

Currently released so far... 12478 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AU
ASEC
AE
AF
AORC
AEMR
AMGT
ABUD
AFFAIRS
APER
AS
AMED
AY
AG
AR
AJ
AL
AID
AM
AODE
ABLD
AMG
AFIN
ATRN
AGAO
AFU
AN
AA
ALOW
APECO
ADM
ARF
ASEAN
APEC
AMBASSADOR
AO
ASUP
AZ
AADP
ACOA
ANET
AMCHAMS
ACABQ
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APCS
AGMT
AINF
AIT
AORL
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ACBAQ
AFGHANISTAN
ADANA
ADPM
AX
ADCO
AECL
AMEX
ACAO
ASCH
AORG
AGR
AROC
ASIG
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
BL
BR
BO
BA
BD
BM
BK
BG
BU
BB
BH
BTIO
BY
BEXP
BP
BE
BRUSSELS
BF
BIDEN
BT
BX
BC
BILAT
BN
BBSR
BTIU
BWC
BMGT
CA
CASC
CVIS
CM
CH
CO
CU
CD
CWC
CI
CS
CY
CMGT
CF
CG
CR
CB
CV
CW
CE
CBW
CT
CPAS
COUNTERTERRORISM
CJAN
CODEL
CIDA
CDG
CDC
CIA
CTR
CNARC
CSW
CN
CONS
CLINTON
COE
CROS
CARICOM
CONDOLEEZZA
COUNTER
CL
COM
CICTE
CIS
CFED
COUNTRY
CJUS
CBSA
CEUDA
CLMT
CAC
COPUOS
CIC
CBE
CHR
CTM
CVR
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CACS
CAN
CITT
CARSON
CACM
CDB
CAPC
CKGR
CBC
EC
EG
EPET
ECON
ETRD
EFIN
EIND
EMIN
ENRG
EAID
EAGR
EUN
ETTC
EAIR
ENIV
ES
EU
EINV
ELAB
ECIN
EFIS
ELTN
EWWT
ECPS
ECONOMIC
ENGR
EN
EINT
EPA
ELN
ESA
EZ
ER
ET
EFTA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
EXTERNAL
EI
EUR
EK
ERNG
ENGY
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENERG
EINVEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELECTIONS
ETC
EUREM
ENNP
EFINECONCS
EURN
ECINECONCS
EEPET
EXIM
ERD
ENVI
ETRC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ETRO
EDU
ETRN
EAIG
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
EIAR
EXBS
ECUN
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ESENV
ECONEFIN
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINVETC
IZ
IT
IR
IS
IN
IC
IAEA
IO
ICAO
IWC
ID
IV
ISRAEL
IAHRC
IQ
ICTR
IMF
IRS
IDP
IGAD
ICRC
ICTY
IMO
IL
INRA
INRO
ICJ
ITU
IBRD
INMARSAT
IIP
ITALY
IEFIN
IACI
ILO
INTELSAT
ILC
ITRA
IDA
INRB
IRC
INTERPOL
IA
IPR
IRAQI
ISRAELI
INTERNAL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
IBET
INR
IEA
IZPREL
IRAJ
ITF
IF
KDEM
KU
KPAL
KNNP
KCRM
KZ
KN
KS
KJUS
KTFN
KSCA
KV
KISL
KPAO
KPKO
KIRF
KTIA
KIPR
KFLO
KFRD
KTIP
KAWC
KSUM
KCOM
KAID
KE
KTDB
KMDR
KOMC
KWBG
KDRG
KVPR
KTEX
KGIC
KWMN
KSCI
KCOR
KACT
KDDG
KHLS
KSAF
KFLU
KSEO
KMRS
KSPR
KOLY
KSEP
KVIR
KGHG
KIRC
KUNR
KIFR
KCIP
KMCA
KMPI
KBCT
KHSA
KICC
KIDE
KCRS
KMFO
KRVC
KRGY
KR
KAWK
KG
KFIN
KHIV
KBIO
KOCI
KBTR
KNEI
KPOA
KCFE
KPLS
KSTC
KHDP
KPRP
KCRCM
KLIG
KCFC
KTER
KREC
KTBT
KPRV
KSTH
KRIM
KRAD
KWAC
KWMM
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KOMS
KX
KMIG
KRCM
KVRP
KBTS
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNAR
KPWR
KNPP
KDEMAF
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KGIT
KPAI
KTLA
KFSC
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KID
KOM
KMOC
KJUST
KGCC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KO
KNSD
KHUM
KSEC
KCMR
KCHG
KICA
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KCGC
KWWMN
KPAK
KWNM
KWMNCS
KRFD
MOPS
MCAP
MPOS
MARR
MO
MNUC
MX
MASS
MG
MY
MU
ML
MR
MILITARY
MTCRE
MT
MEPP
MA
MDC
MP
MAR
MASSMNUC
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MD
MI
MEETINGS
MK
MCC
MEPN
MRCRE
MAS
MIL
MASC
MC
MV
MTCR
MIK
MUCN
MEDIA
MERCOSUR
MW
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTRE
MEPI
MQADHAFI
MAPS
NO
