

Currently released so far... 12553 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
APECO
ASEC
AMGT
AFIN
APER
ACABQ
AORC
AEMR
AF
AE
AR
AGMT
AU
AY
ABLD
AS
AG
AJ
APCS
AX
AM
AMEX
ATRN
ADM
AMED
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AL
ASUP
AND
ARM
ASEAN
AFFAIRS
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
AODE
APEC
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AO
ABUD
AC
ADPM
ADCO
ASIG
ARF
AUC
ASEX
AGAO
AA
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AIT
AADP
ASCH
AORL
AROC
ACOA
ANET
AID
AMCHAMS
AINF
AMG
AFU
AN
ALOW
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ACS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AGR
BEXP
BR
BM
BG
BL
BA
BTIO
BO
BP
BC
BILAT
BK
BU
BD
BRUSSELS
BB
BF
BBSR
BIDEN
BX
BE
BH
BT
BY
BMGT
BWC
BTIU
BN
CA
CASC
CFED
CO
CH
CS
CU
CE
CI
CM
CMGT
CJAN
COM
CG
CIS
CVIS
CR
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTER
CIA
CLINTON
CY
CPAS
CD
CBW
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CDG
CW
CODEL
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
COE
CN
CARICOM
CB
CONDOLEEZZA
CWC
CACS
CSW
CIDA
CIC
CITT
CONS
CL
CACM
CDB
CDC
CAN
CF
CJUS
CTM
CBSA
CARSON
CT
CLMT
CBC
CEUDA
CV
COPUOS
CTR
CROS
CAPC
CAC
CNARC
CICTE
CBE
ECON
ETRD
EIND
ENRG
EC
ELAB
EAGR
EAID
EFIS
EFIN
EINV
EUN
EG
EPET
EAIR
EU
ELTN
EWWT
ECIN
ERD
EI
ETTC
EUR
EN
EZ
ETC
ENVI
EMIN
ET
ENVR
ER
ECPS
EINT
EAP
ES
ENIV
ECONOMY
EXTERNAL
EINN
EFTA
ECONOMIC
EPA
EXBS
ECA
ELN
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENGR
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
ELECTIONS
EIAR
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
ENERG
EFIM
EAIDS
EK
ETRDECONWTOCS
EINVETC
ECONCS
EUNCH
ESA
ECINECONCS
EUREM
ESENV
EFINECONCS
ETRC
ENNP
EAIG
EXIM
EEPET
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
ERNG
ETRO
ETRN
EINVEFIN
ICTY
IN
IS
IR
IC
IZ
IA
INTERPOL
IAEA
IT
IMO
IO
IV
ID
IRAQI
IEA
INRB
IL
IWC
ITU
ICAO
ISRAELI
ICRC
IIP
IMF
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
ITALY
ITALIAN
ILO
IPR
IQ
IRS
IAHRC
IZPREL
IRAJ
IDP
ILC
ITF
ICJ
IF
ITPHUM
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
IACI
IBET
ITRA
INR
IRC
IDA
ICTR
IGAD
INRA
INRO
IEFIN
INTELSAT
INTERNAL
INDO
ITPGOV
KWMN
KSCA
KDEM
KTFN
KIPR
KCRM
KPAL
KE
KPAO
KPKO
KS
KN
KISL
KFRD
KJUS
KIRF
KFLO
KG
KTIP
KTER
KRCM
KTIA
KGHG
KIRC
KU
KPRP
KMCA
KMPI
KSEO
KNNP
KZ
KNEI
KCOR
KOMC
KCFC
KSTC
KMDR
KFLU
KSAF
KSEP
KSAC
KR
KGIC
KSUM
KWBG
KCIP
KDRG
KOLY
KAWC
KCHG
KHDP
KRVC
KBIO
KAWK
KGCC
KHLS
KBCT
KPLS
KREL
KCFE
KMFO
KV
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KVPR
KTDB
KSPR
KIDE
KVRP
KTEX
KBTR
KTRD
KICC
KCOM
KO
KLIG
KDEMAF
KMRS
KRAD
KOCI
KSTH
KUNR
KNSD
KGIT
KFSC
KHIV
KPAI
KICA
KACT
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCMR
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KNAR
KNUC
KPWR
KENV
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KPRV
KOM
KBTS
KCRS
KNPP
KWNM
KRFD
KVIR
KTBT
KAID
KRIM
KDDG
KRGY
KHSA
KWMM
KMOC
KSCI
KPAK
KX
KPAONZ
KCGC
KID
KPOA
KIFR
KFIN
KWAC
KOMS
KCRCM
KNUP
KMIG
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KJUST
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MX
MCAP
MO
MR
MI
MD
MK
MA
MP
MY
MTCRE
MOPPS
MASC
MIL
MTS
MLS
MILI
MAR
MU
MEPN
MAPP
MTCR
MEPI
MZ
MEETINGS
MG
MW
MAS
MT
MCC
MIK
ML
MARAD
MV
MERCOSUR
MTRE
MPOS
MEPP
MILITARY
MDC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MRCRE
MAPS
MEDIA
MASSMNUC
MC
NZ
NZUS
NL
NU
NATO
NP
NO
NIPP
NE
NH
NR
NA
NPT
NI
NSF
NG
NSG
NAFTA
NC
NDP
NEW
NRR
NATIONAL
NT
NS
NASA
NAR
NV
NORAD
NSSP
NK
NPA
NGO
NSC
NATOPREL
NW
NPG
NSFO
OPDC
OTRA
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OSCE
OEXC
OIE
OPRC
OAS
OPIC
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFFICIALS
OECD
OSCI
OBSP
OFDA
OPCW
ODIP
OFDP
OES
OPAD
OCII
OHUM
OVP
ON
OIC
OCS
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PINR
PTER
PARM
PREF
PM
PE
PINS
PK
PHSA
PBTS
PRGOV
PA
PORG
PP
PS
PGOF
PL
PO
PARMS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PAK
POL
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PBIO
PINF
PNG
PMIL
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PAO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PTBS
PCUL
PROP
PNAT
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PROG
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
PGOC
PY
PCI
PLN
PDOV
PREO
PGIV
PHUH
PAS
PU
POGOV
PF
PINL
POV
PAHO
PRL
PG
PRAM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POLICY
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PGGV
PHUS
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PEL
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PBT
PTERE
RS
RU
RW
RM
RO
RP
REGION
RSP
RF
RICE
RCMP
RFE
