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### Viewing cable 09SANTIAGO524, CHILE'S SURPRISE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: HERE TO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09SANTIAGO524 | 2009-06-05 13:01 | 2010-12-29 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Santiago

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    VZCZCXYZ0000
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    P 051344Z JUN 09
    FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
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    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0935
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 1521
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    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 4430
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 2407
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000524

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR--STEIN, INR/B
    DEFENSE FOR OSD--LENIHAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2019
    TAGS: PGOV SOCI ECON SNAR CI BO
    SUBJECT: CHILE'S SURPRISE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: HERE TO
    STAY OR A FLASH IN THE PAN?

    REF: A. SANTIAGO 484
    ¶B. SANTIAGO 332

    Classified By: Political Officer Jennifer Spande for reason 1.4 (b).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Marco Enriquez-Ominami, a 35-year old
    Socialist parliamentarian and former filmmaker, has burst
    onto Chile's presidential scene in recent weeks. Known as
    one of the "unruly" parliamentarians from the ruling
    Concertacion coalition, Enriquez-Ominami is running against
    his party (and the Concertacion's) official candidate:
    former president Eduardo Frei. For a populace eager for
    change from boring Chilean politics, Enriquez-Ominami offers
    a fresh, young, charismatic face. However, his policy
    positions -- which few of his supporters seem to know about
    -- are wildly unpopular stances on controversial topics.
    While a poll released June 3 shows him neck and neck with
    Eduardo Frei (with Pinera leading them both), analysts are
    reserving judgement until the more reliable Centro de
    Estudios Publicos poll is released in mid-June. More style
    than substance, Enriquez-Ominami is unlikely to emerge as a
    serious presidential contender, but effectively captures the
    zeitgeist of Chilean frustration with politics as usual. End
    Summary.

    A Dashing Young Rulebreaker with a Compelling Story
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶2. (U) A young and attractive filmmaker turned upstart
    politician, Enriquez-Ominami symbolizes the break with
    Chile's staid politics that many Chileans crave. Just 35
    years old, Enriquez-Ominami is the son of iconic leftist
    leader Miguel Enriquez, a founder of the violent Movimiento
    Izquierdista Revolucionario (MIR). Miguel Enriquez was
    dramatically killed in 1974 when he refused to surrender to
    Chilean intelligence (DINA) agents, who were backed by
    hundreds of heavily armed soldiers, tanks, and helicopters.
    Marco's mother, journalist Manuela Gumucio, remarried. Her
    new husband, Carlos Ominami, a Socialist leader, adopted
    Marco at a young age.

    ¶3. (SBU) Enriquez-Ominami worked first as a filmmaker,
    directing both television programs (particularly reality
    shows) and movies. His wife, Karen Doggenweiler, is a
    television presenter and actress; they have a young daughter.
    Enriquez-Ominami made his way into politics on his father's
    coattails, adding the hyphenated "-Ominami" to his name and
    running for the lower chamber in the same region that his
    father represents in the Senate. Both Ominamis were elected
    in 2001 to represent the same area -- Carlos Ominami in his
    second term as senator, and Marco Enriquez-Ominami in his
    first term as deputy.

    Poll Numbers' Meteoric Rise
    ---------------------------

    ¶4. (U) Enriquez-Ominami, who only announced his candidacy in
    April, quickly overtook better-known leftist and independent
    politicians to become the leading choice outside of
    frontrunners Eduardo Frei and Sebastian Pinera, who are each
    backed by one of Chile's two political coalitions. While
    initially starting out with support in the 1-3% range
    (similar to that of other minor candidates representing small
    parties or splintering from their own coalition),
    Enriquez-Ominami has become a phenomenon in recent weeks.
    Several polls over the last few weeks have shown him with
    between 10-15% support, whereas a poll released on June 3
    showed that Enriquez-Ominami had as much support as official
    Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei. When asked to
    independently name who they would vote for ("open list"), 13%
    of survey respondents in the June 3 survey chose
    Enriquez-Ominami, 15% chose Frei, and 31% chose opposition
    candidate Sebastian Pinera. When asked to choose among a set
    of presidential candidates ("closed list"), the young
    parliamentarian received 26% support to Frei's 22% and
    Pinera's 35%.

    With Such a Great Image, Who Cares About Substance?
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶5. (U) The former filmmaker seems to enjoy the limelight as
    much as he enjoyed life behind the camera. He and other
    Concertacion parliamentarians earned the nickname of "unruly
    ones" ("discolos") for their frequent failure to toe the
    party line, not to mention periodic fist fights. Originally
    meant as a disparaging remark, the group embraced the term,
    the media attention it brought, and the identity of maverick
    politicians who challenged the Concertacion establishment.
    They have created their own website, taken polls
    second-guessing Concertacion leadership, and hosted forums
    for their own "discolo" Concertacion candidates for mayor.

