

Currently released so far... 12553 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
APECO
ASEC
AMGT
AFIN
APER
ACABQ
AORC
AEMR
AF
AE
AR
AGMT
AU
AY
ABLD
AS
AG
AJ
APCS
AX
AM
AMEX
ATRN
ADM
AMED
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AL
ASUP
AND
ARM
ASEAN
AFFAIRS
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
AODE
APEC
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AO
ABUD
AC
ADPM
ADCO
ASIG
ARF
AUC
ASEX
AGAO
AA
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AIT
AADP
ASCH
AORL
AROC
ACOA
ANET
AID
AMCHAMS
AINF
AMG
AFU
AN
ALOW
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ACS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AGR
BEXP
BR
BM
BG
BL
BA
BTIO
BO
BP
BC
BILAT
BK
BU
BD
BRUSSELS
BB
BF
BBSR
BIDEN
BX
BE
BH
BT
BY
BMGT
BWC
BTIU
BN
CA
CASC
CFED
CO
CH
CS
CU
CE
CI
CM
CMGT
CJAN
COM
CG
CIS
CVIS
CR
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTER
CIA
CLINTON
CY
CPAS
CD
CBW
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CDG
CW
CODEL
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
COE
CN
CARICOM
CB
CONDOLEEZZA
CWC
CACS
CSW
CIDA
CIC
CITT
CONS
CL
CACM
CDB
CDC
CAN
CF
CJUS
CTM
CBSA
CARSON
CT
CLMT
CBC
CEUDA
CV
COPUOS
CTR
CROS
CAPC
CAC
CNARC
CICTE
CBE
ECON
ETRD
EIND
ENRG
EC
ELAB
EAGR
EAID
EFIS
EFIN
EINV
EUN
EG
EPET
EAIR
EU
ELTN
EWWT
ECIN
ERD
EI
ETTC
EUR
EN
EZ
ETC
ENVI
EMIN
ET
ENVR
ER
ECPS
EINT
EAP
ES
ENIV
ECONOMY
EXTERNAL
EINN
EFTA
ECONOMIC
EPA
EXBS
ECA
ELN
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENGR
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
ELECTIONS
EIAR
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
ENERG
EFIM
EAIDS
EK
ETRDECONWTOCS
EINVETC
ECONCS
EUNCH
ESA
ECINECONCS
EUREM
ESENV
EFINECONCS
ETRC
ENNP
EAIG
EXIM
EEPET
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
ERNG
ETRO
ETRN
EINVEFIN
ICTY
IN
IS
IR
IC
IZ
IA
INTERPOL
IAEA
IT
IMO
IO
IV
ID
IRAQI
IEA
INRB
IL
IWC
ITU
ICAO
ISRAELI
ICRC
IIP
IMF
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
ITALY
ITALIAN
ILO
IPR
IQ
IRS
IAHRC
IZPREL
IRAJ
IDP
ILC
ITF
ICJ
IF
ITPHUM
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
IACI
IBET
ITRA
INR
IRC
IDA
ICTR
IGAD
INRA
INRO
IEFIN
INTELSAT
INTERNAL
INDO
ITPGOV
KWMN
KSCA
KDEM
KTFN
KIPR
KCRM
KPAL
KE
KPAO
KPKO
KS
KN
KISL
KFRD
KJUS
KIRF
KFLO
KG
KTIP
KTER
KRCM
KTIA
KGHG
KIRC
KU
KPRP
KMCA
KMPI
KSEO
KNNP
KZ
KNEI
KCOR
KOMC
KCFC
KSTC
KMDR
KFLU
KSAF
KSEP
KSAC
KR
KGIC
KSUM
KWBG
KCIP
KDRG
KOLY
KAWC
KCHG
KHDP
KRVC
KBIO
KAWK
KGCC
KHLS
KBCT
KPLS
KREL
KCFE
KMFO
KV
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KVPR
KTDB
KSPR
KIDE
KVRP
KTEX
KBTR
KTRD
KICC
KCOM
KO
KLIG
KDEMAF
KMRS
KRAD
KOCI
KSTH
KUNR
KNSD
KGIT
KFSC
KHIV
KPAI
KICA
KACT
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCMR
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KNAR
KNUC
KPWR
KENV
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KPRV
KOM
KBTS
KCRS
KNPP
KWNM
KRFD
KVIR
KTBT
KAID
KRIM
KDDG
KRGY
KHSA
KWMM
KMOC
KSCI
KPAK
KX
KPAONZ
KCGC
KID
KPOA
KIFR
KFIN
KWAC
KOMS
KCRCM
KNUP
KMIG
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KJUST
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MX
MCAP
MO
MR
MI
MD
MK
MA
MP
MY
MTCRE
MOPPS
MASC
MIL
MTS
MLS
MILI
MAR
MU
MEPN
MAPP
MTCR
MEPI
MZ
MEETINGS
MG
MW
MAS
MT
