

Currently released so far... 12553 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
APECO
ASEC
AMGT
AFIN
APER
ACABQ
AORC
AEMR
AF
AE
AR
AGMT
AU
AY
ABLD
AS
AG
AJ
APCS
AX
AM
AMEX
ATRN
ADM
AMED
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AL
ASUP
AND
ARM
ASEAN
AFFAIRS
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
AODE
APEC
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AO
ABUD
AC
ADPM
ADCO
ASIG
ARF
AUC
ASEX
AGAO
AA
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AIT
AADP
ASCH
AORL
AROC
ACOA
ANET
AID
AMCHAMS
AINF
AMG
AFU
AN
ALOW
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ACS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AGR
BEXP
BR
BM
BG
BL
BA
BTIO
BO
BP
BC
BILAT
BK
BU
BD
BRUSSELS
BB
BF
BBSR
BIDEN
BX
BE
BH
BT
BY
BMGT
BWC
BTIU
BN
CA
CASC
CFED
CO
CH
CS
CU
CE
CI
CM
CMGT
CJAN
COM
CG
CIS
CVIS
CR
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTER
CIA
CLINTON
CY
CPAS
CD
CBW
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CDG
CW
CODEL
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
COE
CN
CARICOM
CB
CONDOLEEZZA
CWC
CACS
CSW
CIDA
CIC
CITT
CONS
CL
CACM
CDB
CDC
CAN
CF
CJUS
CTM
CBSA
CARSON
CT
CLMT
CBC
CEUDA
CV
COPUOS
CTR
CROS
CAPC
CAC
CNARC
CICTE
CBE
ECON
ETRD
EIND
ENRG
EC
ELAB
EAGR
EAID
EFIS
EFIN
EINV
EUN
EG
EPET
EAIR
EU
ELTN
EWWT
ECIN
ERD
EI
ETTC
EUR
EN
EZ
ETC
ENVI
EMIN
ET
ENVR
ER
ECPS
EINT
EAP
ES
ENIV
ECONOMY
EXTERNAL
EINN
EFTA
ECONOMIC
EPA
EXBS
ECA
ELN
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENGR
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
ELECTIONS
EIAR
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
ENERG
EFIM
EAIDS
EK
ETRDECONWTOCS
EINVETC
ECONCS
EUNCH
ESA
ECINECONCS
EUREM
ESENV
EFINECONCS
ETRC
ENNP
EAIG
EXIM
EEPET
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
ERNG
ETRO
ETRN
EINVEFIN
ICTY
IN
IS
IR
IC
IZ
IA
INTERPOL
IAEA
IT
IMO
IO
IV
ID
IRAQI
IEA
INRB
IL
IWC
ITU
ICAO
ISRAELI
ICRC
IIP
IMF
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
ITALY
ITALIAN
ILO
IPR
IQ
IRS
IAHRC
IZPREL
IRAJ
IDP
ILC
ITF
ICJ
IF
ITPHUM
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
IACI
IBET
ITRA
INR
IRC
IDA
ICTR
IGAD
INRA
INRO
IEFIN
INTELSAT
INTERNAL
INDO
ITPGOV
KWMN
KSCA
KDEM
KTFN
KIPR
KCRM
KPAL
KE
KPAO
KPKO
KS
KN
KISL
KFRD
KJUS
KIRF
KFLO
KG
KTIP
KTER
KRCM
KTIA
KGHG
KIRC
KU
KPRP
KMCA
KMPI
KSEO
KNNP
KZ
KNEI
KCOR
KOMC
KCFC
KSTC
KMDR
KFLU
KSAF
KSEP
KSAC
KR
KGIC
KSUM
KWBG
KCIP
KDRG
KOLY
KAWC
KCHG
KHDP
KRVC
KBIO
KAWK
KGCC
KHLS
KBCT
KPLS
KREL
KCFE
KMFO
KV
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KVPR
KTDB
KSPR
KIDE
KVRP
KTEX
KBTR
KTRD
KICC
KCOM
KO
KLIG
KDEMAF
KMRS
KRAD
KOCI
KSTH
KUNR
KNSD
KGIT
KFSC
KHIV
KPAI
KICA
KACT
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCMR
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KNAR
KNUC
KPWR
KENV
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KPRV
KOM
KBTS
KCRS
KNPP
KWNM
KRFD
KVIR
KTBT
KAID
KRIM
KDDG
KRGY
KHSA
KWMM
KMOC
KSCI
KPAK
KX
KPAONZ
KCGC
KID
KPOA
KIFR
KFIN
KWAC
KOMS
KCRCM
KNUP
KMIG
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KJUST
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MX
MCAP
MO
MR
MI
MD
MK
MA
MP
MY
MTCRE
MOPPS
MASC
MIL
MTS
MLS
MILI
MAR
MU
MEPN
MAPP
MTCR
MEPI
MZ
MEETINGS
MG
MW
MAS
MT
MCC
MIK
ML
MARAD
MV
MERCOSUR
MTRE
MPOS
MEPP
MILITARY
MDC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MRCRE
MAPS
MEDIA
MASSMNUC
MC
NZ
NZUS
NL
NU
NATO
NP
NO
NIPP
NE
NH
NR
NA
NPT
NI
NSF
NG
NSG
NAFTA
NC
NDP
NEW
NRR
NATIONAL
NT
NS
NASA
NAR
NV
NORAD
NSSP
NK
NPA
NGO
NSC
NATOPREL
NW
NPG
NSFO
OPDC
OTRA
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OSCE
OEXC
OIE
OPRC
OAS
OPIC
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFFICIALS
OECD
OSCI
OBSP
OFDA
OPCW
ODIP
OFDP
OES
OPAD
OCII
OHUM
OVP
ON
OIC
OCS
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PINR
PTER
PARM
PREF
PM
PE
PINS
PK
PHSA
PBTS
PRGOV
PA
PORG
PP
PS
PGOF
PL
PO
PARMS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PAK
POL
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PBIO
PINF
PNG
PMIL
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PAO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PTBS
PCUL
PROP
PNAT
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PROG
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
PGOC
PY
PCI
PLN
PDOV
PREO
PGIV
PHUH
PAS
PU
POGOV
PF
PINL
POV
PAHO
PRL
PG
PRAM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POLICY
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PGGV
PHUS
