

Currently released so far... 12478 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AU
ASEC
AE
AF
AORC
AEMR
AMGT
ABUD
AFFAIRS
APER
AS
AMED
AY
AG
AR
AJ
AL
AID
AM
AODE
ABLD
AMG
AFIN
ATRN
AGAO
AFU
AN
AA
ALOW
APECO
ADM
ARF
ASEAN
APEC
AMBASSADOR
AO
ASUP
AZ
AADP
ACOA
ANET
AMCHAMS
ACABQ
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APCS
AGMT
AINF
AIT
AORL
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ACBAQ
AFGHANISTAN
ADANA
ADPM
AX
ADCO
AECL
AMEX
ACAO
ASCH
AORG
AGR
AROC
ASIG
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
BL
BR
BO
BA
BD
BM
BK
BG
BU
BB
BH
BTIO
BY
BEXP
BP
BE
BRUSSELS
BF
BIDEN
BT
BX
BC
BILAT
BN
BBSR
BTIU
BWC
BMGT
CA
CASC
CVIS
CM
CH
CO
CU
CD
CWC
CI
CS
CY
CMGT
CF
CG
CR
CB
CV
CW
CE
CBW
CT
CPAS
COUNTERTERRORISM
CJAN
CODEL
CIDA
CDG
CDC
CIA
CTR
CNARC
CSW
CN
CONS
CLINTON
COE
CROS
CARICOM
CONDOLEEZZA
COUNTER
CL
COM
CICTE
CIS
CFED
COUNTRY
CJUS
CBSA
CEUDA
CLMT
CAC
COPUOS
CIC
CBE
CHR
CTM
CVR
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CACS
CAN
CITT
CARSON
CACM
CDB
CAPC
CKGR
CBC
EC
EG
EPET
ECON
ETRD
EFIN
EIND
EMIN
ENRG
EAID
EAGR
EUN
ETTC
EAIR
ENIV
ES
EU
EINV
ELAB
ECIN
EFIS
ELTN
EWWT
ECPS
ECONOMIC
ENGR
EN
EINT
EPA
ELN
ESA
EZ
ER
ET
EFTA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
EXTERNAL
EI
EUR
EK
ERNG
ENGY
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENERG
EINVEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELECTIONS
ETC
EUREM
ENNP
EFINECONCS
EURN
ECINECONCS
EEPET
EXIM
ERD
ENVI
ETRC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ETRO
EDU
ETRN
EAIG
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
EIAR
EXBS
ECUN
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ESENV
ECONEFIN
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINVETC
IZ
IT
IR
IS
IN
IC
IAEA
IO
ICAO
IWC
ID
IV
ISRAEL
IAHRC
IQ
ICTR
IMF
IRS
IDP
IGAD
ICRC
ICTY
IMO
IL
INRA
INRO
ICJ
ITU
IBRD
INMARSAT
IIP
ITALY
IEFIN
IACI
ILO
INTELSAT
ILC
ITRA
IDA
INRB
IRC
INTERPOL
IA
IPR
IRAQI
ISRAELI
INTERNAL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
IBET
INR
IEA
IZPREL
IRAJ
ITF
IF
KDEM
KU
KPAL
KNNP
KCRM
KZ
KN
KS
KJUS
KTFN
KSCA
KV
KISL
KPAO
KPKO
KIRF
KTIA
KIPR
KFLO
KFRD
KTIP
KAWC
KSUM
KCOM
KAID
KE
KTDB
KMDR
KOMC
KWBG
KDRG
KVPR
KTEX
KGIC
KWMN
KSCI
KCOR
KACT
KDDG
KHLS
KSAF
KFLU
KSEO
KMRS
KSPR
KOLY
KSEP
KVIR
KGHG
KIRC
KUNR
KIFR
KCIP
KMCA
KMPI
KBCT
KHSA
KICC
KIDE
KCRS
KMFO
KRVC
KRGY
KR
KAWK
KG
KFIN
KHIV
KBIO
KOCI
KBTR
KNEI
KPOA
KCFE
KPLS
KSTC
KHDP
KPRP
KCRCM
KLIG
KCFC
KTER
KREC
KTBT
KPRV
KSTH
KRIM
KRAD
KWAC
KWMM
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KOMS
KX
KMIG
KRCM
KVRP
KBTS
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNAR
KPWR
KNPP
KDEMAF
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KGIT
KPAI
KTLA
KFSC
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KID
KOM
KMOC
KJUST
KGCC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KO
KNSD
KHUM
KSEC
KCMR
KCHG
KICA
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KCGC
KWWMN
KPAK
KWNM
KWMNCS
KRFD
MOPS
MCAP
MPOS
MARR
MO
MNUC
MX
MASS
MG
MY
MU
ML
MR
MILITARY
MTCRE
MT
MEPP
MA
MDC
MP
MAR
MASSMNUC
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MD
MI
MEETINGS
MK
MCC
MEPN
MRCRE
MAS
MIL
MASC
MC
MV
MTCR
MIK
MUCN
MEDIA
MERCOSUR
MW
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTRE
MEPI
MQADHAFI
MAPS
NO
NATO
NL
NP
NZ
NSF
NI
NH
NG
NAFTA
NU
NASA
NR
NATOPREL
NSSP
NSG
NA
NT
NW
NK
NPT
NPA
NATIONAL
NPG
NSFO
NS
NSC
NE
NGO
NDP
NIPP
NRR
NEW
NZUS
NC
NAR
NV
