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### Viewing cable 10LIMA97, THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10LIMA97 | 2010-01-28 20:08 | 2011-02-19 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Lima
Appears in these articles: http://elcomercio.pe/

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    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000097

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PE
    SUBJECT: THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU

    REF: 09 LIMA 1561; 09 LIMA 1053; 09 LIMA 899

    DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D

    ¶1.  (C) Summary. ...
    id: 246088
    date: 1/28/2010 20:49
    refid: 10LIMA97
    origin: Embassy Lima
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination: 09LIMA1053|09LIMA1561|09LIMA899
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #0097/01 0282049
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
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    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
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    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
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    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 000097

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PE
    SUBJECT: THE STATE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN PERU

    REF: 09 LIMA 1561; 09 LIMA 1053; 09 LIMA 899

    DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D

    ¶1.  (C) Summary.  In Peru's consolidating democracy, established
    political parties will participate in the 2010 regional elections
    and 2011 national elections as weak, largely personality-based
    organizations that represent narrow constituencies.  The ruling
    APRA party is the most fully structured, with a solid 20% base of
    support mostly concentrated along the coast, but its approach to
    2011 is ambiguous given that President Garcia cannot run.  Lourdes
    Flores' PPC is heavily Lima-centric, while the Nationalist Party
    (PNP) has expanding regional structures but remains the electoral
    vehicle of Ollanta Humala.  Other smaller parties are either eroded
    or only partially developed political structures built around
    personalities such as former President Fujimori.   The weakness of
    political parties means that regional movements, outsider
    candidates and potential anti-system elements remain well-placed to
    fill the vacuum and could surge as genuine electoral alternatives.
    End Summary.

    Weak Parties Lack National Presence

    ¶2.  (C) As Peru's still-consolidating democracy gears up for
    another electoral season (local and regional elections are
    scheduled for October of this year, national elections for April of
    2011), general institutional fragility and ineffectiveness are
    acutely reflected in the country's established political parties.
    Weak and often personality-based, parties represent narrow
    constituencies, mostly in urban areas, rather than broad
    cross-sections of society.   Because parties have been unable to
    articulate a national vision, there are virtually no broad-based
    political movements or coalitions with extensive popular support
    nation-wide.  In addition, parties are often reluctant to open
    themselves up to outside participation and renovate their
    leadership with new blood; as a result, they have among the lowest
    levels of citizen confidence among all democratic institutions.
    According to the 2008 Americas Barometer poll, only 20% of
    Peruvians identified with a party - down from 30% in 2006.  This
    means that 80% of electorate is up for grabs in the next election,
    without an identified mechanism to channel their interests,
    proposals, or complaints to the government.  It also leaves the
    great majority of voters potentially open to the appeal of the
    "outsider" candidate - a fresh face unconnected to any established
    party who articulates frustration with the current political system
    and its ineffective or corrupt institutions.

    ¶3.  (C) Part of the disenchantment with parties stems from a larger
    frustration with successive governments perceived as unable or
    unwilling to resolve Peru's persistent structural problems, such as
    inequality, poverty and unemployment, in an (as yet) politically
    decisive way.  In this sense, because parties form governments and
    legislatures, they have limited credibility as actors capable of
    addressing the population's needs.   Paradoxically, despite
    declining popular support, the number of parties in Peru is
    increasing: 26 parties are currently registered in this country of
    28 million, with more on the path to registration.  This
    bewildering array of options makes it even more difficult for the
    average citizen to distinguish among parties and what they offer.
    As one local analyst put it, parties in Peru display symptoms of
    autism: they repeat the same messages over and over, are incapable
    of recognizing the valid participation of others, and are largely
    focused on internal concerns.

    ¶4.  (C) Outside Lima and other major population centers, national
    parties that link together Peru's diverse regions are essentially
    absent, making it difficult to develop consensus and compromise on
    national policies and legislation.  While national party figures
    travel to the regions to build party structures and identify
    candidates for local office, they are usually unfamiliar with the
    key local issues and unable to judge and select appropriate leaders
    with potential national projection.  As a result, in 2006, regional
    movements representing often narrow local platforms and visions
    captured 21 of 25 regional presidencies.  While these regional
    movements vary in effectiveness and popular support, they have no
    single political vision or program binding them to one another or
    to a national political vision, which has generated a highly
    fragmented and fractured political environment at the national
    level.  Several regional leaders, such as Mayor of Trujillo Cesar
    Acuna and President of San Martin Cesar Villanueva, are trying to
    project a national vision from a regional base in the run-up to the
    upcoming elections.