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
RUPREL
RELATIONS
ROOD
REACTION
RSO
REPORT
SENV
SNAR
SCUL
SR
SC
SOCI
SMIG
SI
SP
SU
SO
SW
SY
SA
SZ
SAN
SF
SN
STEINBERG
SG
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SAARC
SL
SEVN
SARS
SIPRS
SHUM
SANC
SWE
SHI
SYR
SNARCS
SPCE
SYRIA
SEN
SH
SCRS
SENVKGHG
TRGY
TSPL
TPHY
TSPA
TBIO
TI
TW
THPY
TX
TU
TS
TZ
TC
TH
TT
TIP
TO
TERRORISM
TRSY
TINT
TN
TURKEY
TBID
TL
TV
TNGD
TD
TF
TP
TFIN
TAGS
TK
TR
UNSC
UK
UNGA
UN
US
UNHRC
UG
UP
UNMIK
UNHCR
UE
USTR
UNVIE
UAE
UZ
UY
UNO
UNESCO
USEU
USOAS
UV
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNEP
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNDP
UNPUOS
UNC
UNAUS
USUN
UNCHC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCSD
UNDC
USNC
USPS
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO968,
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06SAOPAULO968.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06SAOPAULO968 | 2006-09-06 13:11 | 2011-03-05 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Sao Paulo |
VZCZCXRO2492
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0968/01 2491311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061311Z SEP 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5733
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6795
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2761
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2446
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2148
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1863
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 3008
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7413
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3121
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000968
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
STATE PASS EXIMBANK
STATE PASS OPIC FOR MORONESE, RIVERA, MERVENNE
NSC FOR FEARS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID/W FOR LAC/AA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON BR
¶1. SUMMARY: Marcia Cavallari Nunes, Executive Director of the prestigious "IBOPE" polling firm, believes opposition candidate Geraldo Alckmin still has a chance to deny President Lula a first-round electoral victory, but that it would require an unpredictable combination of events between now and October 1. She attributed Alckmin's failure to connect with the electorate to his ponderous, deliberate speaking style and complex parsing of issues, which voters have no patience for. If he decides to go on the attack against Lula, as many of his supporters have been urging him to do, he needs to do so carefully, as polls show voters often resent and react against negative campaigning. Cavallari noted the manner in which Lula has distanced his campaign from that of his Workers' Party (PT) and predicted that the PT will suffer losses in Congressional elections, while the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) will gain seats and exercise considerable influence both in Congress and in a second Lula administration. Assuming he is re-elected, she said Lula may be able to enact some form of tax reform and industrial relations reform, both of which would bring tangible benefits to voters, but, despite his campaign promises, doubted he would be able to bring about political reform due to entrenched interests and a lack of consensus among the political class. END SUMMARY.
¶2. A series of recent polls show President Lula holding steady and even slightly increasing his numbers and suggest that if the election were held today, he would win in a first round with a little more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast. The recent IBOPE (Brazilian Institute for Public Opinion and Education) poll also reported increasing levels of voter alienation; 57 percent indicated they would probably not vote were it not required by law. (NOTE: While voting is mandatory, some voters stay away from the polls regardless, and others simply submit blank or "spoiled" ballots.) Cavallari cited a number of reasons: Elections in the past were often enlivened by the PT's strong militancy; now, however, after four years at the helm of the federal government, and still reeling from the political corruption scandal that costs it much of its leadership, the PT is increasingly viewed by voters as just another party like all the others, no longer inspiring either enthusiastic support or passionate opposition. The fact that 20 of 27 gubernatorial races involve incumbents running for re-election, many of them poised to win in the first round, is another cause of voter apathy.
