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### Viewing cable 09STATE127892, NATO CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR OUR BALTIC ALLIES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09STATE127892 | 2009-12-15 09:09 | 2010-12-06 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Secretary of State

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHC #7892 3491053
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 151050Z DEC 09
    FM SECSTATE WASHDC
    TO AMEMBASSY WARSAW IMMEDIATE 0000

` `

    S E C R E T STATE 127892

    NOFORN

    FOLLOWING STATE 127892 DATED 150910Z DEC 09 SENT ACTION RIGA,
    TALLINN, VILNIUS, USNATO INFO ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE IS BEING
    REPEATED FOR YOUR ACTION.
    QUOTE:

    S E C R E T STATE 127892

    SIPDIS
    NOFORN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
    TAGS: NATO MARR MCAP PREL EN LG LH PL
    SUBJECT: NATO CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR OUR BALTIC ALLIES

    REFS: A) USNATO 561  B) USNATO 464  C) VILNIUS 569
    D) RIGA 514

    Classified By: ACTING EUR A/S NANCY MCELDOWNEY -FOR REASONS 1.4(B)
    AND (D)

    ¶1. (U) This is an action cable.  Please see paragraphs 2-3.

    ¶2. (S/NF) Summary and Action Request. The United States is
    developing a strategy for reaffirming both NATO and U.S.
    commitment to the core responsibility of the Alliance:
    collective defense.  Examining NATO's approach to contingency
    planning will be one element of that strategy.  Moving from
    country-specific to regional contingency plans is one potential
    method. Expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN could be a first step in favor of
    regional planning.  USNATO should engage NATO Secretary General
    Rasmussen to begin to build support for expanding Eagle Guardian.
    In early 2010, the U.S. Military Representative (MILREP) at NATO
    HQ should take the following actions:  1) meet jointly with the
    Chairman of the Military Committee (CMC), the German MILREP, and
    other MILREPs as appropriate to urge the CMC to task the Supreme
    Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR) to include the Baltic States in
    the revision of EAGLE GUARDIAN, and 2) approach the CMC and
    request that he task SACEUR to brief the Military Committee on
    each of NATO's contingency plans with guidance that he identify
    any gaps in those plans.  We will be better positioned to consider
    a broader regional approach after receiving SACEUR's assessment

    USNATO and Action Embassies are asked to engage with appropriate
    Baltic and Polish officials before December 16 to outline the U.S.
    position, while stressing the need to keep details related to
    NATO's military plans confidential.  Contingency points are also
    provided at paragraph 4 for responding to public inquiries. End
    Summary and Action Request.

    ¶3. (S) Washington shares USNATO's goal of a non-politicized
    process for moving forward.  Washington believes that increased
    public attention on the issue could complicate our efforts to
    achieve that goal.  We need to make that point clearly to our
    Baltic Allies and Poland, while also underscoring that we take
    their request for NATO contingency planning seriously and support
    steps to address their concerns.  We understand Baltic and Polish
    leaders will meet on December 16 and will discuss, among other
    topics, NATO contingency planning.  It will be important to engage
    with Baltic and Polish officials in advance of that meeting to
    both outline our support for expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN, and our
    vision for a process that can deliver a successful result.  In
    discussions with Baltic and Polish officials, Action Posts should
    draw upon the points below.

    (S/REL NATO) Begin Talking Points:

    FOR RIGA, TALLINN, AND VILNIUS

    -- The United States has taken careful note of the
    repeated requests by all three Baltic states for NATO
    contingency planning for the defense of the Baltic
    region.

    -- The United States believes that NATO - as a matter of
    course - should conduct appropriate contingency planning
    for the possible defense of Allied territory and
    populations.  NATO's Article 5 commitment requires no
    less.

    -- As President Obama said in Prague: "We must work
    together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans
    in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come
    from."

    -- After spending the last several months examining
    options on how to carry out NATO contingency planning for
    the Baltic states, the United States has decided that the
    best course of action would be to take advantage of the
    ongoing revision of the existing defense of Poland plan,
    EAGLE GUARDIAN.  EAGLE GUARDIAN could be expanded to
    include the defense of the Baltic states.  This expansion
    is a logical military extension of the existing
    contingency plan and fits well within the scenario posited
    by EAGLE GUARDIAN.

    -- We would also like to make clear that we see the
    expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN as a step toward the possible
    expansion of NATO's other existing country-specific contingency
    plans into regional plans.  This is the first step in a multi-
    stage process to develop a complete set of appropriate contingency
    plans for the full range of possible threats -- both regional and
    functional -- as soon as possible.  At the same time, we believe
    contingency planning is only one element of NATO's Article 5
    preparedness.

    -- The United States is prepared to work closely with NATO
    Military Authorities and with other Allies to forge a
    consensus in favor of expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the
    defense of the Baltic states, starting immediately in the new year
    when NATO reopens following its winter break.

    (S/REL NATO) FOR WARSAW

    -- The United States has taken careful note of the
    repeated requests by all three Baltic states for NATO
    contingency planning for the defense of the Baltic
    region.

