

Currently released so far... 12553 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
APECO
ASEC
AMGT
AFIN
APER
ACABQ
AORC
AEMR
AF
AE
AR
AGMT
AU
AY
ABLD
AS
AG
AJ
APCS
AX
AM
AMEX
ATRN
ADM
AMED
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AL
ASUP
AND
ARM
ASEAN
AFFAIRS
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
AODE
APEC
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AO
ABUD
AC
ADPM
ADCO
ASIG
ARF
AUC
ASEX
AGAO
AA
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AIT
AADP
ASCH
AORL
AROC
ACOA
ANET
AID
AMCHAMS
AINF
AMG
AFU
AN
ALOW
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ACS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AGR
BEXP
BR
BM
BG
BL
BA
BTIO
BO
BP
BC
BILAT
BK
BU
BD
BRUSSELS
BB
BF
BBSR
BIDEN
BX
BE
BH
BT
BY
BMGT
BWC
BTIU
BN
CA
CASC
CFED
CO
CH
CS
CU
CE
CI
CM
CMGT
CJAN
COM
CG
CIS
CVIS
CR
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTER
CIA
CLINTON
CY
CPAS
CD
CBW
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CDG
CW
CODEL
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
COE
CN
CARICOM
CB
CONDOLEEZZA
CWC
CACS
CSW
CIDA
CIC
CITT
CONS
CL
CACM
CDB
CDC
CAN
CF
CJUS
CTM
CBSA
CARSON
CT
CLMT
CBC
CEUDA
CV
COPUOS
CTR
CROS
CAPC
CAC
CNARC
CICTE
CBE
ECON
ETRD
EIND
ENRG
EC
ELAB
EAGR
EAID
EFIS
EFIN
EINV
EUN
EG
EPET
EAIR
EU
ELTN
EWWT
ECIN
ERD
EI
ETTC
EUR
EN
EZ
ETC
ENVI
EMIN
ET
ENVR
ER
ECPS
EINT
EAP
ES
ENIV
ECONOMY
EXTERNAL
EINN
EFTA
ECONOMIC
EPA
EXBS
ECA
ELN
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENGR
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
ELECTIONS
EIAR
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
ENERG
EFIM
EAIDS
EK
ETRDECONWTOCS
EINVETC
ECONCS
EUNCH
ESA
ECINECONCS
EUREM
ESENV
EFINECONCS
ETRC
ENNP
EAIG
EXIM
EEPET
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
ERNG
ETRO
ETRN
EINVEFIN
ICTY
IN
IS
IR
IC
IZ
IA
INTERPOL
IAEA
IT
IMO
IO
IV
ID
IRAQI
IEA
INRB
IL
IWC
ITU
ICAO
ISRAELI
ICRC
IIP
IMF
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
ITALY
ITALIAN
ILO
IPR
IQ
IRS
IAHRC
IZPREL
IRAJ
IDP
ILC
ITF
ICJ
IF
ITPHUM
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
IACI
IBET
ITRA
INR
IRC
IDA
ICTR
IGAD
INRA
INRO
IEFIN
INTELSAT
INTERNAL
INDO
ITPGOV
KWMN
KSCA
KDEM
KTFN
KIPR
KCRM
KPAL
KE
KPAO
KPKO
KS
KN
KISL
KFRD
KJUS
KIRF
KFLO
KG
KTIP
KTER
KRCM
KTIA
KGHG
KIRC
KU
KPRP
KMCA
KMPI
KSEO
KNNP
KZ
KNEI
KCOR
KOMC
KCFC
KSTC
KMDR
KFLU
KSAF
KSEP
KSAC
KR
KGIC
KSUM
KWBG
KCIP
KDRG
KOLY
KAWC
KCHG
KHDP
KRVC
KBIO
KAWK
KGCC
KHLS
KBCT
KPLS
KREL
KCFE
KMFO
KV
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KVPR
KTDB
KSPR
KIDE
KVRP
KTEX
KBTR
KTRD
KICC
KCOM
KO
KLIG
KDEMAF
KMRS
KRAD
KOCI
KSTH
KUNR
KNSD
KGIT
KFSC
KHIV
KPAI
KICA
KACT
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCMR
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KNAR
KNUC
KPWR
KENV
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KPRV
KOM
KBTS
KCRS
KNPP
KWNM
KRFD
KVIR
KTBT
KAID
KRIM
KDDG
KRGY
KHSA
KWMM
KMOC
KSCI
KPAK
KX
KPAONZ
KCGC
KID
KPOA
KIFR
KFIN
KWAC
KOMS
KCRCM
KNUP
KMIG
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KJUST
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MX
MCAP
MO
MR
MI
MD
MK
MA
MP
MY
MTCRE
MOPPS
MASC
MIL
MTS
MLS
MILI
MAR
MU
MEPN
MAPP
MTCR
MEPI
MZ
MEETINGS
MG
MW
MAS
MT
MCC
MIK
ML
MARAD
MV
MERCOSUR
MTRE
MPOS
MEPP
MILITARY
MDC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MRCRE
MAPS
MEDIA
MASSMNUC
MC
NZ
NZUS
NL
NU
NATO