--------------------------------
ALCKMIN CAN STILL TURN IT AROUND --------------------------------
¶3. Nevertheless, Cavallari believes many voters remain engaged and interested, and that Alckmin still has time to improve his performance enough to deny Lula a first-round victory and force a runoff. Enough undecided voters, and voters whose current support for Lula is tepid and subject to change, are still out there to be tapped by Alckmin under the right circumstances. Given that economic issues are such a strong determinant of voter preferences and that Lula's strong position in the polls is based substantially on a general satisfaction with the economy, any economic bad news that affects a large number of people or undermines confidence could still hurt Lula. The recently announced layoffs at Volkswagen in Sao Bernardo do Campo(which the company subsequently rescinded) and newly released economic figures showing lower GDP growth than anticipated, while in themselves not sufficient, are examples of events that might provoke some voters to change their minds. New evidence of corruption on Lula's part, should it emerge, could also diminish his lead, but Cavallari cautioned that most voters are tired of the scandals, and the only thing likely to rouse their indignation would be evidence of theft of public funds for personal gain.
¶4. Cavallari attributed Alckmin's failure thus far to connect with voters to his bland personal style and manner of communication. Because he addresses issues in such a measured, deliberate manner, full of pauses, many observers perceive his message as programmed or canned (though, ironically, it isn't; this is simply the way he talks). In contrast, Lula's spontaneous, relaxed style goes down well even with voters who disagree with the substance of his
SAO PAULO 00000968 002 OF 003
message. For this reason, Cavallari continued, when the scandal broke in mid-2005 and was laid at his doorstep, important elements of the public were inclined to protect him and even make excuses for him. This, combined with the opposition's possibly fatal error of not knocking him out while they had him on the ropes, enabled him to survive, and after a difficult period he was able in January to begin a recovery that surprised many. This apparent spontaneity, however, carries risks of his own; on several occasions, Lula has committed gaffes or made inaccurate, possibly even dishonest, assertions which have made him look bad; too many more of those in the last month of the campaign could also damage him in the polls and make him look less unbeatable. Observers have commented on Lula's lack of a "self-censorship" mechanism.
---------------------------
TO ATTACK OR NOT TO ATTACK?
---------------------------
¶5. Up to now, Cavallari noted, Alckmin has avoided attacking Lula directly, both because it is incompatible with his personal style and because he fears it might backfire on him. However, as he continues to trail and as time runs short, more and more of his supporters are urging him to take the gloves off. Any attempt to attack Lula on ethical grounds, however, needs to be carefully planned and mixed with more positive messages, because many lower-class people identify with Lula and many voters are alienated by negative campaigning. (NOTE: During the week of August 28, Alckmin's speeches and those of his supporters were more combative in tone, and his television advertising, which up to now had focused on his biography and accomplishments, made explicit references to the scandals that have plagued the Lula administration. One PSDB insider told us privately that he expected this more aggressive approach to increase in intensity over the next few weeks, while at the same time the PSDB would release, piece by piece, its detailed government program and contrast it with the PT's government program, which was published August 29. END NOTE.)
------------------------------------------
CHALLENGES IN A SECOND LULA ADMINISTRATION
------------------------------------------
¶6. Cavallari commented on the way Lula has campaigned almost without reference to the PT, which was such a visible part of all his previous campaigns. He evidently believes -- rightly -- that the party is damaged goods, more a hindrance than a help in attracting votes, and he has done little or nothing to help PT gubernatorial or congressional candidates. The resulting lack of coattails, combined with the party's already damaged reputation, will hurt the party in the Congressional races, she said. The PT will almost inevitably elect fewer than its current 81 Federal Deputies; the only question is how bad a loss it will suffer. The PMDB, on the other hand, is on track to elect as many as 15 Governors, and its strength in so many states will propel it to an increase over its current total of 79 Deputies. (Some observers believe it will win up to 100 seats.) Alckmin's PSDB will also likely lose some seats, further strengthening the PMDB's position. This will complicate Lula's task of governing. He can appoint PMDB members to Cabinet and other important positions (as he has indicated a willingness to do), but even so, he will have a difficult time garnering the fragmented party's united support for his initiatives. As many smaller parties lose their viability as a result of failing to meet the five percent threshold mandated by the "Barrier Clause" in effect for the first time this year, a key question will be where their elected members migrate to and what dynamic emerges in a new Chamber and Senate composed of only about seven political parties as opposed to the current 15-17. 7. In this new setting, Cavallari predicted that Lula may be able to push through some limited tax reform or industrial relations reform, but that the political reform he has promised will be very difficult to achieve, because there exists little consensus as to what it should encompass. (NOTE: Curiously, Lula's government program does not even mention tax reform or social security reform. END NOTE.)
SAO PAULO 00000968 003 OF 003
------- COMMENT -------
¶8. While Alckmin's supporters have pinned their hopes on the subsidized television advertising (which began August 15), polls indicate that a large portion of the electorate is not even watching, and that so far it is not changing voters' preferences. It will be interesting to see if this remains the case as Alckmin's ads attempt to target Lula more directly. END COMMENT.
¶9. This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia.
MCMULLEN