    -- The United States believes that NATO - as a matter of
    course - should conduct appropriate contingency planning
    for the possible defense of Allied territory and
    populations.  NATO's Article 5 commitment requires no
    less.

    -- As President Obama said in Prague: "We must work
    together as NATO members so that we have contingency plans
    in place to deal with new threats, wherever they may come
    from."

    -- After spending the last several months examining
    options for how to carry out NATO contingency planning for
    the Baltic states, the United States has decided that the
    best course of action would be to take advantage of the
    ongoing revision of the existing defense of Poland plan,
    EAGLE GUARDIAN.  EAGLE GUARDIAN could be expanded to
    include the defense of the Baltic states.

    -- This expansion is a logical military extension of the
    existing contingency plan and fits well within the
    scenario posited by EAGLE GUARDIAN.  In fact, defending
    Poland necessarily entails defending the Baltic states, as
    well.

    -- We would also like to make clear that we see the
    expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN as a step toward the possible
    expansion of NATO's other existing country-specific contingency
    plans into regional plans.  This is the first step in a multi-
    stage process to develop a complete set of appropriate contingency
    plans for the full range of possible threats - both regional and
    functional - as soon as possible.  At the same time, we believe
    contingency planning is only one element of NATO's Article 5
    preparedness.

    -- The United States is prepared to work closely with NATO
    Military Authorities and with other Allies to forge a
    consensus in favor of expanding EAGLE GUARDIAN to include the
    defense of the Baltic states, starting immediately in the new year
    when NATO reopens following its winter break.

    -- We do not believe that this will result in any
    significant delays for concluding the EAGLE GUARDIAN
    revision.  Nor do we believe that this in any way
    endangers planning for the defense of Poland.  In fact, we
    believe that the planning for the defense of Poland will
    be much more robust with the inclusion of the Baltics.

    (S/REL NATO) POINTS ABOUT PUBLIC DISCUSSION OF PLANS (FOR USE AT
    POST'S DISCRETION)

    -- The United States believes strongly
    that such planning should not be discussed
    publicly.
    These military plans are classified
    at
    the NATO SECRET level
    .

    -- The Alliance has many public diplomacy tools at its
    disposal.  Contingency planning is not one of them.  What
    we should do is explore other public steps for
    demonstrating the vitality of Article 5, such as
    exercises, defense investment, and partnerships.

    -- Public discussion of contingency plans undermines their
    military value, giving insight into NATO's planning
    processes.  This weakens the security of all Allies.

    --
    Public discussion of the plan would also make it
    politically much more difficult for some Allies to support
    the EAGLE GUARDIAN revision, creating divisions within the
    Alliance and throwing the whole project into doubt.

    -- A public discussion of contingency planning would also
    likely lead to an unnecessary increase in NATO-Russia
    tensions, something we should try to avoid as we work to
    improve practical cooperation in areas of common
    NATO-Russia interest.

    -- We believe that the proposed revision of EAGLE GUARDIAN
    is achievable and will represent a significant response to
    the Baltic request for contingency planning.

    -- We hope that we can count on your support in these
    efforts, including on keeping discussions on NATO
    contingency planning out of the public domain.

    -- We should work together on using exercises, defense
    investment, and partnerships to demonstrate to our publics
    that Article 5's value ultimately lies in NATO's
    capabilities and deterrence, rather than specific
    planning.

    (C) FOR ALL ACTION POSTS -- IF ASKED

    Q: Why wait until the new year?  Why not start now?
    A: NATO Headquarters is heading into its winter break,
    when only a skeletal staff is in place.  Our ability to
    achieve success in this matter will be substantially
    improved once senior Allied personnel have returned to
    work early in the new year.  We pledge to take the matter
    up expeditiously at that time.

    Q: Will waiting until the new year give NATO Military
    Authorities sufficient time to complete the revision of
    the EAGLE GUARDIAN?

    A: According to our conversations with NATO's senior
    military authorities, beginning the process of
    incorporating the Baltic states into EAGLE GUARDIAN in
    early January still gives them sufficient time to complete
    the revision by February as originally planned.

    ¶4.  (C) Washington strongly prefers that discussion of
    NATO's contingency plans in general, and the possible
    expansion of EAGLE GUARDIAN in particular, remain in
    confidential channels.  However, posts may use the points
    below if necessary in responding to public queries about
    these issues.

    (U) PUBLIC/PRESS INQUIRIES -- IF ASKED:

    -- NATO does not discuss specific plans.

    -- As a matter of course, however, NATO does planning in
    order to be as prepared as possible for whatever
    situations might arise, particularly as relates to its
    ability to carrying out its Article 5 commitments.

    -- Plans are not static.  NATO is constantly reviewing and
    revising its plans.

    -- NATO planning, however, is an internal process designed
    to make the Alliance as prepared as possible for future
    contingencies.  It is not "aimed" at any other country.

    -- President Obama acknowledged this when he said at
    Prague that "We must work together as NATO members so that
    we have contingency plans in place to deal with new
    threats, wherever they may come from."
    CLINTON UNQUOTE CLINTON

`