NATO
NL
NP
NZ
NSF
NI
NH
NG
NAFTA
NU
NASA
NR
NATOPREL
NSSP
NSG
NA
NT
NW
NK
NPT
NPA
NATIONAL
NPG
NSFO
NS
NSC
NE
NGO
NDP
NIPP
NRR
NEW
NZUS
NC
NAR
NV
NORAD
OTRA
OPCW
OVIP
OAS
OREP
OPIC
OIIP
OPRC
ODIP
OEXC
OPDC
OSCE
OIC
OSCI
OECD
OFDP
OFDA
OMIG
OPAD
OFFICIALS
OVP
OIE
OHUM
OCS
OBSP
OTR
OSAC
ON
OCII
OES
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PTER
PINS
PINR
PREF
PK
PROP
PA
PARM
PBTS
PMAR
PM
PGIV
PE
PRAM
PHUH
PHSA
PL
PNAT
PO
PLN
PAO
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PF
PEL
PBIO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PAS
POL
PREO
PAHO
PMIL
POGOV
POV
PAK
PNR
PRL
PG
PREFA
PSI
PINL
PU
PARMS
PRGOV
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POSTS
PROG
PORG
PTBS
PUNE
POLICY
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PP
PS
PY
PTERE
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PRELP
PSEPC
PGOVE
PINF
PNG
PGOC
PFOR
PCUL
POLINT
PGGV
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PGOVLO
PHUS
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RELATIONS
RW
RO
RM
RP
ROOD
RICE
RUPREL
RSO
RCMP
REACTION
REPORT
REGION
RIGHTS
RF
RFE
RSP
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
SU
SCUL
SNAR
SOCI
SF
SA
SHUM
SENV
SP
SR
SY
SANC
SC
SMIG
SZ
SARS
SW
SEVN
SO
SEN
SL
SNARCS
SNARN
SI
SG
SN
SH
SYR
SAARC
SPCE
SHI
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SYRIA
SWE
STEINBERG
SIPRS
ST
SNARIZ
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SIPDIS
SAN
TC
TI
TBIO
TH
TSPL
TRGY
TSPA
TPHY
TU
TW
TS
TAGS
TK
TX
TNGD
TZ
TF
TL
TV
TN
TD
TIP
TR
TP
TO
TT
TFIN
THPY
TERRORISM
TINT
TRSY
TURKEY
TBID
US
UK
UNGA
UP
UZ
UNMIK
USTR
UNO
UNSC
UN
UNESCO
UNAUS
UNHRC
UY
UG
UNHCR
UNCND
USOAS
USEU
UNICEF
UNEP
UV
UNPUOS
UNCSD
USUN
UNCHR
UNDC
USNC
UE
UNDP
UNC
USPS
USAID
UNVIE
UAE
UNFICYP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06PARIS1681, SARKOZY ADVISOR ON FIRST EMPLOYMENT CONTRACT, END
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06PARIS1681.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06PARIS1681 | 2006-03-16 15:31 | 2010-11-30 21:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris |
VZCZCXRO1418
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHFR #1681/01 0751531
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161531Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5250
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001681
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL FR SOCI PINR EUN
SUBJECT: SARKOZY ADVISOR ON FIRST EMPLOYMENT CONTRACT, END
OF VILLEPIN'S PRESIDENTIAL CHANCES
REF: PARIS 953
Classified By: PolMC Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (B & D).
¶1. (C) Summary: Former Industry Minister and close Sarkozy
advisor Patrick Devedjian predicted March 15 that student and
labor union opposition to the First Employment Contract (CPE)
was spreading and might yet become a major test for the
government. In any event, he believed that PM de Villepin
was finished as a potential presidential candidate.
Devedjian blamed the current impasse squarely on Villepin's
impetuousness and autocratic methods, which, while leaving
the governing party (and Sarkozy) no choice but to support
him publicly, had given the opposition Socialist Party a
potent rallying call for coalescing against the government.
