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### Viewing cable 09HELSINKI79, FINLAND: NEW DEFENSE POLICY INCHES TOWARD NATO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09HELSINKI79 | 2009-03-02 10:10 | 2011-04-24 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Helsinki

`

    VZCZCXRO6620
    RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHHE #0079/01 0611034
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 021034Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4844
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0969

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000079

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019
    TAGS: FI MARR PGOV PREL
    SUBJECT: FINLAND: NEW DEFENSE POLICY INCHES TOWARD NATO
    MEMBERSHIP

    Classified By: CDA Michael A. Butler for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 23 the Finnish Government (GoF)
    released its quadrennial defense security white paper.  It
    delayed release due to difficulty in arriving at a consensus
    on how to treat the question of Finland's possible NATO
    membership.  Some in the Cabinet sought stronger language
    favoring NATO membership, while others wished the paper to
    break no new ground. Prime Minister Vanhanen insisted on
    stronger language, and the paper describes NATO as "the most
    important military security cooperation organization."
    However, Vanhanen also ensured that the paper contains
    arguments against membership and strong language favoring
    security promotion through other organizations like the EU.
    Speaking February 4 before Parliament, President Halonen
    emphasized that the new policy does not change government
    policy and Finland continues to retain the option to join
    NATO.  Foreign Minister Stubb publicly stated that Finland
    will not pursue NATO membership during the current government
    (term ending 2011).  While the latest white paper gives
    something to NATO supporters and NATO skeptics, the
    supporters benefit more: With opposition to NATO membership
    slowly diminishing and the pro-NATO governing coalition
    member National Coalition Party (NCP) riding high in polls,
    the NCP's aspirations to shepherd Finland into NATO in the
    next government seem more realistic now than Prime Minister
    Vanhanen's prediction that Finland will not be a NATO member
    ten years from now.  END SUMMARY.

    NATO debate delays release of defense and security white paper
    --------------------------------------------- -----------------

    ¶2. (C) On January 23 the GoF released the latest version of
    its quadrennial defense and security white paper.  It delayed
    release in 2008, in part due to the challenge of addressing a
    swiftly changing security environment, including Russia's
    incursion into Georgia, but also to wrangling within the GoF
    about how to address possible NATO membership. While support
    for NATO membership crosses party lines in the four-party
    coalition government, it is strongest within the NCP.
    According to Jori Arvonen, advisor to Foreign Minister Stubb
    (NCP), some in the GoF sought a white paper that broke no new
    ground while others (in particular the NCP leadership)
    insisted it must address significant changes internationally
    since the last report.  Prime Minister Vanhanen, whose Center
    Party holds many NATO skeptics, agreed that the paper should
    contain stronger language regarding NATO.  However, in order
    to maintain consensus within a government not unified on the
    question of NATO membership, the paper includes arguments
    both for and against, plus language stressing the importance
    of working with and through other institutions, in particular
    the European Union.

    NATO membership: a "strong case" preserved and deferred
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶3. (U) The 2004 white paper described NATO as an organization
    of "key importance" for "transatlantic security policy and
    security cooperation" before somewhat blandly concluding that
    "applying for membership ... will remain a possibility ... in
    the future."  The 2009 white paper states NATO is "the most
    important military security cooperation organization." It
    also states that NATO's objectives, tasks and obligations are
    analogous with the foreign and security policy goals of
    Finland and the EU.  As FM Stubb pointed out upon the release
    of the report, the paper states that "there will continue to
    be a strong case for Finland's membership." Nevertheless,
    having weighted the alternatives - rejecting membership,
    pursuing it or maintaining the possibility - the GoF decided
    to preserve the option.

    ¶4. (U) In an interview following the release of the paper,
    Stubb said Finland would not apply for membership before the
    next parliamentary elections (2011).  In order to apply for
    membership, Stubb said the government and President must
    agree, and the public would also have to favor membership.
    Instead of pursuing NATO membership, Stubb said the GoF would
    focus on Nordic Defense Cooperation.

    Something for everyone
    ----------------------

    ¶5. (C) Following release of the report, a major weekly
    publication cast President Halonen, who has said Finland
    would not join NATO during her tenure (ending in 2012), as
    the loser in the internal struggle surrounding the paper's
    treatment of NATO.  However, this may mis-characterize the
    result, as PM Vanhanen, a scrupulous consensus-builder,
    ensured a carefully-worded report that gives something to
    everyone.  In a February 4 speech opening the new session of
    Parliament Halonen acknowledged that the paper addresses

    HELSINKI 00000079  002 OF 002

    NATO-related issues "more comprehensively" than before, but
    also emphasized a "clear agreement" within the government
    that the "report does not bring NATO membership any closer or
    push it further away, but it keeps (the option) just as much
    a possibility as it was before."   (COMMENT: Some Finns have
    shared with Emboffs their impression that Halonen has
    softened her stance on NATO, at least somewhat, likely due in
    part to the election of Barack Obama.  That softening may go
    far enough to permit a consensus on stronger language
    regarding NATO but not enough to apply for membership during
    her term.  END COMMENT.)  Also, in an interview, Tarja
    Cronberg - Employment and Economy Minister and head of
    coalition member Green Party - pointed to the paper's
    arguments against membership, and emphasized the importance
    placed on the EU and Nordic Defense Cooperation for Finland's
    security.

    ¶6. (C) NATO supporters, in particular the NCP leadership,
    welcome the stronger language as one step in reaching a
    broader public and political consensus on NATO membership.
    Acknowledging that a majority of Finns currently oppose
    membership, Arvonen pointed out to Polchief that the public
    is well aware of NCP's support for NATO membership, and yet
    the party's popularity is rising.  NCP currently tops opinion
    polls, and Arvonen told Polchief that its leadership sees the
    NCP leading the next government and taking Finland into NATO.
    (NOTE: A poll taken after the paper's release shows that
    while opposition to NATO membership remains over 50 percent,
    it is dropping: the gap between supporters and opponents
    shrank from over 50 percent to 26 percent in the last six
    years. END NOTE.)

    ¶7. (C) As for Vanhanen, the Prime Minister walks a fine line
    between NATO supporters and skeptics.  His own leanings on
    the question of NATO membership are unclear, but when asked
    by a newspaper after the paper's release to look ten years
    into Finland's future, among numerous other predictions he
    said that in 2019 Finland would not be a NATO member.  He
    offered no reason why Finland would not join NATO by then.
    Vanhanen's comment might reflect internal party politics than
    personal conviction, as the Center Party's popularity is
    slipping in polls, his own popularity within the Center Party
    is dwindling, and only twenty percent of his party's
    membership supports NATO membership.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. (C) Depending on with whom ones speaks, Finland is either
    moving towards NATO membership or standing in place.  Those
    claiming movement towards NATO currently have the stronger
    case.  Wide media coverage focused more on the "strong case"
    in favor of membership than on a multilateral security policy
    encompassing a number of international actors.  For public
    opinion, a decrease in opposition may be more important than
    an increase in support: In Finland a lack of public support
    will not prevent a government from acting, and public support
    often follows government policy, as seen when the GoF
    successfully pursued EU membership despite low support.
    Therefore, with opposition to NATO membership diminishing and
    the NCP riding high in polls (including NCP member Sauli
    Niinisto leading polls for the next presidential election),
    the NCP's aspirations to shepherd Finland into NATO in the
    next government seem more realistic now than Vanhanen's
    politically-motivated prediction for 2019.  (Post will
    address the paper's treatment of the U.S. septel.)  END
    COMMENT.
    BUTLER

`