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### Viewing cable 09NAHA67, DPJ SENSES USG FLEXIBILITY ON FRF RENEGOTIATION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09NAHA67 | 2009-10-05 09:30 | 2011-05-04 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Naha

`

    VZCZCXRO1525
    PP RUEHNH
    DE RUEHNH #0067/01 2780930
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 050930Z OCT 09
    FM AMCONSUL NAHA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1124
    INFO RUALBCC/YOKOTA AB HQ USFJ
    RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
    RHMFISS/COMMARCORBASESJAPAN CAMP BUTLER JA
    RHMFISS/18WG  KADENA AB JA
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/SECNAV WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1110
    RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 1193

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000067

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EAP - FO/J
    SECDEF FOR OSD-GREGSON/MITCHELL/SCHIFFER/ HILL/BASALLA/
    PACOM FOR J00/J01/J5
    USFJ FOR J00/J01/J4/J5
    NSC FOR RUSSELL

    E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/5/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
    SUBJECT: DPJ SENSES USG FLEXIBILITY ON FRF RENEGOTIATION

    CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond F. Greene, Consul General .
    REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
    ¶1. (C) Summary: The Hatoyama administration is working towards
    an early decision over implementation of the 2006 Futenma
    Replacement Facility (FRF) plan, but deep rifts remain between
    the Defense and Foreign Ministry leadership.  Defense Minister
    Toshimi Kitazawa's September 25-26 visit to Okinawa has
    solidified his view that implementing the package as negotiated
    remains the best option for both Okinawa and the Alliance.
    Strong statements in favor of the current FRF plan from Okinawan
    leaders, including the Governor, have undermined the political
    argument within the DPJ government for revising the bilateral
    agreement.  Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada
    continues to harbor doubts over the cost and environmental
    impacts.  Furthermore, senior Japanese officials say that he is
    confident the U.S. government will instead accept the merger of
    Futenma MCAS and Kadena Air Base, while continuing to implement
    the relocation of 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam.  Okinawan
    leaders have forcefully pressed back against the Kadena merger
    option, while Japanese bureaucrats have warned that the U.S.
    will not accept a delinking of the FRF and Guam moves.  Both
    groups urge the U.S. to be clear on its position over FRF
    implementation during private meetings with Hatoyama Cabinet
    officials.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) Senior Ministry of Defense (MOD), Foreign Ministry
    (MOFA), and Cabinet Office officials say that the Hatoyama
    government is intent on reaching a consensus on implementation
    of the Alliance Transformation package before the President
    visits Tokyo in November at the very latest.  Foreign Minister
    Okada, Defense Minister Kitazawa, Okinawa Affairs Minister Seiji
    Maehara, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirafumi Hirano held their
    first joint meeting on October 2 in an effort to formulate a
    common position.  Osamu Izawa, Foreign Policy Assistant to CCS
    Hirano, said that the ministers have decision-making authority
    on the issue -- as long as they agree, Prime Minister Hatoyama
    will go along with their recommendation.  Izawa added that
    Hirano will then be charged with selling the decision to
    Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa
    and the two coalition partners, likely a tougher task than
    bringing the PM on board.  The most immediate challenge, he
    added, will be to bridge the wide gap that has emerged between
    Defense Minister Kitazawa, who favors implementing the current
    package, and Foreign Minister Okada, who continues to harbor
    doubts about both the contents of the package and the level of
    U.S. commitment to implementing it.

    ¶3. (C) MOD Parliamentary Vice Minister Akihisa Nagashima told
    the Consul General on September 30 that his ministry's focus now
    is on finding a quick way to back away from the DPJ's campaign
    pledges to reopen the realignment package.  ""We need to just get
    this FRF discussion over with and turn our attention to more
    positive-sum issues in the Alliance"", he added.  Nagashima said
    that the September 25-26 visit by Defense Minister Kitazawa
    (accompanied by Nagashima and top MOD bureaucrats) was critical
    to forming the MOD's position in support of the existing plan.
    He commented that Okinawan leaders made clear they want the
    Schwab FRF plan -- as the most pragmatic solution to the Futenma
    issue -- to proceed as scheduled and strongly oppose the ""Kadena
    option"" espoused by FM Okada and Okinawan Affairs Minister
    Maehara.  Nagashima noted that he reversed his position on the
    Kadena option after meeting with Okinawan leaders, some of whom
    assailed him personally over his past support for collocating
    USAF and USMC aircraft at Kadena Air Base.