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PEL
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PBT
PTERE
RS
RU
RW
RM
RO
RP
REGION
RSP
RF
RICE
RCMP
RFE
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
RUPREL
RELATIONS
ROOD
REACTION
RSO
REPORT
SENV
SNAR
SCUL
SR
SC
SOCI
SMIG
SI
SP
SU
SO
SW
SY
SA
SZ
SAN
SF
SN
STEINBERG
SG
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SAARC
SL
SEVN
SARS
SIPRS
SHUM
SANC
SWE
SHI
SYR
SNARCS
SPCE
SYRIA
SEN
SH
SCRS
SENVKGHG
TRGY
TSPL
TPHY
TSPA
TBIO
TI
TW
THPY
TX
TU
TS
TZ
TC
TH
TT
TIP
TO
TERRORISM
TRSY
TINT
TN
TURKEY
TBID
TL
TV
TNGD
TD
TF
TP
TFIN
TAGS
TK
TR
UNSC
UK
UNGA
UN
US
UNHRC
UG
UP
UNMIK
UNHCR
UE
USTR
UNVIE
UAE
UZ
UY
UNO
UNESCO
USEU
USOAS
UV
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNEP
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNDP
UNPUOS
UNC
UNAUS
USUN
UNCHC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCSD
UNDC
USNC
USPS
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06NEWDELHI613, POLITICAL CHALLENGES COMPLICATE AND DIVERT
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06NEWDELHI613.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06NEWDELHI613 | 2006-01-27 11:29 | 2011-03-16 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy New Delhi |
Appears in these articles: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article1541115.ece |
VZCZCXRO4182
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #0613/01 0271129
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271129Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9074
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9903
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 3011
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 3029
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 5913
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 3673
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 6357
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2663
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1140
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0852
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1866
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 2010
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0094
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 2696
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8718
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0852
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000613
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: POLITICAL CHALLENGES COMPLICATE AND DIVERT
CONGRESS ATTENTION FROM FOREIGN POLICY
REF: A. NEW DELHI 552 B. NEW DELHI 546 C. 05 NEW DELHI 8844 D. 05 NEW DELHI 7909
Classified By: DCM Bob Blake Jr., for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
¶1. (C) Summary: Several simmering political developments have come to a head in the past few weeks, diverting some of the GOI's attention from foreign policy issues such as Iran, the US-India civil-nuclear agreement and the POTUS visit. The January 24 ruling by India's Supreme Court that the UPA dissolution of the Bihar government in May 2005 was unconstitutional combined with the impending collapse of the Congress-dominated coalition government in Karnataka, have presented India's ruling party with serious domestic challenges. These Congress missteps have presented the opposition BJP/NDA with political opportunities. The BJP/NDA is set quickly to form a government in Karnataka and have called on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President Sonia Gandhi to accept responsibility for the SC judgment and resign, although they will not. The January 22 Congress leadership meeting in Hyderabad underscored the inherent weaknesses in party culture that make it difficult for Congress to address these challenges. Congress inability to reach out to the masses in India's Hindi heartland (Reftel A), continued dependence on the Gandhi family for leadership, and behind the scenes backbiting and squabbling are likely to prevent the party from mounting a cohesive and timely response as it faces likely electoral defeats in several key state assembly elections in 2006. While the opposition has been energized by these developments, few expect the UPA government to fall and most expect it to serve out a full term. Meanwhile, PM Singh's attention to pressing foreign matters will necessarily be diluted until these domestic pressures subside. End Summary.
