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Viewing cable 09SANSALVADOR164, SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO EL SALVADOR FOR THE
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09SANSALVADOR164 | 2009-02-23 19:05 | 2011-04-06 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy San Salvador |
VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSN #0164/01 0541905
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231905Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0747
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDRUSARSO FT SAM HOUSTON TX PRIORITY
RHMFISS/USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000164
SIPDIS
CJCS FOR GENERAL CARTWRIGHT; OSD FOR A/S BENKERT; SOUTHCOM
FOR LTG SPEARS; CENTCOM FOR LTG ALLEN; U.S. ARMY SOUTH FOR
MG HUBER; SOCSOUTH FOR BG PAGAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019
TAGS: ES PM PREL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO EL SALVADOR FOR THE
OIF SERVICE RECOGNITION CEREMONY
Classified By: Charge Blau for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (SBU) The U.S. Embassy warmly welcomes your visit to El
Salvador. Your presence here will demonstrate U.S. gratitude
for Salvadoran support of OIF, as well as reinforce the
importance the U.S. places on maintaining a close,
cooperative bilateral relationship with El Salvador.
-------------------
Political Overview
-------------------
¶2. (C) El Salvador's current political landscape is largely
the result of the 1992 Peace Accords that ended the nation's
twelve-year civil war. Under the agreement, the communist
guerrillas, the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front
(FMLN), laid down their weapons and became a legitimate
political party. The government (GOES) in return agreed to
disband elements of the military and security services
notorious for human rights violations, to allow the FMLN to
participate in the political process, to reform the
judiciary, and to form a new National Civilian Police force
(PNC) drawn from the ranks of demobilized guerrillas and
former members of the armed forces. In the ensuing years,
the conservative, pro-U.S. National Republican Alliance Party
(ARENA) has won every Presidential election. Current
Salvadoran President Elias Antonio "Tony" Saca, of the
governing ARENA party, assumed office on June 1, 2004, after
winning a hard-fought presidential race with 57.7 percent of
votes cast. President Saca,s term expires May 31.
¶3. (C) You will be visiting El Salvador during a crucial
period in the electoral calendar. The country held
legislative and municipal elections on January 18, with the
leftist FMLN winning a slim plurality of the seats in the
Legislative Assembly. More importantly, El Salvador will
hold Presidential elections on March 15, with conservative,
pro-U.S. ARENA party candidate Rodrigo Avila facing off
against leftist FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes. According to
local polls, Funes holds a slight lead over Avila. (Note:
Avila twice served as director of the Salvadoran National
Civilian Police, and was Deputy Minister of Public Security
and Justice. He is respected and well-known in U.S. law
enforcement circles. End note). Funes, a former journalist
who hosted one of El Salvador's most popular television news
programs, is the first FMLN Presidential candidate who is not
a former guerrilla leader. Funes' candidacy, fueled by name
recognition, voter discontent over high crime, and the
perceived lack of shared economic benefits under ARENA
stewardship, offers the FMLN its strongest opportunity yet to
win the Salvadoran presidency.
¶4. (C) Funes and company have indicated publicly that they
will continue to cooperate with the U.S. on counter-narcotics
and transnational crime, and to support ongoing public
security endeavors such as the International Law Enforcement
Academy (ILEA) and the Comalapa Cooperative Security Location
(CSL). At the same time, however, the FMLN senior leadership
has strong links to Hugo Chavez and the rest of the
Bolivarian bloc, and appears not to have significantly
deviated from the Marxist world-view that motivated their
guerrilla insurgency in the 1980,s. FMLN Vice Presidential
candidate Sanchez Ceren is himself a former guerrilla
commander.
------------------
Economic Overview
------------------
¶5. (C) After growing by over four percent each of the last
two years, the Salvadoran economy now appears to be slowing
and may head into recession, depending on the extent of the
financial contagion from the United States. El Salvador was
the first Central American country to implement CAFTA-DR, and
exports, which have continued to increase through September
2008, remain the bright spot of the economy. Populist
policies in the run-up to 2009 elections, including costly
subsidies for electricity, propane gas, and transportation,
have led to increasing fiscal indiscipline, and the
government has recently experienced problems in placing its
short-term debt. A number of international businesses have
recently scaled back or shut down operations in El Salvador
because of worldwide economic conditions. The security
situation continues to impose a considerable operational cost
on businesses and remains a detriment to foreign direct
investment.