    Internal Divisions

    ------------------

    ¶4. (C) MOD Defense Policy Bureau Director-General Nobushige
    Takamizawa confirmed to the Consul General on October 1 that
    Nagashima has had a change of heart on Kadena, but added that
    Nagashima has still tasked the Ministry to do a study on Kadena

    NAHA 00000067  002 OF 004

    as a backup in case the Camp Schwab FRF plan fails to happen.
    Takamizawa said that Nagashima's concerns are fueled by the
    continued reluctance of Foreign Minister Okada to implement the
    current FRF plan.  In internal meetings, Okada has cited both
    the negative environmental impact and cost, especially at a time
    when the DPJ is seeking to scale down major public works
    projects.  In addition, Okada is convinced that the U.S. is
    flexible, especially if Japan were to offer a concession related
    to Afghanistan.  Takamizawa said that Okada also believes that
    the proposal to draw down 12 USAF F-15s at Kadena will open the
    door to reconsidering the collocation of Marine aircraft there.
    MOFA Foreign Policy Bureau Deputy Director General Masafumi
    Ishii offered a similar assessment, adding that Okada seems
    confident he can get the U.S. to accept the Kadena merger in
    exchange for a continuation of the Maritime Self-Defense Force
    (MSDF) refueling mission in the Indian Ocean.

    ¶5. (C) MOFA U.S.-Japan Security Division Director Takei
    Funakoshi said that Okada's calculations are based in large part
    on input from Okinawan-elected People's New Party (PNP) Policy
    Chief Mikio Shimoji.  He said Shimoji has assured Okada that 1)
    there are only 25 aircraft currently at Futenma MCAS, thus it
    would not impose a significant burden on the airfield; 2) there
    are senior U.S. officials who are sympathetic to the Kadena
    merger plan; and 3) the U.S. is willing to trade additional
    assistance in Afghanistan for concessions on the FRF.  Funakoshi
    added that Okada has rejected assertions by bureaucrats that the
    U.S. will never accept delinking the FRF from the Marine Guam
    relocation, which the Hatoyama government has informally agreed
    internally to keep funding.  ""We tell him that there is no way
    Congress will fund Guam without the FRF,"" Funakoshi stated, ""but
    he won't believe that until he hears it directly from the
    U.S.-side.""

    Okinawan Views Take Back Seat

    -----------------------------

    ¶6. (C) Funakoshi said that, after Defense Minister Kitazawa's
    Okinawa visit, Okada now understands that the DPJ will pay a
    political price in Okinawa by pursuing the Kadena option.  The
    impact would be mitigated, however, if the U.S. agreed to
    implement the other elements of the realignment package.  For
    their part, local leaders are becoming increasingly concerned
    over the direction of DPJ thinking and the Hatoyama government's
    tin ear to local realities.  During an October 3 public meeting
    with Governor Hirokazu Nakaima, Okinawa Minister Maehara stated
    that doubted that the FRF could be successfully completed and
    said that the DPJ government would study other options.  Nakaima
    strongly insisted back that the Hatoyama government should
    implement the plan now in light of the willingness of Nago
    leaders to host the facility.  Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro
    expressed exasperation to the Consul General over the DPJ's
    efforts to tamper with the Nago relocation plan, something he
    has personally worked towards for 13 years.  ""After all that
    time and here we are just months away from success,"" he stated,
    ""and they are putting it all at risk for no reason.""  He added
    that ""no one around Kadena wants those aircraft, but we do --
    this should be easy.""  Kadena Mayor Atsusane Miyagi separately
    echoed this sentiment, asserting that ""moving Futenma to Kadena
    isn't burden reduction, it is just burden reallocation.""