NORAD
OTRA
OPCW
OVIP
OAS
OREP
OPIC
OIIP
OPRC
ODIP
OEXC
OPDC
OSCE
OIC
OSCI
OECD
OFDP
OFDA
OMIG
OPAD
OFFICIALS
OVP
OIE
OHUM
OCS
OBSP
OTR
OSAC
ON
OCII
OES
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PTER
PINS
PINR
PREF
PK
PROP
PA
PARM
PBTS
PMAR
PM
PGIV
PE
PRAM
PHUH
PHSA
PL
PNAT
PO
PLN
PAO
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PF
PEL
PBIO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PAS
POL
PREO
PAHO
PMIL
POGOV
POV
PAK
PNR
PRL
PG
PREFA
PSI
PINL
PU
PARMS
PRGOV
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POSTS
PROG
PORG
PTBS
PUNE
POLICY
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PP
PS
PY
PTERE
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PRELP
PSEPC
PGOVE
PINF
PNG
PGOC
PFOR
PCUL
POLINT
PGGV
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PGOVLO
PHUS
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RELATIONS
RW
RO
RM
RP
ROOD
RICE
RUPREL
RSO
RCMP
REACTION
REPORT
REGION
RIGHTS
RF
RFE
RSP
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
SU
SCUL
SNAR
SOCI
SF
SA
SHUM
SENV
SP
SR
SY
SANC
SC
SMIG
SZ
SARS
SW
SEVN
SO
SEN
SL
SNARCS
SNARN
SI
SG
SN
SH
SYR
SAARC
SPCE
SHI
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SYRIA
SWE
STEINBERG
SIPRS
ST
SNARIZ
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SIPDIS
SAN
TC
TI
TBIO
TH
TSPL
TRGY
TSPA
TPHY
TU
TW
TS
TAGS
TK
TX
TNGD
TZ
TF
TL
TV
TN
TD
TIP
TR
TP
TO
TT
TFIN
THPY
TERRORISM
TINT
TRSY
TURKEY
TBID
US
UK
UNGA
UP
UZ
UNMIK
USTR
UNO
UNSC
UN
UNESCO
UNAUS
UNHRC
UY
UG
UNHCR
UNCND
USOAS
USEU
UNICEF
UNEP
UV
UNPUOS
UNCSD
USUN
UNCHR
UNDC
USNC
UE
UNDP
UNC
USPS
USAID
UNVIE
UAE
UNFICYP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09OTTAWA858, CANADA BY-ELECTIONS: CAN LIBERALS ARREST SLUMP?
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09OTTAWA858.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09OTTAWA858 | 2009-11-05 19:55 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa |
VZCZCXRO0857
OO RUEHGA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0858/01 3091957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051955Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0043
INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000858
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CANADA BY-ELECTIONS: CAN LIBERALS ARREST SLUMP?
REF: OTTAWA 766; OTTAWA 777
OTTAWA 00000858 001.2 OF 003
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Voters go to the polls in four federal
by-elections in Quebec, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia on
November 9 (ref a). Although the contests will not change the
balance of power in the House of Commons, pundits are looking for
signs that the federal Liberals can pull themselves together in the
face of slumping national polls - even though the Liberals are
unlikely to win any of the four seats. A competitive Liberal
finish in at least one of the two Quebec by-elections would go some
way toward putting the party's recent troubles in Quebec (ref b)
behind it. On October 27, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff hired
veteran strategist Peter Donolo as his new Chief of Staff in an
effort to "right the Liberal ship." For their part, the surging
Conservatives are sitting pretty, with nothing to lose and
something to gain through at least second place showings in two
ridings, a chance to reclaim a traditional seat, and a crack at an
upset. End summary.