NP
NO
NIPP
NE
NH
NR
NA
NPT
NI
NSF
NG
NSG
NAFTA
NC
NDP
NEW
NRR
NATIONAL
NT
NS
NASA
NAR
NV
NORAD
NSSP
NK
NPA
NGO
NSC
NATOPREL
NW
NPG
NSFO
OPDC
OTRA
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OSCE
OEXC
OIE
OPRC
OAS
OPIC
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFFICIALS
OECD
OSCI
OBSP
OFDA
OPCW
ODIP
OFDP
OES
OPAD
OCII
OHUM
OVP
ON
OIC
OCS
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PINR
PTER
PARM
PREF
PM
PE
PINS
PK
PHSA
PBTS
PRGOV
PA
PORG
PP
PS
PGOF
PL
PO
PARMS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PAK
POL
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PBIO
PINF
PNG
PMIL
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PAO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PTBS
PCUL
PROP
PNAT
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PROG
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
PGOC
PY
PCI
PLN
PDOV
PREO
PGIV
PHUH
PAS
PU
POGOV
PF
PINL
POV
PAHO
PRL
PG
PRAM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POLICY
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PGGV
PHUS
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PEL
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PBT
PTERE
RS
RU
RW
RM
RO
RP
REGION
RSP
RF
RICE
RCMP
RFE
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
RUPREL
RELATIONS
ROOD
REACTION
RSO
REPORT
SENV
SNAR
SCUL
SR
SC
SOCI
SMIG
SI
SP
SU
SO
SW
SY
SA
SZ
SAN
SF
SN
STEINBERG
SG
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SAARC
SL
SEVN
SARS
SIPRS
SHUM
SANC
SWE
SHI
SYR
SNARCS
SPCE
SYRIA
SEN
SH
SCRS
SENVKGHG
TRGY
TSPL
TPHY
TSPA
TBIO
TI
TW
THPY
TX
TU
TS
TZ
TC
TH
TT
TIP
TO
TERRORISM
TRSY
TINT
TN
TURKEY
TBID
TL
TV
TNGD
TD
TF
TP
TFIN
TAGS
TK
TR
UNSC
UK
UNGA
UN
US
UNHRC
UG
UP
UNMIK
UNHCR
UE
USTR
UNVIE
UAE
UZ
UY
UNO
UNESCO
USEU
USOAS
UV
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNEP
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNDP
UNPUOS
UNC
UNAUS
USUN
UNCHC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCSD
UNDC
USNC
USPS
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06PARIS1720, FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER RICHARD: INSIGHTS ON EU
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06PARIS1720.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06PARIS1720 | 2006-03-17 15:51 | 2011-02-10 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris |
Appears in these articles: http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/documents-wikileaks/article/2011/02/09/wikileaks-les-visiteurs-de-l-ambassade_1477418_1446239.htm |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PARIS 001720
SIPDIS
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON MARR
SUBJECT: FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER RICHARD: INSIGHTS ON EU
AND NATO, AND ON DOMESTIC FRENCH POLITICS
Classified By: Ambassador Craig Stapleton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (C) In a meeting March 9, Ambassador Stapleton and former
defense minister Alain Richard exchanged views on the roles
of NATO and the ESDP, on the steady continuity in France's
defense policies under Richard's successor (current Defense
Minister Michele Aliot-Marie), and on French domestic
politics. On NATO-ESDP, Richard rehearsed familiar arguments
that NATO should restrict itself to more high-end military
operations and leave civilian-military operations to the EU.
