax

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    301846Z Nov 05

` `

    UNCLAS HALIFAX 000258

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    FOR WHA/CAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE 2005 FEDERAL ELECTION: NO SEISMIC
    SHIFTS PREDICTED

    REF: HALIFAX 256

    THIS CABLE REPEATS THE TEXT OF REFTEL FOR THOSE POSTS WHICH DID
    NOT RECEIVE IT WHEN FIRST SENT.

    ¶1.  Summary:  With a federal election now called for January 23,
    our contacts see little change occurring in the Liberals' hold
    on most of Atlantic Canada's 32 Parliamentary seats.  The U.S.
    and bilateral issues likely will not be major factors in the
    campaign.  End Summary

    ¶2.  Voters in Canada's Atlantic Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova
    Scotia, Newfoundland-Labrador and Prince Edward Island) are not
    expecting to see much change in the regional lineup after the
    January 23 federal election.  As the campaign starts to unfold,
    the Liberals will be looking to defend the 22 of the 32 seats
    they now have in the region, with the Conservatives seeking to
    add to the seven they have and the New Democrats hoping to pick
    off a falling Liberal or two to add to their current three
    seats.  A drastic change in seat allocation seems unlikely given
    that regional polls show the federal Liberal party is still the
    favorite among Atlantic Canadians, followed by the
    Conservatives, and with the NDP in third place.  As with the
    2004 campaign, voters are still wary of Stephen Harper and the
    Conservatives, viewing them as too closed-minded and too focused
    on western Canada, both perceived being to the detriment of the
    Atlantic region.  The NDP continues to be viewed as the
    traditional third party, and one which still needs to work on
    establishing a presence in many constituencies throughout the
    region.

    ¶3.  Key issues for the region, as always, will be the economy
    and jobs.  Management of the fishery will be a factor in
    Newfoundland-Labrador.  National unity has also been mentioned
    by some of our contacts as a potential issue, since the prospect
    of the Bloc Quebecois taking even more Quebec seats tends to
    reinforce Atlantic Canadian feelings of isolation.  Other than
    routine shots about the rise of "American style" anything --
    campaigns, health care, you name it -- we do not at this point
    see the U.S. or bilateral issues as major factors in races in
    this part of the country.

    ¶4.  Despite the sentiment that there will be little change in
    the configuration of the 32 seats after January 23, there are
    some interesting contests starting up.  In Nova Scotia, there
    will be lots of attention on the Halifax riding to see whether
    the Liberals can come up with a strong contender to go up
    against the >Mn"qn easy task given that prevailing sentiment is
    that the seat is Alexa's to keep.  Over in New Brunswick the
    campaign there seems to be more exciting given a long-standing
    tiff between the federal Liberal MPs and Conservative Premier
    Bernard Lord over federal funding for several projects.
    Observers say the squabble could spill over into the election
    campaign.  Some Conservative strategists believe these bad
    feelings could topple at least two Liberal MPs including Indian
    and Northern Affairs minister Andy Scott.  Prince Edward Island
    is looking like it will keep its same four Liberals although the
    Conservatives believe they might stand a chance of knocking off
    Charlottetown's Shawn Murphy who represents PEI in the Martin
    government.  (In a strange alignment of duties, PEI MP Joe
    McGuire, the minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada
    Opportunity Agency, is not responsible for the province, Murphy
    is.)  In Newfoundland-Labrador there are no indications that
    much will change in the configuration of that province's seven
    seats.  The Liberals are expecting to hold their current five,
    but the Conservatives are hoping that the retirement of Cabinet
    Minister John Efford will open the door for them to add his
    Avalon riding to their total.

    ¶5. Comment:  At this stepping off point the pundits see little
    change in Atlantic Canada's MP lineup following the January 23
    election.  However, there is always the cautionary note that a
    lot of things can happen in the next two months.  The parties
    all view the region as an important battleground with each seat
    vitally important. Consequently, we can expect to see lots of
    attention on key ridings where a relatively few votes will make
    a difference.  One regional columnist, with a cynical viewpoint,
    remarked that the voters here "will be wooed obscenely as long
    as there is the possibility that the region's help will be
    needed to form a government."  Recent federal spending
    announcements for the region have been flowing freely,
    indicating that the wooing has already started.  End comment.
    HILL

`