MCC
MIK
ML
MARAD
MV
MERCOSUR
MTRE
MPOS
MEPP
MILITARY
MDC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MRCRE
MAPS
MEDIA
MASSMNUC
MC
NZ
NZUS
NL
NU
NATO
NP
NO
NIPP
NE
NH
NR
NA
NPT
NI
NSF
NG
NSG
NAFTA
NC
NDP
NEW
NRR
NATIONAL
NT
NS
NASA
NAR
NV
NORAD
NSSP
NK
NPA
NGO
NSC
NATOPREL
NW
NPG
NSFO
OPDC
OTRA
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OSCE
OEXC
OIE
OPRC
OAS
OPIC
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFFICIALS
OECD
OSCI
OBSP
OFDA
OPCW
ODIP
OFDP
OES
OPAD
OCII
OHUM
OVP
ON
OIC
OCS
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PINR
PTER
PARM
PREF
PM
PE
PINS
PK
PHSA
PBTS
PRGOV
PA
PORG
PP
PS
PGOF
PL
PO
PARMS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PAK
POL
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PBIO
PINF
PNG
PMIL
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PAO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PTBS
PCUL
PROP
PNAT
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PROG
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
PGOC
PY
PCI
PLN
PDOV
PREO
PGIV
PHUH
PAS
PU
POGOV
PF
PINL
POV
PAHO
PRL
PG
PRAM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POLICY
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PGGV
PHUS
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PEL
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PBT
PTERE
RS
RU
RW
RM
RO
RP
REGION
RSP
RF
RICE
RCMP
RFE
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
RUPREL
RELATIONS
ROOD
REACTION
RSO
REPORT
SENV
SNAR
SCUL
SR
SC
SOCI
SMIG
SI
SP
SU
SO
SW
SY
SA
SZ
SAN
SF
SN
STEINBERG
SG
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SAARC
SL
SEVN
SARS
SIPRS
SHUM
SANC
SWE
SHI
SYR
SNARCS
SPCE
SYRIA
SEN
SH
SCRS
SENVKGHG
TRGY
TSPL
TPHY
TSPA
TBIO
TI
TW
THPY
TX
TU
TS
TZ
TC
TH
TT
TIP
TO
TERRORISM
TRSY
TINT
TN
TURKEY
TBID
TL
TV
TNGD
TD
TF
TP
TFIN
TAGS
TK
TR
UNSC
UK
UNGA
UN
US
UNHRC
UG
UP
UNMIK
UNHCR
UE
USTR
UNVIE
UAE
UZ
UY
UNO
UNESCO
USEU
USOAS
UV
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNEP
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNDP
UNPUOS
UNC
UNAUS
USUN
UNCHC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCSD
UNDC
USNC
USPS
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09BRASILIA1250, BRAZIL'S 2010 ELECTIONS: ONE YEAR OUT
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09BRASILIA1250.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09BRASILIA1250 | 2009-10-21 14:21 | 2010-12-10 09:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO6050
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1250/01 2941421
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211421Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5243
INFO RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 0031
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 8298
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 4665
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 001250
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S 2010 ELECTIONS: ONE YEAR OUT
REF: A. BRASILIA 1127
¶B. BRASILIA 905
¶C. RECIFE 66
¶D. RIO DE JANEIRO 340
¶E. SAO PAULO 551
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Lisa Kubiske for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( d).
