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### Viewing cable 08MEXICO3108, MEXICANS DIFFER ON THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MEXICO3108 | 2008-10-20 22:10 | 2011-04-04 23:11 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/las-armas-mas-letales-llegan-al-narco-mexicano-desde-centroamerica-eu

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    VZCZCXRO9946
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT RUEHNG RUEHNL
    RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
    DE RUEHME #3108/01 2942204
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 202204Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3633
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

` `

    174485
    2008-10-20 22:04:00
    08MEXICO3108
    Embassy Mexico
    UNCLASSIFIED

    VZCZCXRO9946
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT RUEHNG RUEHNL
    RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
    DE RUEHME #3108/01 2942204
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 202204Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3633
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    TAGS: ELAB ECON SMIG SOCI PINR PGOV MX
    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 003108

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR DRL/AWH AND ILSCR, WHA/MEX, USDOL FOR ILAB

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ELAB ECON SMIG SOCI PINR PGOV MX
    SUBJECT: : MEXICANS DIFFER ON THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL
    CRISIS ON EMPLOYMENT, REMITTANCES AND MIGRATION
    ¶1.  Summary:  Mexican opinion makers, academics, legislators
    and government officials are expressing vastly different
    views with regard to the effect on Mexico of the ongoing US
    financial crisis.  Beyond the purely financial crisis, the
    areas of primary concern for Mexicans in this broader
    economic crisis are unemployment, the decline in remittances
    and possible reverse migration.  Almost everyone expressed
    concern over the significant drop in remittances from migrant
    workers in the United States.  Many opinion leaders and
    academics are concerned that this drop will increase poverty
    levels in Mexico.  They are also concerned about the negative
    impact on employment if the downturn in the US economy
    prompts large-scale reverse migration back to Mexico.  One of
    the main spokespeople for the GOM on employment, Secretary of
    Labor Javier Lozano, has suggested that only a limited number
    of migrants would return home.  He has assured the Mexican
    Congress and the public that these returnees could easily be
    accommodated within currently projected rates of job growth.
    The position of most legislators on the potential return of
    migrant workers seems largely determined by political party
    affiliation, with the  legislators in the ruling National
    Action Party (PAN) more or less supporting Lozano,s
    position.  Opposition legislators (and even Mexico,s Central
    Bank) are much less inclined to agree with Secretary
    Lozano,s somewhat optimistic position, at least with regard
    the country,s job growth projections. End Summary.

    &A COLD CAN LEAD TO PNUEMONIA8
    ------------------------------

    ¶2.  One of the most frequently repeated Mexican sayings
    regarding the complexity of US-Mexico economic relations
    states that when the United States catches a cold, Mexico
    gets pneumonia.  The truth of this saying is currently being
    discussed in many sectors of Mexican society as a broad range
    of opinion makers, labor organizations, academics,
    legislators and government official speculate about the
    affects on Mexico of the ongoing US financial crisis.  The
    main topics of concern are the drop in the level of
    remittances arriving from the U.S., the possibility of
    large-scale reverse migration and resulting unemployment.

    ¶3. Although there is a broad range of opinions on many
    aspects of how the US financial situation will ultimately
    affect Mexico, there is unanimous agreement on the fact that
    there has been a significant drop in the level of remittances
    arriving from Mexican migrant workers in the United States.
    The Bank of Mexico has cited a 12.2 percent drop during
    January-August 2008 compared with the same period in 2007.
    As is often the case, the figure cited on the drop in
    remittances varies significantly depending on the political
    orientation of the speaker.  The leader of the National
    Agricultural Workers Confederation (CNC), an affiliate of the
    PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), Mexico,s former
    ruling party, claims that some regions of the country have
    seen remittances drop by as much as 30 percent.

    INCREASE IN POVERTY RATES
    --------------------------
    ¶4.  The decrease in remittances has promoted calls for action
    in the form of increased government spending on social
    programs from legislators from all of Mexico,s major
    political parties.  The main concern of many of those
    engaging in this debate is that decreased remittances will
    soon prompt a sharp rise in poverty rates.  In testimony
    before the Mexican Senate the GOM,s Secretary of Social
    Development, Ernesto Cordero,acknowledged that the fall in
    the level remittances could prompt an increase in the number
    of families living below the poverty level. According to
    INEGI, the GOM,s National Statistics Institute, 82 percent
    of Mexico,s population has an income somewhere between one
    and five time the daily minimum wage.  (Note: The daily
    minimum wage is about 52.59 pesos or roughly USD 4.38).
    INEGI calculates that the income of an average Mexican family
    is about 3.5 times the daily minimum wage; which is
    considered just high enough to keep them above the poverty
    level.

    ¶5. Mexican President Felipe Calderon has announced a
    five-point emergency spending plan in an attempt to protect
    Mexico from the challenging globabl economic environment.

    MEXICO 00003108  002 OF 003

    The proposal calls for an additional 53 billion pesos to be
    spent over the next year on infrastrucuture, education, and
    energy, including the construction of a refinery that would
    in part be funded by one of the country,s oil stabilization
    funds.