    ¶6. (SBU) The young parliamentarian and his attractive wife
    have been a media sensation since launching his campaign. At
    a June 3 lunch in honor of visiting Senate Foreign Relations
    Staffer Carl Meacham, Chilean pollster Carlos Huneeus
    suggested that a flattering April profile of the couple in
    the Chilean daily La Tercera had essentially created
    Enriquez-Ominami's candidacy. While other analysts felt that
    this was overstated, it is clear that Enriquez-Ominami has
    suddenly been getting more than his fair share of media
    attention. A study released on June 3 found that in April
    only 6% of media coverage was about Enriquez-Ominami. By
    May, however, the three candidates received roughly equal
    amounts of media attention, even though Enriquez-Ominami had
    much less support (4-14%) than the other candidates and was
    not considered a serious contender. Not only did
    Enriquez-Ominami receive a lot of coverage, media reports
    about him were more likely to be favorable: 23% reports
    about Enriquez-Ominami were judged to be favorable compared
    to 15% for Pinera and just 9% for Frei. (Note: 60-70% of
    media coverage for each candidate was deemed to be neutral.
    End Note.) Some have called him "the Chilean Obama."

    ¶7. (U) Enriquez-Ominami appeals to the large segment of
    Chileans who are bored by politics and long for new faces
    (Ref A). However, with President Bachelet enjoying the
    highest approval rating of any Chilean president since the
    return to democracy, many of these citizens don't really want
    to see policies changed. When asked why they support
    Enriquez-Ominami, 43% of respondents in the June 3 poll
    listed his youth, while other top answers were equally vague:
    "He has new ideas", "He'll give opportunities to new
    people", "I like him", and "I believe in him." In contrast,
    Pinera and Frei supporters offered a mix of responses that
    included experience, specific skills, proposed policy
    changes, and personal characteristics.

    Behind the Image, Controversial Positions
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶8. (U) If Chileans were to investigate the positions that
    the unruly socialist espouses, they would find them to be
    extremely unpopular: legalizing gay marriage, giving Bolivia
    access to the sea, privatizing the state-owned copper
    company, and legalizing marijuana. While few supporters seem
    to have scratched under the surface of the Enriquez-Ominami
    campaign, his positions have nonetheless had an impact on
    other candidates. This week both Frei and Pinera announced
    their support for civil unions for gay couples -- a
    remarkably progressive position in a conservative Catholic
    country which only recently legalized divorce and does not
    allow abortion under any circumstances.

    What's In It For Him?
    ---------------------

    ¶9. (C) It is not clear why Enriquez-Ominami decided to enter
    the presidential race, nor what -- if any -- end game
    strategy he has in mind. Given his youth and unconventional
    positions, it is hard to imagine him as a serious
    presidential contender. In a conversation with Poloff,
    Christian Democrat politician Jorge Navarette speculated that
    Enriquez-Ominami may have decided to run for President
    because he was bored with his position in the Chamber of
    Deputies and wanted a "heroic" way to leave politics.
    Alternatively, Navarette suggested, he may have hoped to earn
    enough support to fulfill other political ambitions --

    perhaps a spot on Concertacion's senatorial slate.

    ¶10. (SBU) At this point, Enriquez-Ominami's candidacy seems
    to have taken on a life of its own, with poll numbers
    generating media which generate still higher poll numbers.
    The unruly Socialist has announced that he is forming his own
    list of parliamentary candidates, but so far seems to have
    had little success in attracting many serious candidates.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶11. (C) Enriquez-Ominami is the talk of the town. In this
    early period in the presidential race -- where more attention
    is focused on which parliamentary candidates are running in
    which districts, and campaign teams are still finalizing
    policy positions, it is hardly possible to have a discussion
    about presidential politics that does not center around this
    dark horse candidate. Yet it is not yet clear that the
    "Marco phenomenon" will last. Concertacion frontrunner
    Eduardo Frei is a tired candidate who has put forward few new
    ideas. His poorly-managed campaign invites younger
    challengers. Radical party (PRSD) leader Jose Antonio Gomez
    also rose impressively from obscurity to some measure of fame
    (and poll popularity) in February and March before
    disappearing from the public eye following his defeat in the
    April regional primary (Ref B).

    ¶12. (U) Astute observers are careful to note the myriad
    limitations of the polls conducted in the last few months --
    from geographic areas not sampled to reliance on landlines
    (which exclude poorer individuals) to the inclusion of
    unregistered voters -- and are breathlessly awaiting the
    release of the Centro de Estudios Publicos (CEP) poll in
    mid-June. Far more rigorous than the others but conducted
    only twice a year, the CEP poll is Chile's gold standard.
    The release of this year's June CEP poll will be like Chile's
    "Super Tuesday," one analyst said, with political parties and
    candidates using the data to assess their chances of victory
    and deciding whether to remain in the race.
    SIMONS

`