¶1. (SBU) Summary. One year before Brazil's October 2010 national elections, Social Democratic Party (PSDB) presidential candidate Jose Serra continues to lead Labor Party (PT) hopeful Dilma Rousseff in the polls, while PMDB, Brazil's largest party, uses its bargaining leverage to maintain its advantages in parliament and in key state races. President Lula has further solidified the PT-PMDB alliance in recent weeks, but is having difficulty herding the center-left parties in his coalition, some of which are launching their own presidential candidates. The October 3 deadline for party switching and electoral reform produced a flurry of movement, including party switches by both the Foreign Minister and the Central Bank President. These moves presaged a potential forthcoming exodus of over half the ministers in Lula's cabinet by April 3, the date by which candidates must declare themselves for office; such an event would dramatically reduce Brazil's governing capacity during the campaign season. Congress will likewise lose impetus by April, increasing the need for a strong push by Lula in order to enact Pre-Salt oil exploration and other key legislative objectives considered crucial to the campaign. Observers from all sides expect the presidential race to tighten considerably as the election approaches, with the final outcome depending in large part on Lula's ability to transfer his personal popularity to Dilma while at the same time allowing her to distinguish herself from Lula as a viable presidential figure. End summary.
What's At Stake, What's to Come -------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Brazil's national elections, to be held October 3, 2010, will feature the largest number of open races for federal and state office in over a generation. In addition to the presidential race, 54 of 81 federal senate seats, all 513 federal deputy seats, all 27 governorships, and all state deputy seats will be contested. On October 3, 2009, the deadlines passed for switching parties or residences in order to run as a candidate from that party/state, and also for passing electoral reforms related to the 2010 election. This is the first of several milestones in the next twelve months, including: - April 3, 2010: Deadline for announcement of candidacy for all offices. State governors and members of the executive branch running for office, including cabinet members, must resign; - June 10: Commencement of political party nominating conventions for all offices; - July 3: Parties and candidates can start advertising on radio, television, and the internet; - July 17: The Electoral Tribune (TSE) will allocate radio and television advertising to parties; - September 13: TSE must confirm the correct functioning of vote machines; - October 3: Election Day, First Round; - October 31: Election Day, Second Round. A second and final round is held when the leading candidate for a given office receives less than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. Only the top two candidates are eligible to compete.
One-Year Deadline -----------------
¶3. (C) In the two weeks leading to the October 3 deadline, five senators and at least 33 federal deputies switched parties. The high number of party switches reflects the non-ideological nature of Brazilian politics and is standard operating practice here among officials seeing greater opportunity elsewhere. (During an October 6 Embassy meeting with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Eduardo Azeredo, Sao Paulo Deputy William Woo cheerfully entered midway through and, despite having left Azeredo's PSDB for PPS the previous week, was well received by the Chairman.) The PSDB, which picked up three senate seats and several deputy seats, was the biggest winner in the shuffle, while PMDB and DEM, the second largest opposition party, both suffered significant losses. Small parties fared surprisingly well, especially the opposition PSC. House Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Severiano Alves switched from PDT to PMDB (both parties within the governing coalition) and left Congress altogether in order to prepare BRASILIA 00001250 002 OF 004 for a run as Vice-Governor in his home state of Bahia. Damiao Feliciano, also PDT and from the northeastern state of Paraiba, took over October 8 as Committee Chairman.