He deplored President Chirac's involvement in domestic
political issues in Cote d'Ivoire and UN reliance on France
(and the UK) in dealing with African crises. Acknowledging
his support for former economy minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn in the 2007 presidential contest, Richard
criticized Segolene Royal for lack of substance and
discounted her support within the Socialist Party, and viewed
former PM Jospin as lacking the necessary fire in the belly.
By contrast, he predicted that Nicolas Sarkozy would obtain
the governing party's nomination but asserted that the
nervousness Sarkozy inspires in some voters could lead to the
victory of a more reassuring candidate of the left. Richard
criticized Chirac as anti-European in temperament. He
lamented President Chirac's and then-Foreign Minister de
Villepin's confrontational tactics towards the U.S. early
2003, while also underlining his fundamental agreement with
Chirac and Villepin's policy of keeping France on the
sidelines with regard to regime change and its aftermath in
Iraq. END SUMMARY.
NATO/ESDP
---------
¶2. (C) Opening with a review of differences between U.S.,
and French and European, views on the appropriate
intervention roles for NATO and the EU, Richard lamented that
NATO-EU cooperation often "seemed to resemble NATO-EU
rivalry." Consistent with the government's current policy,
Richard maintained that the real purpose of NATO should be
high-end military action, not "soft" peacekeeping and/or
humanitarian missions. He complained that the (U.S.-driven)
direction of capability development in NATO -- contingency
planning and force generation for "soft" missions -- was
gradually encroaching on EU turf, where France sees the
primary mission of the evolving European Security and Defense
Policy (ESDP). Richard worried that NATO was "expanding" in
such a way that it might eventually make ESDP superfluous.
¶3. (C) Richard argued that ESDP is unlikely to move from
debate to deployability unless EU member states step up to
making the investments required to create mission-ready
military capability. This would not happen, however, until
EU states were given more direct responsibility for dealing
with crises -- otherwise, they'll "just keep counting on the
U.S. to act and take them off the hook." Richard said that
certain changes in Europeans' operational practice could
facilitate greater assumption of responsibility by EU states,
for example the creation of multinational HQs to replace the
current national HQ setup for operations in which more than
one EU state participates, which would force EU member states
to "burdenshare responsibility for the outcomes."
CONTINUITY IN FRANCE'S DEFENSE POLICIES
---------------------------------------
¶4. (C) Richard noted that the overall direction of France's
defense and security policies had continued along the lines
set during his own tenure as defense minister (1997 - 2002).
Richard praised his successor, Michele Aliot-Marie for
"staying the course" with regard to professionalization and
ever greater readiness and deployability of France's armed
forces. He noted the bi-partisan consensus throughout
France's political establishment for these policies --
indeed, on foreign affairs and defense matters in general.
He praised Aliot-Marie for recognizing, as he had, the need
for senior officers to have international experience, and the
need to keep French troops prepared to work well in
multi-national or coalition operations.
GREATER EU CAPABILITY DOES NOT UNDERMINE NATO
--------------------------------------------
¶5. (C) Richard said that France is encouraging other EU
member states to engage in similar, qualitative and
quantitative, improvement of military capability. Richard
believes that, though there has been considerable
improvement, in France and in other EU states, in overall
military capabilities (he cited Germany in particular), much
progress could still be made. Richard underlined that such
progress in EU states' capability would never outstrip the
capabilities institutionalized in NATO, nor would such
improvements "compete with NATO" in any way. In Richard's
view -- as in the view of many French security and defense
analysts -- the range of failed state and humanitarian crises
likely to require responses that have a military dimension
will in all likelihood increase in coming years, which calls
for building as much capability as possible, whether under
the auspices of NATO or the EU or European states
individually. Note: Embassy DATT pointed out to Richard that
German military capability has in fact been cut during
recent years, and that increasing instances of operational
deployment of German contingents gives the, erroneous,
impression of increased capability. End Note.