He thought it possible but not likely that Villepin would be
replaced, but ruled out a Sarkozy prime ministership as
"suicidal." Devedjian nonetheless judged that knowledge of
Sarkozy's "differences" with President Chirac and Villepin,
despite his official support for the government, would spare
him most of the electorate's wrath and leave him well
positioned to win the 2007 party nomination and presidential
elections. Devedjian saw Segolene Royal as the opponent to
be most feared on the left, although he thought she might
self-destruct if nominated by the PS, and believed that the
PS would probably prevent her from winning its nomination in
any case. Comment: Devedjian's views, reported here, are
four parts hard analysis, one part wishful thinking. End
comment and summary.
¶2. (U) Patrick Devedjian, former Industry Minister and close
advisor to Interior Minister and UMP President Nicolas
Sarkozy, met March 15 with Embassy reps from the U.S., the
UK, Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain and Russia to discuss the
state of play with respect to the First Employment Contract
(CPE) and its impact on the current government under PM de
Villepin, as well as the line-up for the 2007 presidential
elections.
CPE and spreading unrest
------------------------
¶3. (C) Devedjian described growing public opposition to the
First Employment Contract (CPE) and declared he "was not
optimistic" for the future, even if there was some hope that
unemployment figures would begin to improve again. He
predicted a turbulent period ahead -- beginning with the
large demonstration planned for March 18 -- which would last
at least one and one-half to two months, and judged that the
government's only real option would be to try to ride out the
storm in the hope that public opinion would eventually turn
against the protesters. Although the government had promised
a few amendments to the law to appease public opinion and was
now expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue, Devedjian
expressed concern that the manner in which the government had
proceeded had resulted in uniting, or in his word,
"coagulating," its adversaries. He concluded that
developments had now moved "beyond the CPE."
More important than unrest in suburbs
-------------------------------------
¶4. (C) Devedjian noted ironically that the students
currently protesting against the CPE were relatively
privileged and much more likely to find jobs than the
uneducated and unemployed youths in the suburbs whom the CPE
was intended to help. He saw nothing particularly unusual
about this state of affairs, saying this was what always
happened in France. He termed the November unrest in the
suburbs "a revolt without a message" (sans discours),
concluding that it was primarily a cultural revolt by
third-generation immigrants. At the same time, he argued
against multiculturalism, saying that the real problem lay in
France's failure to inculcate adequately French culture and
values into these unemployed youths and in the government's
long-time policy of effectively ghettoizing immigrant
populations in lieu of dispersing them throughout French
society. He called for some kind of affirmative action and
stressed the importance of demonstrating visibly that members
of a minority can make it to the top. In sum, he did not
appear to take last fall's suburban violence all that
seriously. While the images of the unrest were spectacular,
he said, they had little real (political) import.
Villepin to blame
-----------------
¶5. (C) Devedjian viewed Villepin's impetuous personality and
autocratic style as largely responsible for the current
impasse. Villepin's decision, during the recent debate in
the National Assembly, to let other ministers respond to
hostile questioning and distance himself personally from the
CPE would not succeed in attenuating this perception.
Devedjian blamed Villepin for his refusal to engage in
dialogue with the labor unions before proceeding -- in
PARIS 00001681 002 OF 003
particular with the generally pro-reform-minded CFDT that had
supported Raffarin's pension reforms, and which had now
turned against him. He criticized Villepin for repeating
Balladur's mistake of 1994 of singling out one specific
segment of the French public for reform, which to the French
electorate smacked of discrimination and violated the
principle of equality. Devedjian especially castigated
Villepin's recourse to article 49.3 of the constitution to
put a stop to parliamentary debate as "very dangerous" and a
blow to the strength of democratic institutions. He decried
France's "monarchical mentality," which viewed decisions in
terms of decrees and offered solutions before discussing the
questions.
UMP trapped, but Villepin finished
----------------------------------
¶6. (C) Devedjian described a UMP trapped by Villepin --
forced to support him on the CPE without enthusiasm because
it was obligated to support the government. He believed that
the government, having closed the doors to dialogue, no
longer had any escape paths. Villepin's decision not to
allow the opposition to debate the issue in parliament, if
only as a venting exercise, had ineluctably moved the debate
into the streets. Devedjian judged that the current unrest
would spell the death knell for Villepin's presidential
aspirations. If things got bad enough, he held out the
possibility that Chirac would have to appoint a new prime
minister, probably either Defense Minister Michele
Alliot-Marie or Employment and Social Cohesion Minister
Jean-Louis Borloo, while judging in the end that Chirac would
probably stick with Villepin. Devedjian firmly ruled out the
possibility of Sarkozy accepting the job as prime minister,
which he said would be "suicidal." He did not believe that
President Chirac would withdraw the law and suffer yet
another loss of face. But whether the CPE remains or is
jettisoned, Devedjian concluded, this would be the last
reform pushed through by the current government.