¶4. (C) While most switchers are relatively obscure figures, two high-profile ministers switched parties while a presidential candidate changed residence. After much speculation, Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles announced his move from non-aligned to PMDB, where he is expected to run for Senate from Goias state, but might run instead for Governor. Embassy sources, including Sen. Romero Juca (PMDB-RO), have told us that Meirelles' transfer confirms rumors that he is also a top-tier potential vice-presidential candidate for Dilma. (It is broadly expected that PMDB will get the Vice slot on Dilma's ticket, with Chamber of Deputies President Michel Temer most often named as the leading contender.) Foreign Minister Celso Amorim officially switched from PMDB to PT, but there are no indications at this point that he will step down to run for office in his home state of Rio de Janeiro. Finally, Ciro Gomes switched his residence from the northeastern state of Ceara to his birth state, Sao Paulo, in a move that allows him to both run for President on the PSB ticket and, potentially, to switch gears to run for Governor of Sao Paulo if his presidential campaign falters. See ref C for more on Gomes.
Election Law, Internet and the Media ------------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) President Lula also signed on September 29 the law that will define the rules for the 2010 elections. The more interesting changes include rules to permit campaign contributions and electioneering via the internet, to increase participation of minor candidates in television/radio debates, and to introduce absentee voting. Many here believe, as the chief PSDB-affiliated advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee told poloff recently, that PT is better prepared to take advantage of rule changes liberating the use of media and the internet but that his party and several others will catch up in time. The new legislation has been widely panned by Embassy contacts -- including some senators who voted for the law -- for actually reducing federal oversight over party campaign activities and expenditures. Although the deadline for electoral reform has passed, a petition drive has gathered enough signatures to authorize Congress through June 5 to pass legislation to prohibit candidates convicted of crimes to run for office. It is unclear whether PMDB leadership, which has taken the lead in opposing such legislation, will allow such a bill to pass.
Ministerial Exodus, Congressional Paralysis -------------------------------------------
¶6. (C) Both Congress and the ministries will be in a hurry to produce as many electoral deliverables as possible before the April 3 deadline for declaring candidacies. Ministers who declare are required to step down for their positions, which means that no minister has officially declared his or her candidacy at this point -- even those who are already actively campaigning. Media and Embassy sources suggest that over half of Lula's 37-member candidate will run for office, most notably Chief-Minister Dilma Rousseff and Meirelles, but also the Ministers of Justice, Energy, Social Security, Education, Environment, Planning, Labor, Communications, Agriculture and several others. It is still unclear when ministers will declare their candidacies and depart their ministries, but recent media reports indicate that Dilma will officially launch her presidential bid at the PT Annual Convention, which takes place February 18-21. In Meirelles' case, Dep. Antonio Carlos Magalhaes Neto (DEM-BA) told poloff on October 9 that Meirelles will not announce the office he will run for until a week before the deadline because "Lula needs to keep him in his current position as long as possible." Other ministers, he said, will be free to announce earlier.
¶7. (C) Congress will also be under pressure for progress before the campaign starts in earnest, particularly on the Pre-Salt oil exploration legislation, but also on a range of minor social assistance and education initiatives expected to be launched shortly. The governing coalition still holds a strong position in the Chamber of Deputies but the recent round of party switches complicates matters for Lula in the Senate, where his coalition officially suffered a net loss of three seats but unofficially two more. Sen. Arthur Virgilio (PSDB-AM), the leader of his party in the Senate, outlined for poloff on October 7 member-by-member how this would affect the President's ability to pass the legislation he desires. Virgilio counted only 40 firm votes for the governing coalition on key party-line matters, and pointed out specific coalition members likely to jump ship on key issues, including Venezuela's accession to Mercosul -- which he said did not currently have the votes to pass either the Foreign Relations Committee or the full Senate due to worries about Hugo Chavez. Virgilio also emphasized that Dilma needs to maintain her viability in the oil-producing states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Espirito Santo, as do the seven senators from those states belonging to coalition parties. This will make it very difficult to pass Pre-Salt legislation with the distribution of royalties scheme that Lula and Dilma would prefer.