----------------------------
Civilian-Military Relations
----------------------------
¶6. (C) The Salvadoran Armed Forces (ESAF) are capable,
professional, and subordinate to civilian authority. The
military consistently receives high approval ratings in
public opinion polls, due largely to its response to national
disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and outbreaks
of infectious diseases such as dengue. Salvadoran soldiers
also support police in counter-narcotics efforts, anti-gang
patrols, rural patrols, customs inspections, and
reform-school training for juvenile convicts. On January 1,
2009 the Minister of Defense, MG Jorge Molina as well as Vice
MOD, VADM Marco Palacios, retired from active duty, although
President Saca has retained both in their positions. Also on
January 1, the former Army Chief of Staff, BG Oswaldo Rubio,
was promoted to MG and became the Chief of Defense, replacing
MG Mendoza, who was retired. Newly promoted BG Joaquin
Galvez assumed the Vice Chief of Defense position on January
1st as well.
¶7. (C) The ESAF continues to focus on force modernization in
a constrained budget environment. The ESAF currently has
approximately 12,000 total service members and 2,500
administrative personnel. The ESAF's funding level of USD
115 million has changed very little for several years,
representing a slightly declining percentage of the national
budget. Small increases for the ESAF in recent yearly
budgets have been obligated to a pay raise, so there is no
net increase in funds available for operations, training,
maintenance, and modernization. While El Salvador currently
receives modest FMF allocations, (2nd highest in AOR most
years and one of only two allocations in FY08), military
officials have expressed their desire for considerable
increases to help address pressing modernization needs. The
focus of our FMF expenditures is on developing host nation
capabilities in disaster relief, peacekeeping,
counterterrorism, and to counter illicit trafficking.
------------
OIF Service
------------
¶8. (U) The GOES initially deployed forces to Iraq in August
¶2003. Since then, El Salvador has deployed eleven
contingents to Iraq in support of humanitarian assistance and
reconstruction missions. The Salvadorans suffered five KIA
and over 50 wounded during their participation in coalition
operations. One Salvadoran soldier, CPL Platero, has been at
Brook Army Medical Center in Texas recovering from a severe
leg injury since October 2006 and is expected to return to El
Salvador in August 2009.
¶9. (U) The eleven Salvadoran "Cuscatlan" battalions have
overseen more than 362 humanitarian assistance projects
valued at more than USD 23 million, including the
construction of roads, schools, and medical clinics, as well
as installation of power generators and transformers.
Salvadoran troops performed admirably during their five and a
half years in Iraq. Their performance has been recognized at
various levels, to include six soldiers being awarded the
Bronze Star by former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld for
saving the life of Najaf's Coalition Provisional Authority
Provincial Coordinator and five other American Government
Officials. In May 2007, President Saca made an unannounced
visit to Iraq and personally expressed his gratitude and
pride for their tremendous contributions to the
reconstruction of Iraq. Salvadoran soldiers were intimately
involved in the training and equipping of the Iraqi Civil
Defense Forces in Najaf, Al Hillah, and Al Kut. The national
press has positively portrayed the real impact of ESAF
efforts and the gratitude of Iraqi provincial leaders.
Although public opposition to Salvadoran involvement in Iraq
at times ran as high as 70 percent, the Saca administration
and the Legislative Assembly nonetheless found a way to
extend the Salvadoran military presence in Iraq through early
¶2009. Unfortunately, their departure was a product of
misunderstandings -- they might otherwise have stayed through
June, 2009.
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Peacekeeping and International Agreements
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¶10. (C) The GOES is interested in peacekeeping opportunities,
although current ESAF budget constraints make large-scale
deployments of troops unlikely without significant external
support. In August 2008, the ESAF deployed 51 soldiers as
part of a Spanish-led contingent in support of the UN mission
in Lebanon. In February 2009 they deployed another 50-man
platoon to relieve the original unit. The ESAF is also
coordinating with the Spanish armed forces to deploy troops
to the UN mission in Bosnia.
¶11. (SBU) The UN has certified the ESAF as competent for full
participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations. Since 2005 the
USG has released funding for equipment and training for the
ESAF to take part in the Global Peacekeeping Operations
Initiative (GPOI). This would support a long-term desire of
the Conference of Central American Armed Forces (CFAC) to
deploy a combined peacekeeping unit from El Salvador,
Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua. El Salvador is not a
signatory to the International Criminal Court, but signed and
ratified Article 98 provisions to the Rome Statute with the
U.S. in 2004. In late 2006 the legislature approved a 505
Agreement for U.S.-provided assistance; the Assembly has also
approved an agreement for the protection of classified
military information and the DOD/DOS preferred global format
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).