¶2. (U) On October 4, PM Stephen Harper called two federal
by-elections in Quebec, and one each in British Columbia and Nova
Scotia, for November 9. The Bloc Quebecois held the Quebec
"ridings" (districts) of Hochelaga (Montreal) and
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup. In British Columbia,
the New Democratic Party (NDP) held New Westminster-Coquitlam
(Vancouver), and Conservative-turned-Independent MP Bill Casey held
the rural Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit
Valley.
JOSTLING FOR SECOND PLACE IN QUEBEC?
¶3. (U) The two vacant Quebec seats have been Bloc Quebecois
strongholds since 1993, and their most recent incumbents had won
significant pluralities in 2008. In Hochelaga (Montreal), the Bloc
won the seat with 49.6% of the vote in 2008, to the second-place
Liberal with 20.6%. In the current race, Bloc candidate Daniel
Paille, a former Quebec Minster of Industry and Trade and now a
professor at Montreal's highly regarded economic graduate school
(HEC), has emphasized economic development, social security,
language, and culture. According to local media, the main fight is
for second place in this urban, strongly sovereignist suburban
riding. His principal challenger is Liberal candidate Robert
David, a university lecturer. David's campaign has emphasized both
social issues and his close friendship with federal Liberal leader
Michael Ignatieff, whom he met while studying public administration
at Harvard University. The Conservatives and the NDP have run
aggressive campaigns. The Conservatives have relied heavily on
telephone and recorded messages promoting the government's economic
stimulus program, while the NDP has underscored its support of the
French language, including sponsoring a recent debate in Ottawa
reinforcing the need for immigrants to Quebec to learn French
"first and foremost," and fielding a number of French-speaking NDP
MPs in the riding, including the party's sole federal Quebec MP,
Thomas Mulcair (Outremont), trade critic Peter Julian, critic for
the francophonie Claude Gravelle, official languages critic Yvon
Godin, and the youngest MP in the Commons, Niki Ashton.
¶4. (SBU) In Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, the
Conservatives reportedly believe they have a chance to retake the
sprawling, rural eastern Quebec riding after sixteen years in Bloc
hands, despite polls that have the party well behind the Bloc
Quebecois. The Conservatives finished second in the riding -- with
30% to the Bloc's 46% -- in the 2008 federal election, but managed
to halve the Bloc's plurality over its score in 2006. The
candidates' ability to deliver federal funding for the riding and
infrastructure has dominated the race, as well as constituency
issues. Conservative candidate Bernard Genereux, a local mayor and
businessman, is running against well-connected Bloc insider Nancy
Gagnon, a communications advisor to Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe and
a former assistant to Bloc House leader Pierre Paquette. Observers
believe Liberal candidate Marcel Catellier to be a distant third,
but Quebec Liberal lieutenant Marc Garneau has dropped in to help
campaign, as well as Garneau's immediate predecessor, Denis
Coderre, who spent October 26 campaigning in the riding in what
many saw as a possible sign that Liberal rifts may be healing.
AmConGen Quebec City contacts have noted with interest that Prime
Minister Stephen Harper is the only federal party leader who has
not visited the riding (so far) in this campaign, and predicted a
low turn-out (as is the norm for by-elections generally).
OTTAWA 00000858 002.2 OF 003
A "PHOTO FINISH" IN B.C.?
¶5. (SBU) In British Columbia, the race for New
Westminster-Coquitlam is tight, according to AmConGen Vancouver
contacts. The local media has predicted a "photo finish" between
the NDP and the Conservatives, each of which has held the riding at
various points in recent years. The NDP recaptured it in 2006, and
held it in 2008 by a slim 3% over the Conservative candidate (41.8%
to 38.8%). In 2008, the Liberal candidate trailed at 11.2%, and
the Liberal candidate in this race is "a relative unknown,"
according to one local commentator. Both the NDP and Conservative
candidates have municipal political experience. A local EKOS poll
suggests that women may sway the vote in this race, but it is still
unclear whether their votes will flow to the NDP due to its strong
stance on women's issues, or to the Conservatives' "tough on crime"
female candidate. The Conservatives' law and order agenda played
well in the riding in 2008. For the NDP, the race has also been
an opportunity to test the impact of its opposition to the blending
of the federal and provincial sales taxes into one harmonized sales
tax (HST) in the province, according to NDP national director Brad
Lavigne. The province will implement the HST on July 1, 2010.
