

Currently released so far... 12553 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
APECO
ASEC
AMGT
AFIN
APER
ACABQ
AORC
AEMR
AF
AE
AR
AGMT
AU
AY
ABLD
AS
AG
AJ
APCS
AX
AM
AMEX
ATRN
ADM
AMED
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AL
ASUP
AND
ARM
ASEAN
AFFAIRS
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
AODE
APEC
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AO
ABUD
AC
ADPM
ADCO
ASIG
ARF
AUC
ASEX
AGAO
AA
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AIT
AADP
ASCH
AORL
AROC
ACOA
ANET
AID
AMCHAMS
AINF
AMG
AFU
AN
ALOW
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ACS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AGR
BEXP
BR
BM
BG
BL
BA
BTIO
BO
BP
BC
BILAT
BK
BU
BD
BRUSSELS
BB
BF
BBSR
BIDEN
BX
BE
BH
BT
BY
BMGT
BWC
BTIU
BN
CA
CASC
CFED
CO
CH
CS
CU
CE
CI
CM
CMGT
CJAN
COM
CG
CIS
CVIS
CR
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTER
CIA
CLINTON
CY
CPAS
CD
CBW
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CDG
CW
CODEL
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
COE
CN
CARICOM
CB
CONDOLEEZZA
CWC
CACS
CSW
CIDA
CIC
CITT
CONS
CL
CACM
CDB
CDC
CAN
CF
CJUS
CTM
CBSA
CARSON
CT
CLMT
CBC
CEUDA
CV
COPUOS
CTR
CROS
CAPC
CAC
CNARC
CICTE
CBE
ECON
ETRD
EIND
ENRG
EC
ELAB
EAGR
EAID
EFIS
EFIN
EINV
EUN
EG
EPET
EAIR
EU
ELTN
EWWT
ECIN
ERD
EI
ETTC
EUR
EN
EZ
ETC
ENVI
EMIN
ET
ENVR
ER
ECPS
EINT
EAP
ES
ENIV
ECONOMY
EXTERNAL
EINN
EFTA
ECONOMIC
EPA
EXBS
ECA
ELN
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENGR
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
ELECTIONS
EIAR
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
ENERG
EFIM
EAIDS
EK
ETRDECONWTOCS
EINVETC
ECONCS
EUNCH
ESA
ECINECONCS
EUREM
ESENV
EFINECONCS
ETRC
ENNP
EAIG
EXIM
EEPET
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
ERNG
ETRO
ETRN
EINVEFIN
ICTY
IN
IS
IR
IC
IZ
IA
INTERPOL
IAEA
IT
IMO
IO
IV
ID
IRAQI
IEA
INRB
IL
IWC
ITU
ICAO
ISRAELI
ICRC
IIP
IMF
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
ITALY
ITALIAN
ILO
IPR
IQ
IRS
IAHRC
IZPREL
IRAJ
IDP
ILC
ITF
ICJ
IF
ITPHUM
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
IACI
IBET
ITRA
INR
IRC
IDA
ICTR
IGAD
INRA
INRO
IEFIN
INTELSAT
INTERNAL
INDO
ITPGOV
KWMN
KSCA
KDEM
KTFN
KIPR
KCRM
KPAL
KE
KPAO
KPKO
KS
KN
KISL
KFRD
KJUS
KIRF
KFLO
KG
KTIP
KTER
KRCM
KTIA
KGHG
KIRC
KU
KPRP
KMCA
KMPI
KSEO
KNNP
KZ
KNEI
KCOR
KOMC
KCFC
KSTC
KMDR
KFLU
KSAF
KSEP
KSAC
KR
KGIC
KSUM
KWBG
KCIP
KDRG
KOLY
KAWC
KCHG
KHDP
KRVC
KBIO
KAWK
KGCC
KHLS
KBCT
KPLS
KREL
KCFE
KMFO
KV
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KVPR
KTDB
KSPR
KIDE
KVRP
KTEX
KBTR
KTRD
KICC
KCOM
KO
KLIG
KDEMAF
KMRS
KRAD
KOCI
KSTH
KUNR
KNSD
KGIT
KFSC
KHIV
KPAI
KICA
KACT
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCMR
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KNAR
KNUC
KPWR
KENV
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KPRV
KOM
KBTS
KCRS
KNPP
KWNM
KRFD
KVIR
KTBT
KAID
KRIM
KDDG
KRGY
KHSA
KWMM
KMOC
KSCI
KPAK
KX
KPAONZ
KCGC
KID
KPOA
KIFR
KFIN
KWAC
KOMS
KCRCM
KNUP
KMIG
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KJUST
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MX
MCAP
MO
MR
MI
MD
MK
MA
MP
MY
MTCRE
MOPPS
MASC
MIL
MTS
MLS
MILI
MAR
MU
MEPN
MAPP
MTCR
MEPI
MZ
MEETINGS
MG
MW
MAS
MT
MCC
MIK
ML
MARAD
MV
MERCOSUR
MTRE
MPOS
MEPP
MILITARY
MDC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MRCRE
MAPS
MEDIA
MASSMNUC
MC
NZ
NZUS
NL
NU
NATO
NP
NO
NIPP
NE
NH
NR
NA
NPT
NI
NSF
NG
NSG
NAFTA
NC
NDP
NEW
NRR
NATIONAL
NT
NS
NASA
NAR
NV
NORAD
NSSP
NK
NPA
NGO
NSC
NATOPREL
NW
NPG
NSFO
OPDC
OTRA
OIIP
OREP
OVIP
OSCE
OEXC
OIE
OPRC
OAS
OPIC
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFFICIALS
OECD
OSCI
OBSP
OFDA
OPCW
ODIP
OFDP
OES
OPAD
OCII
OHUM
OVP
ON
OIC
OCS
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PINR
PTER
PARM
PREF
PM
PE
PINS
PK
PHSA
PBTS
PRGOV
PA
PORG
PP
PS
PGOF
PL
PO
PARMS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PAK
POL
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PBIO
PINF
PNG
PMIL
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PAO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PTBS
PCUL
PROP
PNAT
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PROG
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
PGOC
PY
PCI
PLN
PDOV
PREO
PGIV
PHUH
PAS
PU
POGOV
PF
PINL
POV
PAHO
PRL
PG
PRAM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POLICY
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PGGV
PHUS
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PEL
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PBT
PTERE
RS
RU
RW
RM
RO
RP
REGION
RSP
RF
RICE
RCMP
RFE
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
RUPREL
RELATIONS
ROOD
REACTION
RSO
REPORT
SENV
SNAR
SCUL
SR
SC
SOCI
SMIG
SI
SP
SU
SO
SW
SY
SA
SZ
SAN
SF
SN
STEINBERG
SG
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SAARC
SL
SEVN
SARS
SIPRS
SHUM
SANC
SWE
SHI
SYR
SNARCS
SPCE
SYRIA
SEN
SH
SCRS
SENVKGHG
TRGY
TSPL
TPHY
TSPA
TBIO
TI
TW
THPY
TX
TU
TS
TZ
TC
TH
TT
TIP
TO
TERRORISM
TRSY
TINT
TN
TURKEY
TBID
TL
TV
TNGD
TD
TF
TP
TFIN
TAGS
TK
TR
UNSC
UK
UNGA
UN
US
UNHRC
UG
UP
UNMIK
UNHCR
UE
USTR
UNVIE
UAE
UZ
UY
UNO
UNESCO
USEU
USOAS
UV
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNEP
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNDP
UNPUOS
UNC
UNAUS
USUN
UNCHC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCSD
UNDC
USNC
USPS
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 05OTTAWA375, CANADA'S BUDGET: MINORITY STATUS NOT EXPECTED TO
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #05OTTAWA375.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05OTTAWA375 | 2005-02-07 22:23 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 000375
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SENSITIVE
DEPARTMENT FOR EB/IFD, EB/OMA, WHA/EPSC, AND WHA/CAN
STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOR CHUGH
STATE PASS SEC FOR JACOBS
TREASURY FOR DAVID NAGOSKI AND WILBUR MONROE
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CANADA'S BUDGET: MINORITY STATUS NOT EXPECTED TO
DERAIL THE LIBERALS
REF: A. OTTAWA 336 (OFFSHORE REVENUES)
¶B. 04 OTTAWA 2560 (HEALTH CARE)
¶C. 04 OTTAWA 2779 (2004 SURPLUS)
¶D. 04 OTTAWA 832 (2004 BUDGET)
¶1. (SBU/noforn) Summary: This year's budget could be a
brawl. The budget vote is the only absolute confidence vote
that Paul Martin's government will face in the short term and
debate is expected to be vigorous. Finance Minister Goodale
plans to present the budget to Parliament on February 23. It
will be PM Paul Martin's second budget since assuming office
and his first as leader of a minority government. We
estimate that it will reflect pre-election positioning and
contain funding for foreign policy initiatives from the
yet-to-be-revealed International Policy Statement (or Review)
that has been the subject of contentious inter-agency
negotiating for over a year. We are told to expect additional
allocations for security, the financial sector and
environmental issues, "but nothing major."
¶2. (SBU/noforn) For the past decade, the Liberal majority
could count on the budget being approved by parliament
without any changes and with minimal debate. However, this
year opposition parties are demanding that their new status
be recognized and complain that they are not being adequately
consulted. Department of Finance officials find themselves
in the new position of reaching out to opposition members and
to newly-empowered Liberal party back-benchers. However, the
broad consultations seem intended less to find consensus and
more to bullet-proof the Liberal's budget from opposition
attack. The finance critics of the two largest opposition
parties tell us that although they intend to push as hard as
they can, they have no interest in bringing down the
government over this budget. Parties are staking their turf
for the next election and policy makers at Finance appear to
welcome the coming confrontation, saying, with gleaming eyes,
"If the opposition parties want to present a budget, they
should win an election." End summary.
Another boom year - Surplus and Frugality
-----------------------------------------
¶3. (U) The surplus is on track to be even larger than last
year's C$9 billion (about US$7 billion). Forecasts of this
year's surplus have increased from C$4 billion in the 2004
budget to almost C$9 billion by last November, and are still
growing. Despite some weakness in the real economy, revenues
for the current year (2004-05) are holding up and
expenditures are as projected in last year's budget. This
provides a fiscal cushion for the government's recent
negotiations with the provinces on health care spending,
federal provincial transfers ("equalization payments"), and
revenue sharing for offshore resources (refs A and B). The
accuracy of the government's fiscal forecasts has been a
contentious issue (last year's surplus exceeded GOC forecasts
by about C$7 billion (ref C), but even the opposition finance
critics now admits efforts to refine the forecasting process
are in train.
¶4. (U) The government-wide expenditure review introduced by
PM Martin upon assuming office, whereby each department is to
annually identify savings and low-priority spending
equivalent to 5% of its budget, has been going smoothly and
will provide additional budget flexibility. It will affect
each federal department, but many of the savings will be from
government-wide initiatives such as more efficient
procurement and property management. Finance Minister Ralph
Goodale recently told national media that Canadians can
expect no pre-election style "goodies," saying he has a plan
for the full term and is going to stick to it.
Liberals are reaching out...
----------------------------
¶5. (SBU/noforn) Just after the June 2004 election, the
Department of Finance detailed a senior budget expert to
liaise more directly with Parliamentarians and their staff.
The objective was to advance the priorities laid out in the
Speech from the Throne as fully as possible. All sides
expect the budget process to be much more complex in a
minority government, and the government understands that it
is important to maintain contact with the opposition and
Liberal backbenchers who had not previously been a factor in
the budget process. Officials take satisfaction in having
"done" health care, equalization, and offshore revenues (refs
A and B) so they can focus on the big picture of the Liberal
platform: childcare, cities, defense and
productivity/prosperity (i.e., taxes). As one contact put
it, "the budget is all perception and the parties are
claiming their turf."
¶6. (SBU/noforn) A more rambunctious Liberal party caucus
provides another new dynamic in the budget process. Recent
parliamentary reforms permit any member to introduce a bill.
Although they cannot propose increases in revenue or taxes,
they can propose spending cuts. So far, 30 bills have been
accepted for consideration by the House. Some were ruled out
of order (because they involved revenue increases) but four
tax-reduction measures are being considered and require time
to debate (and hopefully, according to Finance, defeat).
...Sort of
----------
¶7. (SBU/noforn) Finance Minister Goodale and his top
officials have traveled the country for pre-budget
consultations in every province. There is an effort to allow
as many groups as possible to speak to the Minister directly,
and regional meetings include the full range of interest
groups in each region, with the implicit message that there
is stiff competition for funding. The Minister also meets
with members of the Liberal Caucus in each province, in
recognition of the fact that in a minority government there
needs to be extra effort to keep the troops on board. The
intensive schedule of consultations does not necessarily
reflect a search for consensus. Finance officials seem to
relish the expected tussle in Parliament, with more than one
Finance contact saying, "We ran on a platform and won."
¶8. (U) The House Finance Committee should be the only
committee to consider the budget, but the dynamics of the
budget approval process in a minority government are new to
everyone. This is the only absolute confidence vote the
Liberal government will face in the short term. Comment: We
expect back scratching, log rolling and coalition building,
but the extent to which that will result in significant delay
or changes to Liberal's budget priorities is unpredictable.
End comment.
¶9. (SBU/noforn) One expert close to the budget process noted
that, in terms of pre-election positioning, the Conservative
party has not really gained strong support from the business
community but "the budget could change that, if it's
Socialist." However, from what we hear, Martin's team is
working hard to make sure their budget cherry-picks the best
ideas from each party. Given their healthy fiscal position,
there should be no problem funding initiatives that will
appeal to voters while still maintaining "balanced budgets or
better." Budget officials predict that although the NDP and
Bloc Quebecois parties may be "on a different wavelength,"
the Liberals will be able to work with the Conservatives, but
will have to be willing to trade. It would be possible to
"do something with the NDP on social issues," but could be
expensive.
Conservatives: Cut taxes; support the military
--------------------------------------------- --
¶10. (SBU/noforn) During a meeting with emboffs last fall,
Conservative Party finance critic Monte Solberg said they
expect more outreach than in the past by the Liberal party,
but had not seen signs of it yet. (Note: the Finance
Minister has since held meetings with opposition leaders.
End note.) He confirmed that each party is testing the
waters in the new minority environment, trying to see how far
they can push things without bringing down the government.
Conservative Party parliamentarians are considered unlikely
to support a no-confidence vote at least until after their
policy convention on March 17-19. At this point, the
Conservatives do not have a party platform and are thus not
in a strong position to contest an election. A financial
consultant with experience at the Bank of Canada and
Department of Finance who is working on the Conservative
party financial platform for the March policy convention said
they are working hard to weed divisive items (such as bank
mergers) out of the platform.
¶11. (U) In an open letter to Finance Minister Goodale on
January 28, Solberg called on the Liberals to include
significant tax cuts (especially on personal income taxes and
"job-killing" capital taxes, employment insurance premiums,
capital gains taxes); measures to enhance business incentives
and attract investment (improve infrastructure and support
cities, refine regulations, raise the capital gains
exemption, expand the tuition grant program, remove federal
taxes on scholarships); and spending on the military
(especially heavy lift capacity) in the upcoming budget. He,
like the NDP, called for an independent process for
forecasting the financial situation, noting that consistent
low-balling of the surplus curtailed discussion of tax cuts.
He also wants the budget to "reduce the fiscal imbalance"
between the federal and provincial governments (an imbalance
federal officials claim does not exist). Solberg was quoted
February 4 saying that, short of tax increases or deficit
spending (both against the current government's policies),
there is no way the Conservatives want to risk forcing an
election because Canadian voters simply do not want an
election now.
¶12. (SBU/noforn) Comment: Although to us these priorities
show a similarity to the government's goals, probably
reflecting both Liberal party efforts to undermine the
Conservative platform and Conservative efforts to move
towards the middle, a GOC official described them as not in
alignment with the Liberal's priorities expressed in the
Speech from the Throne. End comment.
NDP: Not looking to bring down the government
---------------------------------------------
¶13. (SBU/noforn) The NDP's Finance Critic complained to the
press after her recent meeting with the Minister of Finance
that the Liberals are shutting out the opposition, but this
was clearly political bravado as we were subsequently told by
her staff that she felt the "meeting was good." Top
officials at Finance note wryly that the publicity "won't
encourage further outreach by the Minister." Despite
provocative statments by NDP leader Jack Layton on February
4, NDP staffers tell us there is no intention of using the
budget to bring down the government, and the party will not
"set an impossible target" of items it requires in order to
vote for the budget.
¶14. (U) The NDP shares other opposition parties' outrage at
what they perceive as lack of forecasting transparency, and
calls for creation of an independent budget office. (Note:
For several years the GOC has used surveys of private sector
forecasters to estimate the surplus. The evolution of those
forecasts is published in the budget document each year. End
note.) They want more Parliamentary input on use of the
surplus, favoring more gradual debt reduction and higher
spending on infrastructure, meeting Kyoto commitments,
housing, childcare, and education. They oppose tax cuts,
except for low-income citizens.
International Policy Statement: Can't agree, but can budget
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶15. (SBU/noforn) Everyone we talk to who is involved in the
long-awaited interagency review of Canada's role in the
world, the International Policy Statement, confirms that it
has been a much more contentious and difficult process than
expected, and there is unlikely to be consensus before the
budget. However, the government plans to include in the
budget allocations that will support key international
priorities. We've been told to look for budget allocations
for security, the financial sector and environmental issues,
although "nothing major."
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa
CELLUCCI