

Currently released so far... 12478 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AU
ASEC
AE
AF
AORC
AEMR
AMGT
ABUD
AFFAIRS
APER
AS
AMED
AY
AG
AR
AJ
AL
AID
AM
AODE
ABLD
AMG
AFIN
ATRN
AGAO
AFU
AN
AA
ALOW
APECO
ADM
ARF
ASEAN
APEC
AMBASSADOR
AO
ASUP
AZ
AADP
ACOA
ANET
AMCHAMS
ACABQ
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APCS
AGMT
AINF
AIT
AORL
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ACBAQ
AFGHANISTAN
ADANA
ADPM
AX
ADCO
AECL
AMEX
ACAO
ASCH
AORG
AGR
AROC
ASIG
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
BL
BR
BO
BA
BD
BM
BK
BG
BU
BB
BH
BTIO
BY
BEXP
BP
BE
BRUSSELS
BF
BIDEN
BT
BX
BC
BILAT
BN
BBSR
BTIU
BWC
BMGT
CA
CASC
CVIS
CM
CH
CO
CU
CD
CWC
CI
CS
CY
CMGT
CF
CG
CR
CB
CV
CW
CE
CBW
CT
CPAS
COUNTERTERRORISM
CJAN
CODEL
CIDA
CDG
CDC
CIA
CTR
CNARC
CSW
CN
CONS
CLINTON
COE
CROS
CARICOM
CONDOLEEZZA
COUNTER
CL
COM
CICTE
CIS
CFED
COUNTRY
CJUS
CBSA
CEUDA
CLMT
CAC
COPUOS
CIC
CBE
CHR
CTM
CVR
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CACS
CAN
CITT
CARSON
CACM
CDB
CAPC
CKGR
CBC
EC
EG
EPET
ECON
ETRD
EFIN
EIND
EMIN
ENRG
EAID
EAGR
EUN
ETTC
EAIR
ENIV
ES
EU
EINV
ELAB
ECIN
EFIS
ELTN
EWWT
ECPS
ECONOMIC
ENGR
EN
EINT
EPA
ELN
ESA
EZ
ER
ET
EFTA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EUMEM
ETRA
EXTERNAL
EI
EUR
EK
ERNG
ENGY
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENERG
EINVEFIN
ENVR
ECA
ELECTIONS
ETC
EUREM
ENNP
EFINECONCS
EURN
ECINECONCS
EEPET
EXIM
ERD
ENVI
ETRC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ETRO
EDU
ETRN
EAIG
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
EIAR
EXBS
ECUN
EINDETRD
EREL
EUC
ESENV
ECONEFIN
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINVETC
IZ
IT
IR
IS
IN
IC
IAEA
IO
ICAO
IWC
ID
IV
ISRAEL
IAHRC
IQ
ICTR
IMF
IRS
IDP
IGAD
ICRC
ICTY
IMO
IL
INRA
INRO
ICJ
ITU
IBRD
INMARSAT
IIP
ITALY
IEFIN
IACI
ILO
INTELSAT
ILC
ITRA
IDA
INRB
IRC
INTERPOL
IA
IPR
IRAQI
ISRAELI
INTERNAL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
IBET
INR
IEA
IZPREL
IRAJ
ITF
IF
KDEM
KU
KPAL
KNNP
KCRM
KZ
KN
KS
KJUS
KTFN
KSCA
KV
KISL
KPAO
KPKO
KIRF
KTIA
KIPR
KFLO
KFRD
KTIP
KAWC
KSUM
KCOM
KAID
KE
KTDB
KMDR
KOMC
KWBG
KDRG
KVPR
KTEX
KGIC
KWMN
KSCI
KCOR
KACT
KDDG
KHLS
KSAF
KFLU
KSEO
KMRS
KSPR
KOLY
KSEP
KVIR
KGHG
KIRC
KUNR
KIFR
KCIP
KMCA
KMPI
KBCT
KHSA
KICC
KIDE
KCRS
KMFO
KRVC
KRGY
KR
KAWK
KG
KFIN
KHIV
KBIO
KOCI
KBTR
KNEI
KPOA
KCFE
KPLS
KSTC
KHDP
KPRP
KCRCM
KLIG
KCFC
KTER
KREC
KTBT
KPRV
KSTH
KRIM
KRAD
KWAC
KWMM
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KOMS
KX
KMIG
KRCM
KVRP
KBTS
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNAR
KPWR
KNPP
KDEMAF