    Structured Parties Few

    ¶5.  (C) The ruling APRA (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance)
    party is the most fully structured in the country, with a solid 20%
    of core supporters among the electorate largely concentrated in the
    coastal areas.  Many observers describe the APRA as the only true
    political party in Peru,  alone in having a serious party machinery
    capable of mobilizing its mass membership during electoral and
    non-electoral periods, and known for the strict discipline of its
    members of Congress and rank and file - once a decision at the top
    level has been made.   The APRA's approach to upcoming elections
    remains ill-defined, however, largely because President Alan Garcia
    is constitutionally barred from running in 2011 and widely reported
    to be contemplating a third run in 2016.  To many observers, this
    calculation means that Garcia seeks to maintain control of the
    party in the interim and could choose to do so by throwing his
    support to a non-APRA party presidential candidate in 2011.
    Nevertheless, APRA stalwarts, including former PM Jorge Del
    Castillo, have publicly stated their interest in becoming the
    party's candidate for 2011.

    ¶6.  (C) The Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC), arguably Peru's second
    most structured party, has little presence outside Lima.  Many
    observers believe this - and its image as mostly representing
    Peru's upper classes - explains why PPC president and past
    presidential candidate, Lourdes Flores, has fallen short in several
    successive national elections.  According to media and insider
    reports, Flores is currently contemplating running for Mayor of
    Lima and relinquishing her national political aspirations - for
    now.  By contrast, the PNP is the only national party with a
    significant network in Peru's impoverished rural communities (with
    the possible exception of the fujimoristas), and many analysts say
    that its quiet work in strengthening and expanding existing
    structures has continued over the past three years.  That said, the
    PNP is also seen as the personal electoral vehicle of former
    presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, it is reportedly tightly
    controlled by Humala's wife and advisor Nadine Herrera, and it has
    sought to tighten links with radical groups (
     ref A), which has
    caused serious internal tensions and a number of defections in past
    months.

    High Profile Leaders Lack Solid Party Structures

    ¶7.  (C) Other smaller parties are either eroded or not
    fully-developed political structures built around personalities.
    The current polling leaders generally fall under this category:

    -- Likely candidate Luis CastaC1eda has a high approval rating and
    tops most recent polling thanks to his performance as mayor of
    Lima, but his party, National Solidarity (Solidaridad Nacional),
    has little national reach.  He has sought to overcome this with
    targeted social works - such as building "Solidarity Hospitals" -
    in poor areas throughout the country
    -- Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori,  who often places second in the
    polls behind CastaC1eda, derives her popularity almost exclusively
    from her father, former President Alberto Fujimori  (currently
    imprisoned on human rights, corruption and other charges.)  Keiko's
    nascent political movement, Force 2011 (Fuerza 2011), is made up of
    a succession of fujimorista "parties" with little internal
    structure or organization but a solid base of support in middle and
    lower class areas that formed the backbone of former President
    Fujimori's political strength.

    -- Former President and possible 2011 candidate Alejandro Toledo's
    party, Peru Possible (Peru Posible) holds a smattering of elected
    offices outside Lima but revolves mostly around Toledo's (long
    distance, for now) leadership.  Popular Action (AcciC3n Popular), a
    traditional party that had the presidency twice in modern Peruvian
    history, has faded in recent years and lacks a presidential
    candidate with broad name recognition.

    -- Other possible contenders - including Cajamarca environmental
    activist and former priest Marco Arana, retired Commander of the
    Army General Edwin Donayre, former PM and President of Lambayeque
    region Yehude Simon and former PM and Finance Minister Pedro Pablo
    Kuczynski - have some degree of name recognition but little party
    structure to speak of.  The quintessence of the party-less
    presidential aspirant, at this juncture, may be polemic author/talk
    show host Jaime Bayly, whose rumored candidacy has fueled much
    media commentary in recent days, some of it serious.

    Comment: With Weak Parties, Outsiders Fill the Gap

    ¶8.  (C) With Peru poised to enter another electoral cycle in
    2010-2011, the weakened state of political parties means that
    regional movements, outsider candidates and potential anti-system
    elements remain well-placed to fill the vacuum and surge as genuine
    electoral alternatives.   While the absence of established national
    parties with nationwide constituencies need not lead inexorably to
    the selection of an "outsider" or anti-system candidate, it would
    seem to make such a choice more likely.  A politician keenly
    attuned to the spirit of the times, even President Garcia recently
    stated that the next APRA candidate would be an "outsider."
    McKinley

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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