Karnataka's Government Unravels
-------------------------------
¶2. (C) Congress missteps have come home to roost (reftel B), forcing the party to engage in damage control and diverting its attention away from other pressing business of state. In Karnataka, Congress hubris and inability to effectively manage a coalition government will likely lead to its collapse. In May 2004, Congress and the Janata Dal(S) combined to form a coalition government in Karnataka. Although the two parties were not close, they argued that the alliance was necessary to keep the ""communal"" BJP out of power. In a surprise development, HD Kumaraswamy, the son of JD(S) president and former Prime Minister Dewe Gowda, on January 18 led a majority of his party's MLAs into an alliance with the BJP and staked his claim to form the government. Although the JD(S) and BJP are scheduled to prove their majority on January 27, most observers believe they have an unassailable majority and a new government in Karnataka is inevitable. Should the BJP come to power as expected, this will be the first time that it has formed a government in South India and will be an embarrassing setback for Congress.
The Supreme Court Rules Against Congress
----------------------------------------
¶3. (U) On January 24, the Supreme Court released its long-awaited judgment regarding the constitutionality of the UPA dismissal of the Bihar government in May 2005. The UPA-appointed governor Buta Singh argued that dismissal was
NEW DELHI 00000613 002 OF 003 necessary to prevent the BJP from buying legislators with ""monetary inducements."" The SC rejected this argument, ruling that the governor acted without presenting evidence and on the basis of ""mere perception."" Deriding the dismissal as ""destructive of the democratic system"" and ""drastic and extreme,"" three of the five justices declared that the ""Court could not remain a silent spectator to such subversion of the Constitution."" The SC pointed out that the UPA should have ""exercised caution,"" and urged the GOI to appoint ""non-political"" governors in the future.
¶4. (C) Noting that ""A ruler who says he was misled does not deserve to be a rule"" BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitley demanded the immediate resignation of PM Singh, Sonia Gandhi and the entire cabinet. Speaking for the NDA Janata Dal(U) President George Fernandes supported the BJP demands and accused PM Singh of deliberately misleading President Kalam into ""committing an unconstitutional act."" Congress did not immediately dismiss the governor or present a focused rebuttal. PM Singh stated that he ""accepted and respected,"" the adverse ruling. Congress spokesman Abhishek Singhvi noted that the party would accept the ruling with ""humility,"" but claimed that it did not find fault with the UPA Cabinet or leadership. Buta Singh resigned on January 26, after accepting the Republic Day flag salute. The opposition was quick to assault Congress for its failure to insist on Singh's resignation before the holiday.
Congress Slow off the Mark
--------------------------
¶5. (C) Congress inability to mount a quick or coherent response to these challenges reflects inherent weaknesses in its party structure and culture, which were evident in the party's January 22 leadership session in Hyderabad. From the outset, the 10,000 party leaders and workers went to extraordinary lengths to demonstrate their sycophantic loyalty to the Gandhi family. Although Sonia Gandhi requested that such demonstrations be held to a minimum, participants staged disruptive demonstrations demanding that the party induct Rahul Gandhi into the leadership and provide him a space on the podium. In her address, Mrs. Gandhi pointed out once again that Congress must revive its strength in the Hindi heartland. Rahul rejected arguments that the Congress loss of its North Indian power base demonstrated the party's failure to master caste politics. Instead, he urged Congress to mobilize its ""youth power"" and energize its dormant cadre and declined, for the time being, to accept a post in the Congress leadership.
Comment: Weakened but Secure
-----------------------------
¶6. (C) Congress weaknesses have become evident since its 2004 ascent to power in New Delhi. In the crucial Hindi belt, its elitist leadership (including Sonia Gandhi and her children) are unwilling to go into the countryside to engage with the masses and regain their loyalty. Inside the party, there is an over-reliance on the Gandhi brand to solve all problems. The insistence on outward displays of loyalty to the Gandhis has prevented the emergence of a strong and credible second tier leadership capable of mounting effective state-wide campaigns in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. The coterie surrounding the Gandhis believe that public loyalty to ""Madam"" gives them a license to backbite and squabble behind the scenes. The party leadership in Karnataka arrogantly dismissed JD(S) attempts to share power, insisting that Congress should predominate. Even now, with
NEW DELHI 00000613 003 OF 003 the government falling, unrepentant Congressmen in the state insist that Congress should hand over power to the BJP and join the opposition rather than make concessions to its coalition partner. These inherent defects are likely to result in poor showings in upcoming state assembly elections. Pundits predict that the Left parties will trounce Congress in West Bengal and Kerala and that the BJP/NDA will likely defeat the Congress-led coalition in Orissa. These losses would follow the fall of Congress-dominated governments in Bihar, Jharkhand and now Karnataka.
Holding on to Power - But Distracted
------------------------------------
¶7. (C) Despite these recent jolts and the expected electoral defeats, the UPA is not in danger of falling. Most observers expect the party to remain in power for a full term and this has been borne out by recent polling data (Reftel B). However, Congress has demonstrated that it is incapable of quickly making the corrections necessary to address its failings and get back on course. The party is likely to scramble for some time before devising an appropriate response to fast-breaking events. In an era of finely-balanced coalition government, domestic political concerns remain the top priority of every Indian political party, including Congress. Domestic political challenges could distract the party and make the UPA government more cautious than normal in grappling with foreign policy issues in the run-up to the President's March visit.
¶8. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD