

Currently released so far... 12478 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AU
ASEC
AE
AF
AORC
AEMR
AMGT
ABUD
AFFAIRS
APER
AS
AMED
AY
AG
AR
AJ
AL
AID
AM
AODE
ABLD
AMG
AFIN
ATRN
AGAO
AFU
AN
AA
ALOW
APECO
ADM
ARF
ASEAN
APEC
AMBASSADOR
AO
ASUP
AZ
AADP
ACOA
ANET
AMCHAMS
ACABQ
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APCS
AGMT
AINF
AIT
AORL
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ACBAQ
AFGHANISTAN
ADANA
ADPM
AX
ADCO
AECL
AMEX
ACAO
ASCH
AORG
AGR
AROC
ASIG
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
BL
BR
BO
BA
BD
BM
BK
BG
BU
BB
BH
BTIO
BY
BEXP
BP
BE
BRUSSELS
BF
BIDEN
BT
BX
BC
BILAT
BN
BBSR
BTIU
BWC
BMGT
CA
CASC
CVIS
CM
CH
CO
CU
CD
CWC
CI
CS
CY
CMGT
CF
CG
CR
CB
CV
CW
CE
CBW
CT
CPAS
COUNTERTERRORISM
CJAN
CODEL
CIDA
CDG
CDC
CIA
CTR
CNARC
CSW
CN
CONS
CLINTON
COE
CROS
CARICOM
CONDOLEEZZA
COUNTER
CL
COM
CICTE
CIS
CFED
COUNTRY
CJUS
CBSA
CEUDA
CLMT
CAC
COPUOS
CIC
CBE
CHR
CTM
CVR
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CACS
CAN
CITT
CARSON
CACM
CDB
CAPC
CKGR
CBC
EC
EG
EPET
ECON
ETRD
EFIN
EIND
EMIN
ENRG
EAID
EAGR
EUN
ETTC
EAIR
ENIV
ES
EU
EINV
ELAB
ECIN
EFIS
ELTN
EWWT
ECPS
ECONOMIC
ENGR
EN
EINT
EPA
ELN
ESA
EZ
ER
ET
EFTA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
EXTERNAL
EI
EUR
EK
ERNG
ENGY
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENERG
EINVEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELECTIONS
ETC
EUREM
ENNP
EFINECONCS
EURN
ECINECONCS
EEPET
EXIM
ERD
ENVI
ETRC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ETRO
EDU
ETRN
EAIG
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
EIAR
EXBS
ECUN
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ESENV
ECONEFIN
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINVETC
IZ
IT
IR
IS
IN
IC
IAEA
IO
ICAO
IWC
ID
IV
ISRAEL
IAHRC
IQ
ICTR
IMF
IRS
IDP
IGAD
ICRC
ICTY
IMO
IL
INRA
INRO
ICJ
ITU
IBRD
INMARSAT
IIP
ITALY
IEFIN
IACI
ILO
INTELSAT
ILC
ITRA
IDA
INRB
IRC
INTERPOL
IA
IPR
IRAQI
ISRAELI
INTERNAL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
IBET
INR
IEA
IZPREL
IRAJ
ITF
IF
KDEM
KU
KPAL
KNNP
KCRM
KZ
KN
KS
KJUS
KTFN
KSCA
KV
KISL
KPAO
KPKO
KIRF
KTIA
KIPR
KFLO
KFRD
KTIP
KAWC
KSUM
KCOM
KAID
KE
KTDB
KMDR
KOMC
KWBG
KDRG
KVPR
KTEX
KGIC
KWMN
KSCI
KCOR
KACT
KDDG
KHLS
KSAF
KFLU
KSEO
KMRS
KSPR
KOLY
KSEP
KVIR
KGHG
KIRC
KUNR
KIFR
KCIP
KMCA
KMPI
KBCT
KHSA
KICC
KIDE
KCRS
KMFO
KRVC
KRGY
KR
KAWK
KG
KFIN
KHIV
KBIO
KOCI
KBTR
KNEI
KPOA
KCFE
KPLS
KSTC
KHDP
KPRP
KCRCM
KLIG
KCFC
KTER
KREC
KTBT
KPRV
KSTH
KRIM
KRAD
KWAC
KWMM
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KOMS
KX
KMIG
KRCM
KVRP
KBTS
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNAR
KPWR
KNPP
KDEMAF
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KGIT
KPAI
KTLA
KFSC
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KID
KOM
KMOC
KJUST
KGCC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KO
KNSD
KHUM
KSEC
KCMR
KCHG
KICA
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KCGC
KWWMN
KPAK
KWNM
KWMNCS
KRFD
MOPS
MCAP
MPOS
MARR
MO
MNUC
MX
MASS
MG
MY
MU
ML
MR
MILITARY
MTCRE
MT
MEPP
MA
MDC
MP
MAR
MASSMNUC
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MD
MI
MEETINGS
MK
MCC
MEPN
MRCRE
MAS
MIL
MASC
MC
MV
MTCR
MIK
MUCN
MEDIA
MERCOSUR
MW
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTRE
MEPI
MQADHAFI
MAPS
NO
NATO
NL
NP
NZ
NSF
NI
NH
NG
NAFTA
NU
NASA
NR
NATOPREL
NSSP
NSG
NA
NT
NW
NK
NPT
NPA
NATIONAL
NPG
NSFO
NS
NSC
NE
NGO
NDP
NIPP
NRR
NEW
NZUS
NC
NAR
NV
NORAD
OTRA
OPCW
OVIP
OAS
OREP
OPIC
OIIP
OPRC
ODIP
OEXC
OPDC
OSCE
OIC
OSCI
OECD
OFDP
OFDA
OMIG
OPAD
OFFICIALS
OVP
OIE
OHUM
OCS
OBSP
OTR
OSAC
ON
OCII
OES
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PTER
PINS
PINR
PREF
PK
PROP
PA
PARM
PBTS
PMAR
PM
PGIV
PE
PRAM
PHUH
PHSA
PL
PNAT
PO
PLN
PAO
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PF
PEL
PBIO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PAS
POL
PREO
PAHO
PMIL
POGOV
POV
PAK
PNR
PRL
PG
PREFA
PSI
PINL
PU
PARMS
PRGOV
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POSTS
PROG
PORG
PTBS
PUNE
POLICY
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PP
PS
PY
PTERE
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PRELP
PSEPC
PGOVE
PINF
PNG
PGOC
PFOR
PCUL
POLINT
PGGV
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PGOVLO
PHUS
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RELATIONS
RW
RO
RM
RP
ROOD
RICE
RUPREL
RSO
RCMP
REACTION
REPORT
REGION
RIGHTS
RF
RFE
RSP
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
SU
SCUL
SNAR
SOCI
SF
SA
SHUM
SENV
SP
SR
SY
SANC
SC
SMIG
SZ
SARS
SW
SEVN
SO
SEN
SL
SNARCS
SNARN
SI
SG
SN
SH
SYR
SAARC
SPCE
SHI
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SYRIA
SWE
STEINBERG
SIPRS
ST
SNARIZ
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SIPDIS
SAN
TC
TI
TBIO
TH
TSPL
TRGY
TSPA
TPHY
TU
TW
TS
TAGS
TK
TX
TNGD
TZ
TF
TL
TV
TN
TD
TIP
TR
TP
TO
TT
TFIN
THPY
TERRORISM
TINT
TRSY
TURKEY
TBID
US
UK
UNGA
UP
UZ
UNMIK
USTR
UNO
UNSC
UN
UNESCO
UNAUS
UNHRC
UY
UG
UNHCR
UNCND
USOAS
USEU
UNICEF
UNEP
UV
UNPUOS
UNCSD
USUN
UNCHR
UNDC
USNC
UE
UNDP
UNC
USPS
USAID
UNVIE
UAE
UNFICYP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09GUATEMALA917, First Lady Prepares Controversial Bid for Presidency
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09GUATEMALA917.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09GUATEMALA917 | 2009-09-28 22:58 | 2010-12-14 21:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Guatemala |
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHGT #0917/01 2712258
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 282258Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0092
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0014
C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000917
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/28
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM SOCI GT
SUBJECT: First Lady Prepares Controversial Bid for Presidency
REF: A. GUATEMALA 254; B. GUATEMALA 009; C. 2008 GUATEMALA 1573 D. 2008 GUATEMALA 1017
CLASSIFIED BY: Drew G. Blakeney, Political and Economic Counselor, State, P/E; REASON: 1.4B, D
Summary
------------
¶1. (C) Although she has not publicly stated her intentions, it is clear that First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom intends to run for the Guatemalan Presidency in 2011. Torres, who is to the left of her husband, President Alvaro Colom, is a controversial figure. She is the most able manager in the government, and also the most abrasive. Many poor, rural Guatemalans, ignored by previous governments, are grateful for her Conditional Cash Transfer and other social programs. Many middle- and upper-class urban voters tend to see Torres as a radical populist. Her sex and middle class provincial origins reinforce the upper class' distrust of her. The Guatemalan Constitution bars presidential family members from running, but Torres is likely to challenge that obstacle. Her efforts to do so would generate considerable controversy, given the politicization and corruption in judicial institutions. The First Lady's likely candidacy means that the current GOG is balancing governance with preparing for the 2011 campaign. End Summary. First Lady Preparing for 2011
Election
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶2. (C) Although she has not publicly declared her intention, several Embassy contacts have reported that First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom has confided to them that she is preparing to run for President in 2011. The press regularly comments on her presidential aspirations, which Guatemala's First Family has neither discouraged nor denied. When inaugurated in 2008, President Colom publicly declared that his wife would be a First Lady "like no other," and indeed her policy activism and role in managing the government are without local precedent. Colom has also told the Ambassador that Guatemala's deep-rooted poverty, violence, and impunity could be resolved by the continuity of having the same party in power for two to three presidential terms. An Effective Manager...
-------------------------------
¶3. (C) With the Guatemalan economy buffeted by the global downturn and security continuing to deteriorate, President Colom regularly points to his wife's social programs as his government's principal achievements. Torres de Colom leads the GOG's Social Cohesion Council, an inter-ministerial coordinating mechanism for the GOG's social welfare programs. The Council's activities constitute a ground-breaking official effort to alleviate poverty and attack its worst manifestations, including widespread child malnutrition. Although the recent increase in child malnutrition cases related to drought challenges some of Social Cohesion's effectiveness, we believe the First Lady is by far the best senior manager in government (albeit not a transparent one): She is smart, hard-working, and demands results. At the same time, her abrasiveness has lost her some allies, and we suspect that her subordinates are reluctant to give her or the public bad news.
¶4. (U) Torres de Colom is best known to the public for the Council's flagship Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Program, "My Family Progresses" (ref a). Like CCTs in Mexico, Brazil, and elsewhere, "My Family Progresses" provides monthly cash stipends to poor mothers on the condition that they keep their children in school and vaccinated. According to official statistics, the Guatemalan CCT reached 280,000 families in 89 municipalities in 2008. In 2009, the GOG plans to expand it to reach 500,000 families (approximately one-fifth of the country's population) in 140 municipalities. President Colom indicated that the annual budget for "My Family Progresses," which began at approximately $19 million, could reach $260 million in 2
¶010. This dramatic expansion so far has been funded largely by transfers from other government programs, including the Ministries of Health, Education, and Government.
¶5. (U) Critics point out that the Guatemalan CCT omits transparency and accountability controls found in other such programs in Latin America. The GOG has refused congressional requests to disclose the names and addresses of program recipients on privacy grounds despite a January 2009 Constitutional Court decision ordering it to do so. Critics charge -- without proof -- that the refusal is cover to facilitate continuing theft of program resources. Business sector and other critics have accused the GOG of fomenting a culture of dependency via the CCT, and of using it to buy the First Lady a political support base for her presidential aspirations.
¶6. (U) There is some element of sexism and classism in the upper and middle classes' opposition to Torres. Guatemala is a conservative society, and the large, indigenous society to which Torres is appealing for support through her social programs is very male-centered. Torres is nonetheless making headway. Two days after listening to Guatemala City Mayor Alvaro Azul say that, "Guatemala will never elect a female president," the Ambassador visited a remote village in Quetzaltenango department; the auxiliary (unpaid, indigenous) mayor was glowing in his appreciation for Torres, who had recently listened to the town's request for a bridge and had just approved it for bid submission. In the subsequent ceremony there for the President and First Lady, there were as many cheers for her as for him.
¶7. (U) "My Family Progresses" is not the First Lady's only program that has become popular with the poor. Other Social Cohesion Council programs include the Solidarity Bags Program (food assistance for poor urban families), the Open Schools Program (which provides children in gang-infested neighborhoods a safe place to play and learn on the weekends), and the Solidarity Din
ing Program (subsidized cafeteria meals). According to Social Cohesion Council data, 26,500 families benefited from the Food Assistance Program, 125,000 children participated in the Open Schools Program, and over 1 million meals were served as part of the Subsidized Meals Program from June 2008 to June 2009. According to Social Cohesion Council figures released in August, the budget for the three programs from June 2008 to June 2009 amounted to approximately $17.5 million. ...
But an Abrasive Personality
--------------------------------------
¶8. (C) Sandra Torres de Colom's assertive personality does not sit well with everyone in male-dominated Guatemalan society. According to President Colom's ousted campaign manager, Jose Carlos Marroquin, Torres de Colom wrested from him control of Colom's 2007 presidential campaign. Following Colom's inauguration, the First Lady screened potential cabinet officers, and continues to query and chastise cabinet officers during her regular participation in cabinet meetings. Several former cabinet officers and cabinet candidates who declined positions privately cited her abrasive treatment as the reason they left government or did not join it in the first place.
¶9. (C) Torres de Colom is widely suspected to have been behind the ouster of presidential security director Carlos Quintanilla (ref b), and influential Congressman Manuel Baldizon told Pol/Econ Counselor he and ten other members left the governing UNE's congressional bench over Torres' "dictatorial" direction of the UNE bench (ref c). According to UNE Deputy Christian Boussinot, Torres' insistence on taking the governing party further to the left is already dividing it, and led UNE President of Congress Roberto Alejos to publicly muse about leaving the party. Torres' inner circle of former guerrillas such as Peace Commissioner Orlando Blanco and Presidential Advisor Jorge Ismael Soto Garcia (aka "Pablo Monsanto," who was implicated in planning the 1968 murder of U.S. Ambassador John Gordon Mein), as well as her close relationship with Cuban Ambassador Omar Morales (per XXXXXXXXXXXXX, STRICTLY PROTECT), stir anxieties on the right end of the political spectrum. (Note: Conservative Presidents Arzu and Berger also had ex-guerrilla advisers.) Torres Likely to Clear Constitutional Hurdle
--------------------------------------------- ------------
¶10. (U) Article 186 of the Constitution prohibits the president's relatives "within four degrees of consanguinity and second-degree in-laws" from running for president. Torres' supporters argue that, because she is neither a blood relative nor an in-law of the President, she is eligible to run. Opponents counter that Guatemala's Civil Code defines spouses as relatives and in-laws. In 1989, the Constitutional Court banned then-First Lady Raquel Blandon de Cerezo from running for president, concluding that the prohibition against second degree in-laws "includes the spouse."
¶11. (C) Nonetheless, several elements work in Torres' favor. A new Constitutional Court likely to be sympathetic to the governing UNE party will be seated in April 2011, just in time to rule on Torres' candidacy. Furthermore, it is not clear that the President and First Lady are legally married. On February 24, 2002, Colom announced his marriage to Sandra Torres at the UNE National Assembly which launched him as a presidential candidate in 2003. Colom stated that they had married in Cuba on "the previous Saturday" (either February 16 or 23). According to newspaper "El Periodico," Sandra Torres was legally divorced from Augusto de Leon (see biographic note below) in December 2002 -- ten months after the First Couple married in Cuba. Finally, Colom later described the wedding as a "Mayan ceremony." Under Guatemalan law, ceremonial weddings have the same validity as common law marriages, which can be legally dissolved by either party "walking out."
The Evolving Electoral Landscape
-------------------------------------------
¶12. (C) At this early stage, it appears that the two principal presidential contenders in November 2011 will be rightist General Otto Perez Molina of the opposition Patriot Party and Sandra Torres de Colom. Taking a page from her husband's successful campaign, Torres' strategy would be to win with the support of rural, poor voters, many of whom are benefiting from her social programs. Electoral reforms in 2007 that nearly doubled the number of rural polling stations, making it easier for rural citizens to vote, benefited Alvaro Colom and presumably would also benefit Torres.
¶13. (C) Recent presidential elections have tended to favor the previous runner-up. Perez Molina finished second to Colom in 2007. A poll of unknown reliability published in August in newspaper "El Periodico" indicated Perez is the current front-runner, with the support of 34% of likely voters. According to the poll, almost none of the respondents indicated Torres de Colom as their first choice, but one Perez election advisor privately said he estimates her current support at about 12%. An economic advisor to Torres told Emboffs that Torres is aware that she is a polarizing figure, and that if her poll numbers do not quickly improve as the election approaches, she might resign herself to being the power behind the throne, and let someone else run in her stead. He said that so far there is no consensus on who that might be, or whom Torres might pick as her running mate.
¶14. (C) The extent to which the MDF congressional finance scandal will sully Perez Molina is not yet clear, but it is something he will have to confront in the course of the campaign (ref d). Evangelical pastor Harold Caballeros of the VIVA Party plans to challenge Perez Molina for right-leaning voters' support, while center-left populist congressman Manuel Baldizon may challenge Torres for center-left votes. Many observers think, however, that 2011 is likely to be a trial run for Caballeros and Baldizon, and that they will become potential finalists for the presidency only further down the road.
¶15. (C) (Biographic Note: Sandra Julieta Torres Casanova de Colom was born Oct. 15, 1959, in Melchor de Mencos, Peten Department, Guatemala, on the border with Belize. She studied high school in Belize, got an undergraduate degree in communications from San Carlos University, and received a Master's Degree in Public Policy from Rafael Landivar University. She owns several textiles factories. Torres' family is influential in politics. Her first husband, Edgar Augusto de Leon, was leader of the leftist and now defunct DIA party, which unsuccessfully ran Alvaro Colom for president in 1999. She has four children by de Leon. DIA ran Torres' older brother, Luis Rolando Torres Casanova, for president in 1995, also unsuccessfully. Her mother, Teresa Casanova, served as mayor of Melchor de Mencos. Her sister, Gloria Torres, serves as the Presidential Liaison to Guatemala's municipal governments. End Note.)
Comment
-------------
¶16. (C) Much will change between now and Fall 2011, but different parties' plans for that distant event are already taking shape and impacting the political landscape. Guatemala's current electorate is distinct from that of many Latin American countries in that it ranges from center-left to hard-right. However, widespread poverty, hunger, marginalization of the large (but fractious) indigenous minority, and a long history of state neglect of the poor could prove fertile ground for the rise of a new, more radical left. Torres de Colom is working quickly to build just such a base for her presidential bid. MCFARLAND