Lavigne underscored that the NDP is the sole party unequivocally
against the tax, and the party hopes that public anger will
motivate voters to vote.
RETURN TO THE FOLD IN NOVA SCOTIA, OR TAKE A CHANCE ON THE NEW?
¶6. (U) Observers in the rural riding of
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (Nova Scotia) will look
to see whether traditional Conservative voters return to the fold.
The seat is a longtime Conservative stronghold, but voters
re-elected Conservative-turned-Independent MP Bill Casey with 69%
of the vote in the 2008 federal election after PM Harper expelled
him from caucus in 2007 for voting against the federal budget.
Strong Conservative support on November 4 in the House of Commons
for a Conservative private member's bill to abolish the long-gun
registry could play well in the rural riding. The federal NDP is
reportedly anxious to test the coattails of the popular Nova Scotia
NDP, which won a historic majority government in the province in
June. The Nova Scotia NDP won the staunchly Conservative riding of
neighboring Cumberland North in June, and some local media have
suggested that the NDP may have surged in the late stages of the
race (based on a strong provincial NDP ground-game, and residual
animosity toward PM Harper over Casey's expulsion) and could be on
track for an upset win. The Liberal candidate has also attempted
to capitalize on Casey's ejection, but local Liberal organization
is reportedly weak after the June provincial election, in which it
won only 11 seats in the 52-seat provincial legislature. Federal
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has visited the riding to bolster
support in a campaign that regional media suggest will turn on very
local issues.
REFOCUSING THE LIBERAL MESSAGE
¶7. (SBU) In Ottawa, Ignatieff has moved to lift morale in the face
of sliding national polls that shown Liberal support even below
that for his predecessor, Stephane Dion. An October 26 Ipsos Reid
poll reported Liberal support at 25%, compared to 26.3% for Dion in
the 2008 election. In the same poll, the Conservatives surged to
40% nationally, and to 41% to the Liberals' 32% even in the Liberal
heartland of Ontario. On October 27, Ignatieff shook up his inner
circle, replacing loyalist Ian Davey (one of his "+2" for his
February 19 meeting with President Obama, as well as for a October
23 lunch with Ambassador Jacobson) with Liberal PM Jean
Chretien-era strategist veteran Peter Donolo as Chief of Staff.
The turn-over was confused, with Davey's romantic partner,
Ignatieff's Communications Director Jill Fairbrother, publicly
denying the appointment while Ignatieff simultaneously announced it
to reporters. Davey reportedly remains in Ignatieff's office as an
advisor.
¶8. (SBU) Donolo left a partnership with leading polling firm "The
Strategic Counsel" to join Ignatieff, and is described as savvy,
OTTAWA 00000858 003.2 OF 003
experienced, and well plugged-in to the press corps. Observers
credited Donolo with crafting focused messaging for Chretien with
populist appeal to "Main Street" voters. In public comments,
Liberal MPs expressed relief at Donolo's arrival, with one
observing that "we feel like a fever has broken... we're on the
mend." National President of the Liberal Party Alf Apps noted that
"nuts and bolts" membership and fundraising groundwork has already
been done, but the focus now has to shift to content and messaging:
"Peter understands what it takes to put the winning formula back
together again." Donolo insisted publicly that he wants to take a
low profile for the time being. Conservative Party contacts have
commented privately to PolMinCouns, however, that Donolo's
experience was exclusively in government, never in opposition - a
very different set of skills.
COMMENT
¶9. (SBU) The upcoming by-elections are a mixed bag and -- given
the traditionally lower voter turn-out in by-election races --
appear likely to turn less on national than on local issues. With
nothing to lose, the surging Conservatives are sitting pretty,
hoping for at least second place showings in target suburban and
Quebec ridings, a chance to reclaim a traditional seat, and a crack
at an upset. In contrast, the Liberals similarly have no seats to
lose, but are under pressure to show that they have turned the
corner, particularly in Quebec. Expectations for Donolo are
exceptionally - perhaps impossibly -- high, but his arrival is too
recent to have a genuine impact on the Liberals' fortunes in the
by-elections. The NDP will be looking for confirmation that its
recent about-face on supporting the minority Conservatives in the
House of Commons has not alienated its traditional base. End
Comment.
¶10. (U) This message was in collaboration with AmConGens Quebec
City, Montreal, Halifax, and Vancouver.
JACOBSON