¶12. (C) Comment: Depending on the outcome of the March 15
Presidential election, as well as the level and nature of USG
engagement, there is a reasonably strong possibility of the
ESAF agreeing to commit troops to OEF (Afghanistan) within
the next year. While the political situation will not
solidify until after the March 15 elections, it could be a
worthwhile exercise to plant the seeds for an OEF commitment
during your visit. End comment.
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Counternarcotics and Transnational Crime
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¶13. (C) El Salvador is a transit country for narcotics,
mainly cocaine and heroin. The country's geographic position
makes it vulnerable to those trafficking drugs, drug proceeds
(in the form of bulk currency shipments), people, and guns to
or from the United States. U.S.-funded training and
equipment have contributed significantly to improvements in
the National Civilian Police (PNC) Counternarcotics Division.
JIATF-South, with its ability to provide Salvadoran
authorities with real-time intelligence, is also a great
asset; however, the ESAF need additional operational
capabilities to help us take full advantage of JIATF's
contributions. Some of these Salvadoran operational
shortcomings will hopefully be addressed via Merida
Initiative funds earmarked for communications gear and
high-speed open ocean interceptors.
¶14. (SBU) The Salvadoran government is a valuable partner in
the war on drugs, and has assumed an important leadership
role in regional initiatives to improve public security in
Central America. The GOES hosts the FBI-led Transnational
Anti-gang Unit (TAG), the International Law Enforcement
Academy (ILEA), and the Comalapa Cooperative Security
Location (CSL). The GOES is an ally is efforts to curtail
transnational street gang activity, to disrupt maritime
narcotics trafficking routes, and to strengthen the rule of
law throughout the hemisphere. The current government of El
Salvador enthusiastically supports the Merida Initiative, and
continues to aggressively push the Central American
Integration System (SICA in Spanish) to implement a
comprehensive regional plan for improving public security.
¶15. (SBU) Despite their cooperative attitude, the Salvadorans
are not winning the battle against organized crime. Illegal
immigration to the U.S., coupled with deportation of illegal
aliens back to El Salvador, feeds the explosive regional
growth of transnational street gangs. Salvadoran officials
frequently infer that the country's spiraling violent crime
rates are largely the result of the U.S. deporting illegal
alien gang members back to El Salvador. But they could do
more themselves, for example pass wire tap legislation.
Additionally, enactment of a civil asset forfeiture statue
would also help to offset the significant budget shortfalls
faced by the National Civilian Police and the judicial
sector. Finally, moving forward on extradition would help to
ensure that neither the hundreds of thousands of Salvadorans
residing in the U.S. (legally and otherwise), nor fugitive
American criminals, find safe haven in El Salvador and avoid
punishment for crimes they commit.
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CSL Extension
--------------
¶16. (C) In July 2008, Embassy San Salvador delivered to the
GOES the U.S. request for an early five-year renewal of the
current CSL agreement, which expires in August 2010. On
December 17, 2008, El Salvador delivered a counterproposal to
expand the list of allowable activities to include
humanitarian assistance, counterterrorism operations, and
training and military exercises as well as authorization for
U.S. military access to additional Salvadoran bases beyond
Comalapa; in return, the U.S. would improve the capabilities
of the Salvadoran military. This proposal would provide a
new ten-year agreement. Such an agreement would have to be
approved by the Salvadoran Legislative Assembly. The GOES is
confident that it has the necessary votes. President Saca
has publicly stated his desire to ensure future operations at
Comalapa before he leaves office May 31. The USG has not yet
formally responded to the GOES counterproposal.
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Suggested Take Aways
---------------------
¶17. (C) In addition to expressing U.S. gratitude for
Salvadoran sacrifices in support of OIF, and strengthening
institutional ties with the ESAF, your visit could also serve
as a valuable opportunity to move forward on the CSL, both in
Washington and here in El Salvador. We suggest that you use
interactions with high-level GOES officials to seek closure
on a CSL extension. You could also raise the potential ESAF
commitment to OEF, should the political calculus fall into
place.
¶18. (SBU) At the same time, we must be careful to avoid any
politicization of your visit, and not impart the impression
that your attendance at the OIF commemoration ceremony is in
any way related to the upcoming Presidential elections.
BLAU