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### Viewing cable 05TELAVIV4107, MOSSAD CHIEF ON WEAKNESS OF SYRIA, PREDICTS NO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05TELAVIV4107 | 2005-06-29 13:01 | 2011-04-08 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Tel Aviv

Appears in these articles:
Yedioth
Ahronot
only
goes
out
in
print

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    "C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 004107

    SIPDIS

    NEA FOR WELCH, CHENEY/DIBBLE, E.
    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2010
    TAGS: PREL PARM PGOV PTER MNUC IR SY IS GOI EXTERNAL
    SUBJECT: MOSSAD CHIEF ON WEAKNESS OF SYRIA, PREDICTS NO
    CHANGE IN IRAN

    Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary: Mossad Chief Meir Dagan told NEA A/S David
    Welch, Deputy National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams, and
    the Ambassador June 17 that, despite the weakness of Syrian
    president Bashar al-Assad, he is unlikely to be replaced any
    time soon.  Syria,s neighbors prefer to keep Assad in power
    but weak, as Syria is then less likely to meddle in the
    affairs of its neighbors.  On Iran, Dagan predicted that
    former president Rafsanjani will win the elections, but that
    little will change in Iran regardless: Iran will continue to
    seek even incremental escape from its suspension agreement
    with the EU-3.  Dagan said he thought a UN Security Council
    resolution codifying the EU-3 agreement would provide a
    better mechanism for taking action against constant low-level
    Iranian violations.  End Summary.

    -----------------------
    Syria -- Bashar Is Weak
    -----------------------

    ¶2.  (C) In a meeting with visiting NEA A/S David Welch,
    Deputy National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams, and the
    Ambassador June 17, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan said that Syrian
    President Bashar al-Assad is very weak.  Despite having built
    up an atmosphere of what Dagan called ""dramatic political
    change,"" after the recent Ba'ath Party Congress, it became
    clear that ""nothing in Syria is changing.""  That being said,
    Dagan continued, there are now liberal elements willing to
    risk demonstrations against the government.  Discussion of
    the return of Rifat al-Assad, and graffiti in Syria
    proclaiming his return, are both signs that Bashar is
    becoming weaker.  The process of removing the old guard in
    Syria continues, Dagan said, but reiterated his initial point
    that even that does not signify any genuine change.

    ¶3.  (C) Despite Bashar's weakness, Dagan did not predict that
    he would be driven from power any time soon.  If a leadership
    change were to occur at some future point, Dagan and his team
    predicted that any successor would come from within the
    elites: ""there are no dark horse candidates out there.""
    Neighboring countries have a genuine fear that radicals could
    replace Bashar in Syria; there is a widespread and strong
    preference for a weak -- but present -- Bashar al-Assad.  If
    an acceptable alternative were to present himself, that
    equation, however, might change.  The most important thing to
    the Syrian elites remains the continued control of the
    Allawites on power.

    ¶4.  (C) Asked how Syria views the United States, Dagan said
    that the Syrians ""take your politeness as compromise.""
    Syria, in Dagan's view, will be less inclined to meddle in
    the affairs of its neighbors if a weakened Bashar al-Assad
    remains in place.  On the other hand, weakness in Syria means
    that Syria will be unable to control the Syria-Iraq border.
    Change in Syria will also have negative consequences in
    Lebanon, Dagan predicted.

    -----------------
    Iran -- No Change
    -----------------

    ¶5.  (C) Dagan and his team said they were assuming that
    former president Rafsanjani would be re-elected in Iran, even
    if the voting necessitated going to a second round.  As
    president, Dagan predicted that Rafsanjani would espouse the
    same tough ideas as his predecessors, but with ""better
    packaging.""  Ayatollah Khamenei still remains very much on
    the scene, Dagan pointed out, further evidence that the
    presidential elections will not signify substantive policy
    change.

    ¶6.  (C) Dagan asserted that Iran will continue the same
    policy regarding Iraq, hoping to see the Shi'a gain real
    power there through elections.  Dagan predicted that Iran's
    nuclear policy would also remain the same, as would their
    policies towards Hizballah.  Mossad had at last discovered
    how Iran Hizballah is moving money to Palestinian Islamic
    Jihad (PIJ), Dagan said, having actually seen Iranian agents
    hand over the cash to PIJ operatives.  Iran has in the past
    proven that it can rein in Hizballah when it suits them.

    ¶7.  (C) Dagan said that Iran is very susceptible to, and
    should ""always remain under, constant pressure.""  As an
    example, Dagan said that European pressure had actually
    delayed work in the Kashan nuclear site, with a number of
    workers having been transferred elsewhere.  DNSA Abrams said
    that the U.S. opposes any compromises on Iran's nuclear
    program that might lead to Iran's development of the nuclear
    fuel cycle, and will press the Europeans to maintain a tough
    line.  Dagan said that Iran wants ""more than anything"" to
    break out of the suspension, and that even the ""tiniest
    compromise"" that leaves the door open for later discussion is
    sufficient.  DNSA Abrams agreed, adding that even a 100%
    suspension with the understanding that the suspension is
    voluntary would do, given Iran's incremental negotiating
    style.

    ¶8.  (C) Dagan said that Israel would like more IAEA
    safeguards imposed on Iran, using the safety checks as a
    vehicle for more inspections and tighter IAEA control.  A UN
    Security Council resolution that requires cessation of all
    prohibited activity would also be useful, as it would
    translate the EU-3 demands into binding form.  Dagan's staff
    asserted that there had already been sufficient violations of
    the EU-3 suspension agreement of IAEA requirements in the
    last five months to pave the way for a UNSC resolution.
    ¶9.  (U) A/S Welch and DNSA Abrams cleared this message.

    ********************************************* ********************
    Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

    You can also access this site through the State Department's
    Classified SIPRNET website.
    ********************************************* ********************
    KURTZER
    "

`