Socialists smell blood
----------------------
¶7. (C) Devedjian said that the Socialist Party (PS) had now
smelled blood and had come to the conclusion that its views,
and not those of the governing party, were more
representative of a majority of the French electorate.
Moreover, this was the latest in a string of setbacks that
included, inter alia, the failed referendum on the EU
constitutional treaty, growing opprobrium directed against
Chirac, and the recent wave of social unrest in the suburbs.
Sarkozy, he asserted, was the best positioned to overcome
this alienation, since the public and press largely
understood that he supported the government but was different
from it (solidaire mais different). This would remain so
despite efforts by PS presidential hopeful Dominique
Strauss-Kahn to paint Villepin and Sarkozy with the same
brush.
Sarkozy still the one to beat
-----------------------------
¶8. (C) Devedjian expressed certainty that Sarkozy would be
nominated to represent the governing party during the first
round of the 2007 presidential elections, and that he would
fare well enough to be one of two candidates in the second
round. He judged that Sarkozy's law-and-order reputation
would ensure that most far-right National Front (FN)
supporters would vote for Sarkozy in the second round, adding
that the FN would die out with the passing from the scene of
Le Pen. Devedjian acknowledged that Sarkozy, having first
consolidated his right wing, would need to do more to attract
centrist voters. He argued there was still time for this,
noting that Sarkozy had already come up with a number of
proposals that one normally would have expected to originate
on the left, for instance that immigrant permanent residents
be allowed to vote in municipal elections.
Segolene Royal the best on the left
-----------------------------------
¶9. (C) Asked whom he feared most among the Socialist
candidates, Devedjian named Segolene Royal, citing the
difficulty of running against an "image". (Comment:
Throughout the discussion, Devedjian stressed the importance
of running on projects for the future rather than past
accomplishments; no one, he said, won elections out of
gratitude for what they had done. Jospin, despite his record
of reducing unemployment, was proof of that. End comment.)
Fortunately, he said only half in jest, the PS would likely
refuse her the nomination and thereby spare Sarkozy the need
to defeat her himself ("they will take care of her for us").
Devedjian said her candidacy could fall apart if she
continued to commit gaffes such as calling on regional
leaders to block government subsidies to mayors who apply the
CPE, which was against the law. Also making fun of her
repeatedly expressed admiration for British PM Tony Blair,
PARIS 00001681 003 OF 003
Devedjian judged that Royal, known for her support for family
values and the work ethic, tended "to demobilize" the
far-left, which would hurt her chances in the second round,
since Communist Party supporters would not vote for her.
(Note: Devedjian said that, to win, a party has to mobilize
its own voters and demobilize those of the opposition.)
Asked who would be the candidate if Royal did not run,
Devedjian named former PM Lionel Jospin. But he predicted
that Jospin's age and history would tend to work against him.
(Comment: By contrast, Socialists often predict that voters
will react "with nervousness" to the super-charged Sarkozy
and gravitate toward a more reassuring figure. End comment.)
Sarkozy's plans if elected
--------------------------
¶10. (C) Asked whether Sarkozy, if elected, would attempt to
push through a whole series of ambitious reforms in the early
months of his office, before French opposition to change
blocks further reforms, Devedjian said this would not be the
case. The one exception would be the judiciary, where he saw
a need for deep-reaching changes. He said he was also
interested in changing the constitution to abolish article
49.3 and reduce or abolish the possibilities for censure of
dissolution or the parliament. He believed a move to either
a more presidential (with the U.S. as model) or parliamentary
system (as in the UK) could be accomplished by amending the
existing constitution.
Devedjian's plans
-----------------
¶11. (SBU) Devedjian said he would expect to be a part of a
Sarkozy government, but he refused to speculate in what
capacity, although he subsequently launched into a discussion
of needed judicial reforms. (Note: Pundits predict Sarkozy
would name him as Justice Minister.) In departing, he
recalled warmly his February 3 meeting with EUR PDAS Volker
and Pol M/C (reftel).
Comment
-------
¶12. (C) Devedjian was friendly and animated, and in no hurry
to leave. Sarkozy's circle has come to the conclusion that
Villepin is now effectively finished as a potential
presidential candidate, even though this clearly also
represents wishful thinking on their part. Noteworthy was
Devedjian's judgment that the CPE may yet prove to be a major
test for the government, which contradicts the perception of
many that opposition to the CPE has not reached crisis
proportions. We'll know more following the March 18
demonstrations.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
Stapleton