CHIRAC'S MISTAKES IN IVORY COAST
--------------------------------
¶6. (C) Richard criticized President Chirac for breaking what
Richard opined should be a cardinal rule for guiding
decisions about French involvement in sub-Saharan Africa:
never get involved in African domestic problems; intervene
only when French strategic interests are at stake. Richard
went on to criticize the way the international community and
the UN (and specifically Kofi Annan) "depended on France"
(and to a lesser degree, the UK) to take care of problems in
Africa. Richard added that political problems in Africa "can
almost never be solved" since agreements reached to solve
them are, according to Richard, all to often immediately
ignored by the parties to them. Richard welcomed increasing
U.S. military cooperation in the region, agreeing that the
increased numbers of U.S. military attaches and other
programs (many emanating from EUCOM) would be good for the
region.
INTERNAL FRENCH POLITICS -- CENTER-LEFT PS
------------------------------------------
¶7. (C) Richard is a member of the French Socialist Party's
(PS) 306-member National Council which elects the members of
the party's National Bureau and its National Secretariat
(executive committee). A member of the party's most moderate
faction, Richard is close both to former prime minister
Lionel Jospin and former economy minister Dominique
Strauss-Kahn. Richard said that the party -- at the
instigation of party National Secretary Francois Hollande --
had erred in putting off selection of its 2007 presidential
nominee until November 2006. In Richard's view, the other
principal parties' candidates will, well before next
November, have established themselves and their messages in
the public eye. Richard said he suspected that Hollande put
off the date of the PS's nomination decision for as long as
possible in order to preserve his own chances for nomination,
based on the calculation that other would-be nominees might
well fall out of the race or that internecine struggles would
allow him to emerge as a compromise.
¶8. (C) Richard discounted, but did not dismiss, the chances
of Poitou-Charentes Region President Segolene Royal of
mounting a winning bid for the PS nomination and the
presidency thereafter. "Because you have to wonder what is
the substance -- the solidity -- of her popularity." Richard
said that he doubted that Royal's current high-standing in
opinion polls would hold, particularly through the upcoming
season of hardball campaigning. Nonetheless Richard
described Royal as both determined and skillfully aiming to
use her popularity to "impose herself on the party members"
(who will be voting for the party's nominee in November).
¶9. (C) Skewering former prime minister Laurent Fabius as
"suffering from a deficit of sincerity," Richard acknowledged
his support for Strauss-Kahn. Richard observed that the
upcoming party primary, among the PS's roughly 125,000
"aging" members (nearly half of whom are also elected
officials of one sort or another), remained a wide-open
contest. In Richard's analysis, Royal can now count on about
"10 to 15 percent of the votes," and "Fabius has between 20
and 25 percent," which "leaves the 70 percent remaining" to
be won or lost in the primary campaign, most of whom he
claimed opposed Royal. Richard said that the campaigning
among the party members would be long and tough, and that
Strauss-Kahn had been, and planned to remain -- particularly
assiduous in his courting of party members between now and
November of this year.
¶10. (C) Citing what he called "the guts factor," Richard
wondered aloud if Jospin, as much as he might want to be
drafted as the party nominee, really had the stomach for a
political fight to the finish against -- in the scenario
Richard assumed most likely -- Interior Minister Nicolas
Sarkozy. Citing Jospin's lackluster performance as a
candidate in 2002, and his sudden retirement in a pique
following his unexpected defeat in the first round of the
2002 election, Richard said he had to have doubts about
Jospin's electability. However, Richard also added that in a
face-off against Sarkozy, Jospin might well prove the more
reassuring, indeed, presidential, figure, able to capitalize
on the French electorate's fear of change, particularly
brusque change. As Richard put it, "Sarkozy has enormous
qualities -- but not the one of being reassuring to anybody."
The one thing that Richard said he was sure of is that the
PS would, in the end, unite behind the candidate who emerges
victorious, if scarred, from the party's nomination
competition.