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KGIT
KPAI
KTLA
KFSC
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KID
KOM
KMOC
KJUST
KGCC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFTFN
KO
KNSD
KHUM
KSEC
KCMR
KCHG
KICA
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KCGC
KWWMN
KPAK
KWNM
KWMNCS
KRFD
MOPS
MCAP
MPOS
MARR
MO
MNUC
MX
MASS
MG
MY
MU
ML
MR
MILITARY
MTCRE
MT
MEPP
MA
MDC
MP
MAR
MASSMNUC
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MD
MI
MEETINGS
MK
MCC
MEPN
MRCRE
MAS
MIL
MASC
MC
MV
MTCR
MIK
MUCN
MEDIA
MERCOSUR
MW
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTRE
MEPI
MQADHAFI
MAPS
NO
NATO
NL
NP
NZ
NSF
NI
NH
NG
NAFTA
NU
NASA
NR
NATOPREL
NSSP
NSG
NA
NT
NW
NK
NPT
NPA
NATIONAL
NPG
NSFO
NS
NSC
NE
NGO
NDP
NIPP
NRR
NEW
NZUS
NC
NAR
NV
NORAD
OTRA
OPCW
OVIP
OAS
OREP
OPIC
OIIP
OPRC
ODIP
OEXC
OPDC
OSCE
OIC
OSCI
OECD
OFDP
OFDA
OMIG
OPAD
OFFICIALS
OVP
OIE
OHUM
OCS
OBSP
OTR
OSAC
ON
OCII
OES
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PTER
PINS
PINR
PREF
PK
PROP
PA
PARM
PBTS
PMAR
PM
PGIV
PE
PRAM
PHUH
PHSA
PL
PNAT
PO
PLN
PAO
PSA
PHUMPGOV
PF
PEL
PBIO
POLITICS
PHUMBA
PAS
POL
PREO
PAHO
PMIL
POGOV
POV
PAK
PNR
PRL
PG
PREFA
PSI
PINL
PU
PARMS
PRGOV
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POLITICAL
PARTIES
POSTS
PROG
PORG
PTBS
PUNE
POLICY
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PP
PS
PY
PTERE
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PRELP
PSEPC
PGOVE
PINF
PNG
PGOC
PFOR
PCUL
POLINT
PGGV
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PGOVLO
PHUS
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RELATIONS
RW
RO
RM
RP
ROOD
RICE
RUPREL
RSO
RCMP
REACTION
REPORT
REGION
RIGHTS
RF
RFE
RSP
RIGHTSPOLMIL
ROBERT
SU
SCUL
SNAR
SOCI
SF
SA
SHUM
SENV
SP
SR
SY
SANC
SC
SMIG
SZ
SARS
SW
SEVN
SO
SEN
SL
SNARCS
SNARN
SI
SG
SN
SH
SYR
SAARC
SPCE
SHI
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SYRIA
SWE
STEINBERG
SIPRS
ST
SNARIZ
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SIPDIS
SAN
TC
TI
TBIO
TH
TSPL
TRGY
TSPA
TPHY
TU
TW
TS
TAGS
TK
TX
TNGD
TZ
TF
TL
TV
TN
TD
TIP
TR
TP
TO
TT
TFIN
THPY
TERRORISM
TINT
TRSY
TURKEY
TBID
US
UK
UNGA
UP
UZ
UNMIK
USTR
UNO
UNSC
UN
UNESCO
UNAUS
UNHRC
UY
UG
UNHCR
UNCND
USOAS
USEU
UNICEF
UNEP
UV
UNPUOS
UNCSD
USUN
UNCHR
UNDC
USNC
UE
UNDP
UNC
USPS
USAID
UNVIE
UAE
UNFICYP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNIDROIT
UNDESCO
UNCHC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 08TELAVIV2247, U.S./IS DIALOGUE ON LEBANON: SUPPORT MODERATES,
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08TELAVIV2247.