Prospectus: President ---------------------
¶8. (SBU) Dilma will need signature accomplishments in Congress to raise her presidential profile to compete with Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra (PSDB), the front-runner for the Presidency. Serra is pulling 36 to 43 percent in recent polls, roughly 20 points ahead of Dilma, who has seen her support on the left eroded by PSB candidate Ciro Gomes and PV candidate Marina Silva, both of whom are polling nearly even with Dilma. Heloisa Helena (PSoL), though barely visible in the news for months and possibly not even running, also polls around 10 percent. Serra has benefitted immensely from the negative publicity created by PT's marriage of convenience with the PMDB (ref A). Also, Dilma's perceived lack of charisma makes her, in the words of Sen. Azeredo (PSDB), "the perfect opponent" for Serra because she is unable to take advantage of Serra's own lack of personal magnetism. The difficulty for Serra, who enjoyed a similarly strong early lead when running for President in 2002, will be to translate the support from his base to other parts of the country and to lower income brackets. Recent state polls indicate that Serra's support tops 50 percent in Sao Paulo and nearly so in the three states to the south, but falls to the 10-25 percent range everywhere else, including Rio and Brasilia. Many PSDB leaders are pushing reluctant Minas Gerais Governor Aecio Neves (ref D & E), who would rather be President himself or perhaps President of the Senate, to accept the vice-presidency to shore up support from his large state and potentially put an all-PSDB ticket over the top.
¶9. (SBU) Observers from all sides acknowledge that, barring a major health crisis for Dilma or Serra, the "x factor" in this campaign will happen in the final weeks, when Lula's undereducated base in the northeast starts to pay attention to the race. In a country where less than ten percent of voters belong to a political party but voting is mandatory and voter participation rates run in the high 90s, final election results do not reflect the early polls. The advisor to a prominent opposition parliamentarian from Pernambuco told poloff that he expects Serra to win the first round, but expects Dilma to rise dramatically in the last week out of voter loyalty to Lula. In the second round, he worries, "If they add up the votes of all four of them (Dilma, Ciro, Marina, Helena), they win." Another opposition party advisor from the Northeast told poloff to watch out for Ciro, whom he characterized as "the only person who can beat Serra, even if he doesn't win himself." Ciro has lately been playing an attack dog role in the campaign against Serra, while Dilma and Serra have been reluctant to engage one another directly.
Prospectus: Parliament and Governors ------------------------------------
¶10. (C) Governor, Senate, Federal Deputy, and State Deputy races in each state will be heavily influenced by the needs of the leading parties in the Presidential race. The key dynamic to watch will be between PMDB, which wants to retain its position as the party with the most seats in all four categories, and PT, which is under pressure to throw support behind PMDB candidates in order to shore up support for Dilma's presidential bid. With few candidates officially declared, it is too early to predict how these races will go, but the general consensus in Brasilia is that PSDB stock is rising and PMDB falling at the federal level. The PMDB already lost two senators and ten deputies in party-switching season, and legislators are increasingly confident that PMDB will lose its pre-eminent position at the federal level. In a reference to the damage done by the recent scandal involving Senate President Jose Sarney, Sen. Virgilio told poloff, "Thanks to Sarney, PMDB is about to become a state-level party." A PT-affiliated Senate advisor told us much the same, but believed that PT and smaller parties within the governing coalition, rather than the opposition, would gain at PMDB expense. At the state level, PMDB remains in solid position to retain or increase its governorships, with strong candidates in key states such as Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais (PSDB-held), and Bahia (PT-held).
Comment: Stay Tuned! --------------------
¶11. (C) While Brazil's 20l0 national elections appear to be moving toward a PT-PSDB presidential showdown, with Serra leading and Dilma expected to make up ground toward the end, it will be months before dependable outlines of the election environment take shape. The first few months of 2010 will bring focus, as candidates officially declare, state-level alliances with national implications further crystallize, and ministers depart their posts. The late 2009-early 2010 dynamic between Congress and Lula, who will be in a hurry to pass legislation ranging from Pre-Salt to social program reform to Mercosul accession, may bring to the forefront policy differences in an election race that has thus far been about personalities and image. Even if policy issues do not grow in importance, the debates will indicate how the two major coalitions, if elected, could address issues of interest to the United States. End comment.
KUBISKE