INTERNAL FRENCH POLITICS -- CENTER-RIGHT UMP
--------------------------------------------
¶11. (C) Richard, tracking with the views of nearly every
professional politician who has commented to us on the
subject, stated bluntly that Villepin would not be able to
displace Sarkozy as the nominee of the ruling, center-right
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party. In addition,
Richard suggested that the "Matignon syndrome" -- the way the
prime ministership in France chews up its incumbents and
their popularity -- would sink any chances Villepin might
hope he may have to run for the presidency.
THE CENTER-LEFT CAN WIN
-----------------------
¶12. (C) Overall -- while being careful to concede this could
be wishful thinking on his part -- Richard said that voters'
tendency to "throw the bums out," along with their misgivings
about Sarkozy, gave the center-left a good chance of winning
in 2007. Richard added that "it was no longer possible to
say one thing during the campaign and do another once
elected" and that far-reaching change for France was
inevitable. Richard admitted that he was at a loss as to how
the PS could project itself and its candidate as standing for
"safe change" if running as the party of the status quo
against the risk of "real change" as promised and intended by
Sarkozy.
INSTITUTIONAL REFORM
------------------
¶13. (C) Richard said that the French system of government
was evolving quickly, largely due to the unintended
consequences of shortening the presidential term to five
years. According to Richard (and quite few other observers)
the Fifth Republic is moving towards a garden-variety
"presidential system." The new five-year presidential term,
with legislative elections following immediately after the
presidential elections, increases the likelihood of one party
holding both the presidency and the parliamentary majority.
Both president and parliamentary majority are likely to be
elected on the basis of a common program, with the result
that the president will become responsible for managing the
government's execution of that program.
FUTURE OF EUROPE
----------------
¶14. (C) Richard lamented the French public's rejection of
the proposed EU Constitutional treaty last May 29. He placed
part of the blame on Chirac's lukewarm commitment to Europe.
He described Villepin and Chirac as more nationalist than
European, and went on to criticize Chirac as overly
opportunistic, and lacking the consistency necessary for
forging productive, long-term relationships with France's
European partners. Richard added that Chirac had severely
damaged his credibility with the EU's new member states when
he rudely admonished them to "shut up," with regard to
France's opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Richard acknowledged that such French attitudes have served
to increase nationalism in the new member states, and added
that this nationalism, and the suspicion of Europe that goes
with it, "particularly in conservative Poland", promise
difficult times ahead for comity among the member states of
the EU.
U.S.-FRANCE RELATIONS
---------------------
¶15. (C) Richard said that even though the French political
establishment is prone to opposing the U.S., the French
public remains attracted to the U.S. Like nearly all French
political figures -- speaking to us in private on the subject
-- Richard decried "the folly" of Chirac and then Foreign
Minister de Villepin's grandstanding opposition to the U.S.
and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Richard said Chirac and
Villepin's actions may have offered a "couple of weeks of
psychic satisfaction" to the French, but at the price of
undermining France's influence and standing on the world
stage. Again, like so many French political figures who
lament the antics of Chirac and Villepin in early 2003,
Richard also insisted that he believed the U.S. made a
grievous strategic mistake in going into Iraq. Richard
underscored his respect, indeed, love, for American ideals,
and described at length his -- and his compatriots' --
admiration for the dynamism of America. He also complimented
American expertise, saying that, "on any subject, you have
the best experts -- including on Iraq." But he wondered aloud
why the U.S. had "ignored its experts and made such a big
mistake." The meeting ended with a discussion of the changes
wrought by the attacks of September 11, 2002 on American
perception of threats to U.S. security.
COMMENT
-------
¶16. (C) Fluent in English, lucid and brimming with dry wit
and good humor, Richard exuded self-confidence and
competence. His genuine attachment to the U.S. was evident,
as was his concerned perplexity with regard to why -- in
Richard's view -- the U.S. was not better prepared for Iraq.
Although Richard's comment about Sarkozy's inability to
reassure voters was on the mark, it is also true that the
Jospins and Strauss-Kahns he finds more reassuring also
belong to his own political generation. END COMMENT.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
Stapleton