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHTV #2247/01 2731205
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 291205Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8646
INFO RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 4814
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5246
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 4458
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 2823
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 5219
RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA PRIORITY 0875
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2080
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 2071
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0305
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 1461
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 6537
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM PRIORITY 0541
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 7523
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T TEL AVIV 002247
SIPDIS
NEA FOR PDAS FELTMAN; NSC FOR MCDERMOTT; DIA FOR ASMAR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PTER MARR IS LE SY IR UN
SUBJECT: U.S./IS DIALOGUE ON LEBANON: SUPPORT MODERATES,
BUT DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW
Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham. Reason 1.4 (B/D)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 17, NEA Principal Deputy
Assistant Secretary for NEA Jeffrey Feltman chaired an
Embassy Tel Aviv-Washington interagency delegation
participating in the first joint U.S./Israeli dialogue on
Lebanon at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) in
Jerusalem. Overall, the Israelis, while displaying a
sophisticated analysis of Lebanon and Hizballah, maintained a
focus on near-term security threats at the expense of a
long-term plan to neutralize Hizballah, stabilize Lebanon,
and prevent further conflict. Both sides agreed that
Hizballah has made political gains and has continued to rearm
since the passage of UNSCR 1701 in August 2006, and that it
is critical to support and strengthen the moderates in
Lebanon, led by March 14. Contrary to U.S. analysis, the GOI
perceived the Doha Agreement and subsequent Lebanese cabinet
statement as significant setbacks for moderates in Lebanon.
The Israelis were skeptical that Hizballah could be
constrained via internal Lebanese politics. Israel
encouraged direct USG support for March 14 over GOL
institutions, fearing Hizballah could come to control the
latter. On UNSCR 1701, the Israeli delegation said that
issues like Ghajar, the Sheba'a farms, and overflights were
peripheral and should only be addressed within a broader
context that emphasized ending arms transfers from Syria to
Lebanon, strengthening UNIFIL, and disarming Hizballah.
Feltman urged a focus on both ending arms transfer and
preventing Hizballah from using the arsenal it already has.
On Ghajar, he noted that a resolution would not be a victory
for Hizballah, but would remove a card already in its hand
that could be used as an excuse to resume hostilities with
Israel. The IDF and MFA were uncomfortable with what they
described as UNIFIL's "trust us" approach on Ghajar, but were
intrigued by Feltman's question as to whether supplemental
U.S. assurances might help bridge some gaps. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------------
GOI: March 14 in Lebanon heroic, but failing
--------------------------------------------
¶2. (C) Nimrod Barkan, Director of the MFA Center for
Political Research (INR A/S equivalent) laid out Israel's
analysis of the current situation in Lebanon, beginning with
the premise that "the situation in Lebanon is not a result of
what Israel does or does not do." Barkan said the GOI
foresees a Shia demographic majority in Lebanon within ten
years, and believes the "March 14 moment" to be temporary.
"We foresee a March 8-Hizballah majority after the 2009
elections." Nonetheless, the United States and Israel should
work to support moderates and to capitalize on Hizballah's
Lebanese identity to restrain its influence and autonomy,
including its ability to unilaterally initiate hostilities
with Israel. Barkan said the GOI had interpreted the Doha
Agreement and the August 2008 cabinet statement as victories
for Hizballah that further legitimized its "resistance" credo
and strengthened its influence over the Lebanese government,
commenting that March 14 should have compromised before the
May 2008 violence when it was stronger relative to Hizballah.
March 14 is "courageous" but neutered. "Their participation
in the welcoming ceremonies for Samir Quntar was their final
acquiescence." Additionally, while March 8 is succeeding in
peeling away March 14 members like Walid Jumblatt
domestically, Hizballah is also gaining regional acceptance.
"They were invited to Cairo, they are talking with the
Jordanians." Additionally, Barkan expressed concern that the
August 2008 Lebanese cabinet statement seemed to authorize
the downing of an Israeli plane overflying Lebanon, which
would likely draw an Israeli military response. "If a pilot
is lost, all hell will break loose." However, Barkan praised
President Michel Sleiman, saying "he's not Lahoud, he's not a
Syrian puppet, and he's not working under Hizballah diktat."
¶3. (C) Barkan admitted that Israel's bellicose rhetoric
threatening to hold the Lebanese state responsible for
Hizballah's actions was aimed at deterring Hizballah
aggression. He understood the U.S. perspective on the need
to distinguish between the state and Hizballah in any future
conflict, but Barkan's view may not reflect policy makers'
views. Feltman emphasized the need to strengthen Lebanese
security services as counterweights and alternatives to
Hizballah, especially to counter Michel Aoun's argument that
Lebanon's Christian minority should ally itself with the Shia
minority for protection in a "Sunni sea." Barkan disagreed,
arguing that support for the LAF was meaningless, as the LAF
would never confront Hizballah directly and might eventually
fall under its control. Barkan suggested instead that the
Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF) should be
strengthened as a "Sunni militia," but seemed to contradict
himself when he said later that Saudi Arabia's policy of
arming Sunni groups in Lebanon was "bankrupt."
¶4. (C) PDAS Feltman shared the U.S. analysis that "we are
better off in Lebanon now than in June 2006," noting that
Hizballah is now extremely unlikely to initiate the kind of
cross-border attack that sparked the 2006 war, but
acknowledging that Hizballah would still like to hit Israel
"without crossing a red line," including via targeting
overflights or IDF troops in northern Ghajar. Feltman
pointed out that Hizballah's arms are now being discussed via
the National Dialogue, and that most Lebanese agree that an
autonomous Hizballah is a danger to Lebanon. Doha placed
further constraints on Hizballah and took political disputes
off the street and into the cabinet and parliament, where PM
Siniora and March 14 currently hold an advantage.
---------------------------------------
Hizballah strong, but can be restrained
---------------------------------------
¶5. (C) LTC Etay Shapira of the Israeli Defense Intelligence
(IDI) followed Barkan with an assessment of Hizballah's
military strength. Acknowledging that the IDF bases its
conclusions on "intelligence" whereas UNIFIL and the UN
demand "evidence," Shapira asserted that Hizballah has not
relinquished the south, as UNIFIL Commander Graziano asserts,
but has adapted to the presence of UNIFIL and the LAF by
maintaining a lower profile. "The LAF and UNIFIL interpret
UNSCR 1701 as meaning 'no weapons in public.'" IDI believes
that the Hizballah has 20,000 rockets south of the Litani,
but UNIFIL cannot find them without entering homes, which it
is unwilling to do without LAF consent. Shapira noted that
even if UNIFIL requested permission to enter homes, the LAF
would tip off Hizballah. Shapira also cited "very good
intelligence," but not proof, that Hizballah has built
"underground cities" inside the UNIFIL zone, including
command and control centers, barracks, and firing positions.
As Hizballah rearms, the IDI noted that Israel is less
concerned with the number of weapons and more concerned with
their increasing sophistication. The IDI assess that
Hizballah's anti-aircraft weapons can hit Israeli helicopters
or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's), but not yet manned
aircraft. They also believe Hizballah's medium-range
missiles are more accurate, allowing Hizballah to attack
specific targets in Tel Aviv, and that the "surprise"
promised by Nasrallah in the event of another conflict could
be a missile strike on Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona.
¶6. (C) Shapira acknowledged that newly-appointed LAF
Commander Jean Kahwaji was "not Hizballah's first choice,"
but that his appointment would not change the LAF's overall
posture toward Hizballah.
¶7. (C) Hizballah has grown in military strength, Barkan
noted, adding that Hizballah's biggest constraint is its
"Lebanese" (as opposed to "Iranian" or "Jihadi") identity,
which implies a need to maintain cross-confessional
alliances. While Jihadis in the movement continue to press
for more aggression against Israel, Hizballah leadership
wants neither civil war nor another massive Israeli attack.
Hizballah is also being reined in by Iran, which does not
want Hizballah drawn into a conflict with Israel until Iran
has achieved a nuclear weapons capability. Barkan argued
that every Israeli strike on Lebanon since Operation
Accountability in 1993 has improved security along Israel's
northern border by establishing a stronger and stronger
Israeli deterrent. Nonetheless, Barkan emphasized that
Hizballah will "never" give up its arms and wants to
"reestablish a balance of terror," including by avenging the
death of Imad Mughniya. "Their list of potential excuses
goes well beyond Sheba'a Farms and Israeli overflights."
Therefore, returning Sheba'a would merely strengthen
Hizballah, weaken Israel, and do nothing to help Lebanese
moderates.
¶8. (S) PDAS Feltman agreed that Hizballah's Lebanese
identity is the best way to constrain Hizballah politically
and militarily. "Hizballah has adopted the veneer of a
nationalist movement, and to maintain it they need support
beyond their Shia base." Because the Sunnis will never
support Hizballah, it relies on Michel Aoun for Christian
cover and national influence. In the 2009 parliamentary
elections, a few key Christian districts will decide the
election. Therefore, the United States wants to support
President Sleiman and the LAF to marginalize Aoun in the 2009
elections, because marginalizing Aoun would hurt Hizballah.
However, Feltman noted that "all bets are off" if Iran orders
Nasrallah to strike Israel, and that Nasrallah's threats to
target Israeli overflights should be taken seriously.
"Nasrallah tends to be very transparent."
--------------------------------------------- --
Next Steps: Implementing 1701, including Ghajar
--------------------------------------------- --
¶9. (C) To maintain pressure on Hizballah, Deputy Director
General (DDG) for International Organizations (IO A/S
equivalent) Eviatar Manor recommended a renewed push by
Israel and the United States for fuller implementation of
UNSC 1701. The U.S. and Israel have a shared interest to
preserve calm in south Lebanon, improve Israel's deterrence
against Hizballah, strengthen UNIFIL, and fully implement
UNSCR 1701. Unfortunately, Manor asserted, "the UN and
Europeans have focused on peripheral issues like Ghajar,
Sheba'a, and overflights," hoping that Israeli concessions
will somehow strengthen Lebanese moderates. Instead, he
urged that attention be focused on Hizballah's rearmament and
defiance of the weapons-free zone in south Lebanon.
Relatively new to the Lebanon portfolio, Manor later
acknowledged that many of his concrete recommendations (push
the LAF to toughen up, make UNIFIL more assertive, convince
the Europeans of the Hizballah threat, do more to prevent
weapons transfers across the Syrian-Lebanese border,
including by implementing recommendations of the two reports
of the Lebanon Independent Border Assessment Team (LIBAT))
had been the focus of U.S. and Israeli efforts since 2006, to
little or no avail. Alon Barr, FM Livni's chief of staff,
suggested that UNSCR 1747's prohibitions on arms transfers by
Iran and the attendant UN sanctions committee could be
another avenue t attack the problem of Hizballah rearmament.
¶1. (S) Feltman disagreed with Manor's assertion tht
Ghajar, Sheba'a, and overflights were "peripheal" issues,
noting that Sheba'a has become a natonal issue, with PM
Siniora and others arguing that "resistance by diplomacy" was
a preferable meas to "liberate" Lebanese territory.
"They're chalenging Hizballah's monopoly on the meaning of
"esistance" and Hizballah's assertion that force isthe only
way to deal with Israel. The Lebanese publicly refuse to
negotiate with Israel, but in fact, they're negotiating with
Israel already over Ghajar via the LAF-UNIFIL-IDF tripartite
mechanism. We can help Siniora and his allies and undermine
Hizballah by demonstrating that diplomacy works. Ghajar is a
good place to start. This would be a victory for moderates
and a defeat for Hizballah." Feltman encouraged the GOI to
accept Lebanon's response to the UNIFIL proposal (August 22,
2008) for IDF withdrawal from northern Ghajar and asked
whether additional assurances from the USG, to supplement the
UNIFIL plan and Lebanon's written response, would help allay
Israeli concerns over UNIFIL's protection of the Syrian
Alawites who now hold Israeli citizenship in northern Ghajar
and the timing of a UNIFIL-LAF handover. Feltman also
stressed the importance of countering the narrative that was
established in Lebanon after the Israeli prisoner exchange
with Hizballah -- a deal which led many Lebanese to conclude
that Hizballah and Israel are colluding.
¶11. (C) LTC Vered Pollak of the IDF/J5 Middle East Division
emphasized that the main Israeli interest in northern Ghajar
is the prevention of a security vacuum in a town straddling
the Blue Line, noting it was a nexus for smuggling and at
least one attempted attack on IDF troops pre-2006. LTC
Pollak emphasized that Israel has no interest in being north
of the Blue Line if these concerns are addressed. Rather,
Israel has a strategic interest in withdrawing from all
Lebanese territory in accordance with UNSC resolutions. She
referred to UNIFIL Force Commander Graziano's proposal of
August 22, 2008 as "very thin" and said the IDF wants
specific guarantees on the security and final disposition of
the residents of northern Ghajar. She noted that the IDF
believes that the Lebanese want the opposite: a temporary
agreement to secure IDF withdrawal without references to a
more permanent solution. DDG Manor complained that, when
Israel asked for specific details pertaining to civil and
security arrangements, UNIFIL's answer was "trust us."
¶12. (C) Feltman also noted that some use of the concept of
armistice, but not necessarily the details of the 1949
Israel-Lebanon Armistice Agreement abrogated in 1967, could
be used to create a "positive agenda" between Israel and
Lebanon. "The Armistice still has positive connotations in
Lebanon. It is referenced in the Taif Accord and Siniora's
seven point plan. Hizballah cannot oppose it." Feltman
noted that Lebanese leaders such as Siniora have noted that
using the cover of "armistice" would allow more creative
approaches on the Lebanese side. A revived Israel-Lebanon
Mixed Armistice Commission (ILMAC) with a UN role might be a
useful cover for more meaningful Israeli-Lebanese
discussions. (NOTE: In a subsequent meeting, Barkan told
PolCouns that our armistice proposal was intriguing, but
warned that Israel has concerns about allowing the UN to take
a mediating role. END NOTE.)
------------------------------------
Next Steps: Supporting the Moderates
------------------------------------
¶13. (C) DDG Barkan concluded that Israel's sole objective in
Lebanon was to weaken Hizballah and postulated that this
exclusive focus may explain why Israeli policy does not
always track with of the U.S. desire to strengthen the
institutions of the Lebanese state. Feltman interjected that
the U.S. policy of strengthening state institutions was aimed
precisely at weakening Hizballah. LTC Pollak noted that the
IDF does not see the LAF as part of the "moderate camp" but
rather as a reflection of Lebanese society. "Weapons
provided to the LAF by the United States are more likely to
be turned on Israel than Hizballah. At a minimum, there
should be clear benchmarks for U.S. support to the LAF that
require them to better implement UNSC resolutions, including
by securing the border and going after Hizballah."
¶14. (C) PDAS Feltman reiterated that the U.S. and Israel
shared goals of protecting Israel while building a strong,
secure Lebanese state. "We must build a state that is an
alternative to Hizballah and shows Christians they can be
protected without pandering to Hizballah. The LAF is loved
and respected by the Lebanese public, and will gain influence
at the expense of Hizballah if it is proven capable,
credible, and backed by international support." Barkan
agreed, noting that Israel had always had more success
dealing with strong unitary actors like Egypt and Jorda --
but including Hamas in Gaza -- than weak states and non-state
actors.
--------------------------------
Taking Syria out of the Equation
--------------------------------
¶15. (C) The Israeli side emphasized that Syria remains an
important factor in Lebanon, but agreed that a return to
Syrian hegemony would be no panacea. Barkan dismissed as
nonsense the notion that Israel wanted to return Lebanon to
Syrian control. Feltman said he was relieved to hear that,
and asked that Israel keep U.S. interests in mind during its
talks with Syria. "Your security is a priority for us, but
we also have independent interests in Lebanon that would be
undermined by another conflict or a Syrian return." Barkan
said that while Lebanese President Michel Sleiman is "not a
Syrian puppet," he understands that Syria's enemies in
Lebanon do not live long, adding that Israel went out of its
way ("perhaps too far") to assure to Syria during the 2006
war that it would not be attacked. Feltman asked why Israel
was not holding Syria responsible for its support to
Hizballah and other violent actors in Lebanon. Barkan noted
Israel is trying to pull Syria away from Iran. "Even if
Syria does not reform its behavior after an agreement, it can
be convinced to limit support for Hizballah and stay out of
any Israeli conflict with Iran." IDF representatives viewed
Lebanon as a permanent problem, but argued that Syria can be
fixed. Barkan further noted that the subject of Syrian
weapons transfers to Hizballah had only recently been
included in Israeli proximity talks with Syria. LTC Shapira
noted that, separately, Israel had passed "strong messages"
to Syria via France and the UN Disengagement Observer Force
(UNDOF) that transfers of advanced surface-to-air missiles
and accurate long-range surface-to-surface missiles to
Hizballah would cross Israeli red lines. "But we acknowledge
that Syria might not be left out of the next war."
¶16. (U) U.S. Participants in PDAS Feltman's delegation
included:
Ms. Meaghan McDermott, NSC/NESA Director for Syria and Lebanon
Mr. Amir Asmar, Senior Intelligence Officer, Office of Middle
East
and North Africa, Defense Intelligence Agency
Mr. Matthew Irwin, NEA Lebanon Desk Officer
Mr. Marc Sievers, Political Counselor
Col. John Chere, U.S. Army Attach
Mr. Peter Vrooman, Deputy Political Counselor
Mr. Michael Honigstein, Political Officer
¶17. (U) Israeli Participants included:
Yosef "Yossi" Gal, Senior Deputy Director General (DDG), MFA
Eviator Manor, DDG for UN and International Organizations
Division, MFA
Nimrod Barkan, DDG and Head of the Center for Policy
Research, MFA
Yacov Hadas-Handelsman, DDG Middle East and Peace Process
Division, MFA
Barukh Binah, DDG, North America Division, MFA
Alon Barr, Chief of Staff to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Tal Becker, Policy Advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
David Siegel, Director for UN Political Affairs, MFA
Dan Arbell, Director of North America Department, MFA
Yifat Amedi, Middle East Affairs Department, MFA
LTC Vered Pollak, Head of Middle East Division of the IDF/J5
(Strategic Affairs)
LTC Etay Shapira, IDI
¶18. (U) PDAS Feltman cleared this message.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
CUNNINGHAM