    Sending a Clear Message

    -----------------------

    ¶7. (C) Local press in Okinawa speculated that Maehara's
    confident public statements about changing the FRF plan
    reflected DPJ success in recent high-level consultations with

    NAHA 00000067  003 OF 004

    the U.S. government.  Under a front page headline ""Opening
    Pandora's Box,"" the Ryukyu Times on October 5 asserted that the
    U.S. government has signaled to Foreign Minister Okada a
    willingness to renegotiate the FRF.  Reacting to this sort of
    media speculation, Okinawan leaders as well as MOFA and MOD
    officials have urged the U.S. government to lay down a firm
    marker with DPJ Cabinet officials on Kadena specifically and the
    FRF more generally.  The Cabinet Office's Izawa said that the
    U.S. should not overestimate the ability of the new government
    to come to the right conclusion on its own.  ""We are in the
    midst of a very chaotic policy process and ministers have very
    little time to digest complicated information,"" he added, ""it is
    important that senior U.S. officials be respectful, but very
    clear when it comes to your positions if you want them to make
    the right decisions.""  MOD Vice Minister Nagashima suggested to
    the Consul General that explicit U.S. statements over the
    problems with Kadena, including in public, are helpful in
    shaping the internal discussion.

    MOD Seeking a Positive-Sum Solution

    -----------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Nagashima said that MOD is trying to find a way to shift
    the focus of discussions from changing past agreements to
    creating new momentum in the Alliance.  ""We used the FRF to
    differentiate ourselves from the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party]
    during the campaign, but we know now this is too costly in terms
    of our relations with both the U.S. and Okinawa,"" Nagashima
    commented.  He added that ""what we need to do instead is to
    insert some positive-sum ideas to show that we are different.""
    Nagashima said that he will push for a shift in public focus
    from base realignment to expanded roles, missions, and
    capabilities (RMC) for the SDF.  ""We should also press for joint
    training between the GSDF and the U.S. Marine Corps to show the
    value of the Marine presence in Okinawa,"" he added.  Nagashima
    highlighted these themes during a public symposium in Tokyo on
    October 1, stating that rather than getting wrapped up in
    renegotiating the FRF, the DPJ government should demand that we
    implement our past RMC agreements with equal vigor.  Among a
    list of initiatives, Nagashima said that Japan should ""insist""
    on the SDF's right to train and operate in Guam given the
    billions it is investing there for USMC facilities.  Nagashima
    also suggested that the DPJ review LDP decisions that left MOD
    paying for most of a realignment bill that really should be
    funded out of the central budget.

    ¶9. (C) MOD's Takamizawa outlined a similar strategy he is
    pushing with the political leadership for keeping the FRF on
    track while allowing the DPJ to show progress on implementing
    past commitments to the public and coalition partners.  ""We
    should compile a package that includes implementing the FRF,
    expanding joint training, training relocation measures within
    Okinawa, and starting a dialogue on environmental issues related
    to U.S. bases,"" he added.  MOD Local Cooperation Bureau Director
    General Inoue separately emphasized to the Consul General that
    the environmental concerns raised by the base-hosting Governors
    like Kanagawa's Matsuzawa (DPJ) and Okinawa's Nakaima should not
    be dismissed out of hand.  ""They are not seeking SOFA
    revisions,"" he continued, ""but rather practical transparency
    measures to address real public concerns over the impact of
    environmental accidents within base areas.""  DG Inoue noted that
    base-hosting governors are strong supporters of the realignment
    package, and potential allies in the effort to walk the DPJ down
    from their manifest.  Takamizawa said that the U.S. side need
    not feel pressure to agree right away to any specifics if the
    Japanese side presents a ""package"" of initiatives to support FRF
    implementation.  ""If the U.S. side just agrees to a process to
    discuss these issues, it will provide the DPJ significant
    political cover to continue the FRF.""

    NAHA 00000067  004 OF 004

    Comment: Keeping Up the U.S. Front

    ----------------------------------

    ¶10. (C) The DPJ government will be actively probing for U.S. red
    lines in the coming days so they can formulate at least a
    general policy direction ahead of the Defense Secretary visit
    later this month.  They will likely focus on our level of
    flexibility on Kadena and willingness to delink the FRF from
    other elements of the realignment package.  Advocates of the
    Kadena merger are calculating that the reaction from Okinawa to
    their plan will be tempered if the U.S. agreed to maintain the
    course on the Guam relocation and base consolidation.
    Maintaining clear linkages will significantly raise the
    political bar for the DPJ government to make any changes to the
    existing plan.  More broadly, local Okinawan leaders and Tokyo
    bureaucrats have taken considerable political risks by endorsing
    the current FRF plan as the only viable option from an
    operational perspective.  A clear confirmation from the U.S.
    side that this is indeed the case will help them make the case
    that the current plan is the best one for both the Alliance and
    for Okinawa.
    GREENE

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