    ¶6.  To date, the drop in remittances has had a major impact
    on a number of Mexican states, according to Raul Delgado a
    professor of development studies at the Autonomous University
    of Zacatecas.  Delgado noted that with severe negative
    implications on poverty levels, on 17 of Mexico,s 31 states:
    Hidalgo, Jalisco, Mexico City, Chiapas, Aguascalientes,
    Mexico State, Veracruz, Guanajuato, Queretaro, Michoacan,
    Colima, Sinaloa, Tabasco, Oaxaca, Campeche, Sonora and
    Yucatan. Continuing on, Delgado stated that the drop in
    worker remittances for the first half of 2008 when compared
    to the same period in 2007 in millions of dollars for the
    seven worst hit states is as follows:

       2007                  2008

    Hidalgo           472.3                  418.3
    Jalisco           981.3                  927.5
    Mexico City       684.8                  646.2
    Mexico State      983.5                  958.1
    Aguascalientes    178.7                  143.9
    Chiapas           382.0                  347.2
    Veracruz          720.4                  699.2

    REVERSE MIGRATION?
    ------------------

    ¶7. Participants in this national debate more or less agree
    that Mexico should be prepared for the possibility that the
    economic downturn in the United States could prompt
    large-scale reverse migration.  Several academics quoted in
    the national press noted that a large percentage of Mexicans
    migrants are employed in the US construction industry.  Given
    the current difficulties in the US job market in general and
    the housing industry in particular, these academics believe
    that some degree of reverse migration is inevitable.  The
    questions these academics pose is how large will this reverse
    migration eventually be and what will Mexico do with these
    returning migrants?

    ¶8.  The most conservative estimate of the number of migrants
    who might return to Mexico was put forth by GOM Labor
    Secretary Labor Javier Lozano who believes only some 200,000
    migrants will return home from the US.  The CNC calculates
    that some 350,000 migrants will come back to Mexico looking
    for work.  Thus far the only governor to speak out openly on
    this matter is Amalia Garcia of Zacatecas. Governor Garcia
    explained that Zacatecas is especially concerned about the
    possibility of large scale reverse migration since her
    administration estimates that fully fifty percent of the
    state,s population has migrated to the US over the last
    decades.

    ¶9.  Taken in context, neither the figure cited by Labor
    Secretary Lozano nor the one offered by the CNC are
    particularly large given that the GOM,s National Migration
    Institute calculates that 10 percent of Mexico,s estimated
    population of 106 million people now lives in the United
    States.  In a worse case scenario, if the financial situation
    in the US were to generate large-scale reverse migration, in
    all probability, Mexico,s governmental and social
    institutions would quickly be overwhelmed.  However, the
    possibility of significant numbers of Mexican migrants
    returning home from the US is extremely remote.  These
    migrants left Mexico because there was nothing to hold them
    in their own country and most are fully aware that they have
    nothing to come back to especially since, over time, many
    have succeeded in arranging for their families to join them
    in the United States.

    EMPLOYMENT AND OTHER CONUNDRUMS
    -------------------------------

    MEXICO 00003108  003 OF 003

    ¶10.  Although there appears to be little real chance of any
    large-scale reverse migration there will undoubtedly be some
    migrants who will choose to return to Mexico as a result of
    the financial situation in the United States.  It is
    impossible tell how many migrants will decide to come back to
    Mexico.  That being the case Labor Secretary Lozanzo,s
    guesstimate of 200,000 is as good a number as any.  Sticking
    firmly to his estimate Lozano has publicly stated several
    times that Mexico can easily provide employment for the
    relatively small number of migrants that are likely to return
    from the US.  According to Lozano, there are currently many
    more jobs than that available on offer at the job bank run by
    the Secretariat of Labor.  Moreover, Lozano said, if one
    counts the number of jobs generated on the informal economy,
    the number of jobs created since the start of the Calderon
    administration is well over one million.

    ¶11.  This statement by Lozano may be factually true with
    regard to the number of jobs on offer at his Secretariat but
    it is not particularly relevant to the real employment
    scenario en Mexico.  At given time there are always a large
    number of jobs on offer throughout many parts of Mexico.
    The problem is that the potential job seeks are unqualified
    for many of the higher skilled jobs and the salaries being
    offered for unskilled jobs are only a fraction of what a
    worker could earn doing a similar job in the United States.
    Not only that, but the salaries offered in Mexico for
    unskilled labor are often so low that most workers do not
    consider them a living wage.

    ¶11.  Labor Secretary Lozano,s statement about the existence
    of ready employment in Mexico for any migrants who may decide
    to return home (if one includes the informal economy) has
    been tepidly supported by PAN legislators in the Mexican
    Congress.  Opposition legislators have dismissed Lozano,s
    claims.  The dismissal by opposition legislators has only
    been reported pro-forma in the national press.  Instead the
    real focus with respect to the Labor Secretary,s statement
    has been on comments made by officials of the Bank of Mexico,
    the country,s central bank.

    ¶12.  According to these officials job growth on Mexico,s
    (formal) economy for his year is only projected to be about
    372,000.  If this figure holds true, the Bank of Mexico
    officials averred, it would be hard to credit the Calderon
    administration,s job creation figures.  In support of this
    statement the officials pointed to the fact that when Mexico
    experienced a similar financial crisis in 1994 the country
    lost over 400,000 jobs.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶13. At this point no one in the media, labor organizations,
    or government has presented any compelling evidence of what
    impact the US financial crisis will have on Mexico.  It is
    very unlikely that there will be any significant (voluntary)
    reverse migration.  The drop in remittances from migrant
    workers in the United States is probably the most immediate
    problem Mexico will have to deal with and it appears that
    President Calderon,s administration has begun to take some
    steps to address this matter.

    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
    Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
    GARZA

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