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Nickel
Ranttm:
I Know I Don't Know -
(Sort of ... Why Silver is a Slacker)

by Edgar J.
Steele

October 21, 2007

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"There will be no
repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable
decline."
--- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable
Trust Company), quoted in the New York Times, Friday, October 25,
1929

My name is Edgar J. Steele.  This is a
Nickel Rant.

Black Monday came on a Friday this
generation.  What I find amazing is that financial markets manipulated to
the degree that America's have become can show any spontaneity at all.

October 19, 1987 marked the largest
single-day drop in the history of the stock market - ever (beyond, even,
any day leading into Depression I).  Twenty years later to the day, last
Friday, the market showed a similar, albeit lesser, desperation on the part of
sellers during the closing hours of trading.

Coincidence or simple mass hysteria?
I consider it simply to be a reflection of the general lack of imagination
prevalent today that makes movies like Rocky VI or those modeled on comic books
possible.  "Well, gollee, Martha - it happened 20 years ago, so it jist
might happen agin, right on the very same day.  We better sell!  And
let's go see that terrific Silver Surfer movie agin."

Will the stock market carnage continue
tomorrow?  Who knows, but I doubt it.  Perhaps down another couple
hundred, but more likely back up a hundred or so.  After all, WhirlyBen
need fling only a few hundred billion dollars to his friends yet again and some
of it will have to find its way into stock prices.

Will the stock market crash?  Only
upwards, I think, as its measuring stick, the dollar, disappears in the flames of
hyperinflation.

Flat-Footed Financial
Finaglers

I noticed that, early in the day on Friday,
the governmental and banking (but I repeat myself) forces busily were shoring up
the dollar, hammering down gold and silver as usual.  It may well be that
the sudden market swoon caught them flatfooted while endeavoring to close the
dollar just above the magic level of 78 on that index of 6 international
currencies.  I'm sure the surprise market decline distraction led to
the dollar closing on a Friday below 78 for the second time this month (just the
second time this generation, in fact, and only the third time
ever).

Undoubtedly, the US dollar will slip even
more today (Sunday) in the overseas markets, leading into tomorrow's
festivities.  I think that 78 now has been breached for good.  Coming
up soon:  76.  Then a slow grind into 70, but even that will yield,
eventually, with all precious metals, especially gold, silver and lead,
skyrocketing.

Dead Dollar
Walking

As you well know, WhirlyBen Bernanke has
announced His clear intention to levitate the
general markets at the expense of the US Dollar.  This past week that
party line was taken up by others in the Administration and by other key Western
leaders, with the added explanation that the dollar's decline now, miraculously,
is seen as both desirable and beneficial to all and will occur
"gradually."  What's more, Japan now has joined Iran in announcing that it
no longer will use the dollar as its own reserve currency (does that mean we
will be invading Japan after Iran?).  Now it is set in concrete: Dead
dollar walking.  In fact, expect another round of interest rate cuts from
the Fed real soon.

Ah, it seems like only a few short days ago
that America still was touting the concept of a "strong dollar."  Wait a
minute!  It was just a few short days ago.  How quickly the
party line can change in the Bush leagues, eh?

I Know that I Don't
Know

That brings us to silver.  "I don't
know."  That's my answer to all your questions concerning silver just
now.  I simply don't know why it isn't keeping pace with - outstripping, in
fact - gold, as the dollar twists in the wind.  I have seen others
speculate, some that it has become just another industrial metal these days,
others with even more ridiculous notions.  They don't know enough, even, to
admit that they don't know, either.

Just a single notion keeps bobbing up in my
fevered brain about silver's recalcitrance:  maybe they are letting gold
slip upward faster than silver so that there won't be as much of an outcry when
they announce its confiscation.  After all, they did it through FDR,
and for the only logical reason, the very reason that still exists today:
why let us rubes profit from the bulk of gold's increase in value when all they
have to do is declare it illegal to own, then "buy" it from us at what history
will show to have been a ridiculously low price, then finally clean up after
they massively devalue the dollar? They laughed when I first warned about the
possibility of gold
confiscation, but now I see the topic increasingly being thrown about on
Internet forums and web sites.

The REAL Silver
Surfers

They have made clear that silver will not be
confiscated, of course.  Keep the price of silver knocked down in
order to force out as many weak hands as possible, then swoop in and clean up
just before the price goes hyperbolic.  It's been done, time and again,
folks, just like that, with all manner of commodities.  I dunno, but that
is the only explanation that makes any sense to me.  Problem is, it is
inconsistent with a gradual decline in the dollar's value.

Sigh.  I just don't
know.

However, I do know that the dollar
is doomed and gold is at risk.  Only silver and, to a degree, numismatic
coins (now defined to be those worth twice their melt value), seem to me
to be safe conveyers of purchasing power from this side of the economic chasm
now yawning before us to the other side.  The profit opportunity, though
significant, is secondary to the need to preserve your purchasing power through
Depression II.

Lead, the Other
White Metal

And all the foregoing, of course, is
secondary to location, location, location, safety, nutrition and protection, in
that order.  Keep your priorities straight:  you can't eat silver and
you won't be able to buy your way to safety with it from the bowels of the
cities when the time comes.  That's why I now classify lead as a precious
metal, too.

Your mileage may differ.  And keep in
mind that I am the guy you see standing on the corner wearing the sandwich board
that says, "Repent now, for the end is near!"  Also keep in mind
that even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

New
America.  An idea whose time has come.

My name is Edgar J. Steele.  Thanks for listening.  Please visit my
web site, http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/,
for other messages just like this one.
-ed

Copyright ©2007, Edgar J. Steele

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